HoWWrses: Game Thread

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I don't see how this matters. You're tinfoiling pretty hard if you think I'm a wolf here.

You're on the wolf side of my reads and it's not even tin-foils . Like I said to AM though, I've got several people ahead of you and don't plan to push you unless I see something that really jumps out at me when I re-read what I missed.
 
Excuse me while I go sort out my feelings and pick up the pieces of my shattered heart. I can't believe you'd do this to me on Valentine's Day of all days AM!


Because she wasn't reading wolf on thread and in PM.









and her pocket is apparently as warm as mine :yeahright:
So did she not share with you that she was shooting people like she did with WZ?
 
You're on the wolf side of my reads and it's not even tin-foils . Like I said to AM though, I've got several people ahead of you and don't plan to push you unless I see something that really jumps out at me when I re-read what I missed.
Why though
 
Based on how events happened, I just don't see Dubz being a wolf. If she was, she would've redirected AM to someone who the wolves had already submitted a kill on with a ninja (assuming here, but it makes sense). That makes 0 sense if you are a wolf.

That plus tone, which I've been reading Dubz village for that since D1. Pming with her since we became pm partners has solidified that.
Plus, if they thought she would flip village, then it'd be like, uh auto turn on Dubz for that. The only reason it only sounds plausible is because AM flipped chaos. If she flipped village that'd be obviously nah. Too risky.
 
So did she not share with you that she was shooting people like she did with WZ?
No. I didn't ask her for her abilities.
She told me her original target was MJ
She told me that her results last night were that she was redirected but her action still went through
She played me.

Mel. You're breaking my heart. You basically voted to lynch mini-mel...
I know, I'm sorry, but after all that I'm very disinclined to lynch you again.
 
No. I didn't ask her for her abilities.
She told me her original target was MJ
She told me that her results last night were that she was redirected but her action still went through
She played me.


I know, I'm sorry, but after all that I'm very disinclined to lynch you again.
And who exactly did you think all this implicated?
 
And who exactly did you think all this implicated?
My theory was that she went to act on MJ, but was redirected to Ski, but MJ was doing something (killing, investigating, idk what) in ski's stall so since ski was dead but MJ was there and was her primary target anyway, the action went through.
Like I said, it made sense to me in my head when I tin-foiled it last night, but it started to look less and less likely today.
 
My theory was that she went to act on MJ, but was redirected to Ski, but MJ was doing something (killing, investigating, idk what) in ski's stall so since ski was dead but MJ was there and was her primary target anyway, the action went through.
Like I said, it made sense to me in my head when I tin-foiled it last night, but it started to look less and less likely today.
1uxe8e.jpg
 
Do you want the tin-foil reason or the logical one? (tin-foil is ridiculous, would not follow)
well i mostly want the logical one but i always like a good tinfoil about me, and since @PippyPony isn't playing, someone's gotta do it
 
I'm still good with a stagg lynch tomorrow. AM may have been a third party, but I bet she was actually wolf-hunting as she likes village more then wolves. Going to think on my dubz read, though I'm thinking it leans her village. She would definitely save chaos (especially if its AM) no matter affiliation so NAI for her. Its really weird AM didn't tell mel she was third party...but I don't see why he would lie about that.
 
My theory was that she went to act on MJ, but was redirected to Ski, but MJ was doing something (killing, investigating, idk what) in ski's stall so since ski was dead but MJ was there and was her primary target anyway, the action went through.
Like I said, it made sense to me in my head when I tin-foiled it last night, but it started to look less and less likely today.

My theory is that she could vote redirect and shoot in the same night. Went to vote redirect MJ and shoot whoever (Capri, if she told Dubz the truth) and the redirector was likely RNGed to which action it would redirect, RNGed to the shooting so the vote redirect went ahead on MJ while the shooting got redirected onto Ski
 
My theory is that she could vote redirect and shoot in the same night. Went to vote redirect MJ and shoot whoever (Capri, if she told Dubz the truth) and the redirector was likely RNGed to which action it would redirect, RNGed to the shooting so the vote redirect went ahead on MJ while the shooting got redirected onto Ski
..................

This makes more sense.

Now I know what it feels like to be outside of the village bloc....I don't like it....
 
Catching up now and will address some things I missed in a minute.

well i mostly want the logical one but i always like a good tinfoil about me, and since @PippyPony isn't playing, someone's gotta do it

Happy to answer, but first I'd like to know how you hard cleared AM.

I was kidding since she had it out for you today.

K
 
I will also mention that I finished my work and am now hydrated for the first time in quite some time. Which makes me disappointed with the lack of activity here :pigeon:
I'm still up. Got something to discuss?
 
Always. What do you think of Dubz after the AM flip?

Edit: Also, what are your thoughts on Snowy?
AM told me explicitly to trust Dubz.

So naturally I didn't trust her, but been talking to her in PM and she's made sense. Specifically, if dubz is a wolf and had set up AM, like we both apparently came to the same conclusion about, then she would have redirected AM's kill to someone other than who the wolves were targetting, then outed AM on thread. The way things played out would not have been the efficient wolf play. now there are only 2 deaths (ski and AM) where there could have been 3.

That tin foiling and actually following through that Snowy showed earlier makes me lean her village.
 
And why does this hold weight now?
It doesn’t, it’s the set up to the joke in the next line haha.

Also, is this not something a wolf would if they really believed AM was chaos?
Nahh too much effort for how snowy wolfs. Could’ve just gone with the village tide, sheeped the dubz info, but she took time to process something independently and figure out where she wanted to vote.
I know wolf snowy when I see her. This isn’t it.
 
AM told me explicitly to trust Dubz.

So naturally I didn't trust her, but been talking to her in PM and she's made sense. Specifically, if dubz is a wolf and had set up AM, like we both apparently came to the same conclusion about, then she would have redirected AM's kill to someone other than who the wolves were targetting, then outed AM on thread. The way things played out would not have been the efficient wolf play. now there are only 2 deaths (ski and AM) where there could have been 3.

That tin foiling and actually following through that Snowy showed earlier makes me lean her village.
I feel like you're in one of those like dark detective shows where the two are talking to each other but the one turns and starts talking to camera to explain things
 
Working on catching up rn



Okay but in another post you say that you think Lupin is a smart player and should not be lynched for a while, so where does this land Lupin for you on your wolf to village spectrum?

I never said this? 😵

I think I'm overthinking Capri, possibly. AM is my priority and my secondary now includes Kara/Stagg/Mel.

And how do you feel about Kara/Stagg/Mel after the AM flip?

I mentally cannot work out a way that AM had good intentions last night (I have one theory but I am uncertain about it given the write-up and the likelihood that it would even happen). If she flips wolf mel will be my next vote and wz shoots up to one of my top village peeps. If she flips village then stagg would likely be where I would vote given their little interactions

###lynch stagg###

Lunch is over, will try to be back later but who knows.

Why?

AM emotionally manipulated me at the end for the win for her and cheezit. He was the original wolf, she was his convert.

I don't really appreciate the way stagg brought it up in this context actually lol
Also think it's weird that he reacted like that if he expected her to flip wolf

Sorry if you don't like it, but that's what it felt like. You've got a soft spot for AM and the lovey-dovey/puppy-dog eyes posts felt like you were buying it.

Life alert commercial for horses: "Help, I've fallen and I can't giddyup!"

This made me giggle for too long.

I know what I said about third parties but something doesn't feel right about lynching AM after catching up on the thread.

I don't really like the huge bandwagon forming on her either

This feels...wrong. What didn't feel right. The bandwagon explanation reads like a manufactured thought. Like you noticed people have been talking about sketchy bandwagons all game and used it for reasoning. No me gusta.
 
Um does it implicate anyone?



Maybe it was a faulty item? That's the only villager reason I can think that it wouldn't be redirected, but tell dubz that it was. In regards to the bolded - I had this thought too.



So you have to submit a lynch vote at night? You can't change it during the day?
Typically you have to submit as a night action whose vote you are going to steal for the next day's lynch, but often you can then change who the vote is on as you would any other vote. I think there's variations on this as well, whether or not the vote you personally cast is also where the stolen vote goes, or that you can place your vote and the stolen one on separate people. I think there's a variation where the person whose vote is stolen can still cast it on thread, but it won't actually count in the tally when the mod does announces who dies. All kinds of weird vote crap.
 
No I don't think so. Again that's part of why I don't like the way stagg reacted.
I did read them as attempts to emotionally manipulate. No offense, but often the person being emotionally manipulated doesn't see it, that's often why it is often effective. And I have seen AM effectively emotionally manipulate you. You may not think she succeeded last night or that she was doing it, but I think she was, and I don't think you always see it when she's doing it.
 
lynch AM

Something is sketch. A redirector item that said it worked for dubz, but didn't for AM. Two people trying to kill ski. And now AM's pm partners that she's sharing info with are the two people who are easiest for her to pocket. I don't know why she would have even submitted a night action, if she can change her vote throughout the day. I had in my notes the vote stealer was probably chaos, and that would make sense with the 2nd kill. And she probably could even have told mel and wz she was 3rd party and on their side and they would want to keep her around whatever their affiliation. It will give me good info to lynch her. And otherwise we are going to be wondering for the rest of the game whether we made the right choice to not lynch her... Giving me flashbacks to lion king where we kept sketchy lyra around for so long when she was a wolf.

Note that AM was getting some headway in her defense by using PM. Note that when PM intel is brought to the class, more people are able to judge it and also come forward with their own info that may be useful.

Keeping things to yourselves in small little factions leaving the rest of the village in the dark and unable to offer their own judgments, only sets us all up to be in the shadow of your blind spot.
 
Look I see sketch surrounding her last night. I had a guess the vote stealer was chaos. It would make sense with what happened. I'm not hunting for chaos, it just makes sense to me. Either way, I think I'd be second guessing myself the rest of the game if I left her alive. And if she is villager, at least it will make me less suspicious of you and maybe mel.
@WildZoo Remember that time it was pretty clear Coffee was chaos and we all, village and wolf alike, let her live too long for some reason?

Snowy wanting to go after our #1 suspect for non-village in any form, is not at all wrong and I'm not sure why you're trying to shade her for it.

Wanting chaos to die is not a sure sign of NOT being a wolf, since they want 3rd party dead as much as the next villager. That said, it's hardly the wrong move and something to criticize someone for.
 
The shelter kill is bothering me from my overnight thoughts. She wasn't being that active, so why kill her? Her ability was also something not really that worthy of if having found out, she needed to be killed for. It makes me wonder if capri and/or bryndi killed her so they could chat and have a vouch PM partner.
It seems like nowadays we mostly use PMs to destroy and betray and pocket and burn village to the ground. To answer your earlier question.
 
If her death will ruin it, yall arent doing a good job trying to convince us of whos actually a wolf. Id move back to Cray but it wouldnt matter if everyone else stays on AM
again, why? I'd love to hear an actual theory on what makes me the wolfiest one around

we have lurkers, Dubz & Mel up AM's butt, not sure if that makes them wolfy, but it's happened before for chaos with kill power to make friends with the wolf pack and work together, particularly more likely amongst players that trust each other

sure, there's the whole wolf in plain sight thing, and I would never point to my activity as a sign of being village because it's NAI. I would point to the fact that I think a lot of my advice is pro-village and if I were a wolf I just wouldn't have to try that hard. I think that

I'm not fake tunneling, I haven't been afraid to stand out, put my neck out as far as fighting and making enemies, and if Skim's quiet on me is anything to go by I'm not ringing her wolfdar, but she can correct me or let us know if she's unsure or just isn't caught up enough to give a read on me. Lupin or any of my PM partners can tell you right now I was definitely not pocketing them, and I'm not above doing that as a wolf if I'm not too afraid of who I'm PM'ing with. Lupin's not familiar with wolf me and Dina is a noob that apparently didn't like me not saying much to her. NK'ing quiet players, lurkers, or those not really familiar isn't my meta either. The list goes on and on. Granted I am someone with pretty good sense of my village and wolf meta to manipulate that. But my meta is pretty carefully chosen to the extent that I control it to be as good as I can make it for villager or wolf, and to switch it up to trick people would be a risk. Because I am naturally sketch, to change my wolf meta would be to actually do more "traditionally" wolfy things.

Like, don't take me off your list, but I still don't know why you're stuck on me, and I would really like it if you did some more wolf hunting elsewhere, not to take the heat off me, there is none, but because no matter what my affiliation is, if you're actually village, you are not doing village any favours with your wolf hunting. I'm not saying that to insult your intelligence. I mean that you could cast a wider net right now.

What do you think about Kara, Mel, Stagg, Lupin, capri, Snowy, and Dubz? They are basically the town leaders right now. Good for yourself to know where you stand on players like that. Genny and Skimble you want to watch out for in general. VMH & SAR as well. If I forgot to name someone for how special they are and should be watched, either I'm too tired or you're just not posting enough.

How familiar with players like Dina, MSU, killerleaf, cubs4rule, WM are you? Do you feel like you know their meta and can read them well?

We had like 30 players, yeah? I always assume up to 25% wolf ratio. That's high for this site, but not unseen. Larger games tend to favour villagers, because actually the more time a game goes on the more data the villagers have for wolf-hunting, so statistically such games favour village and some mods will increase the ratio. Plus it's better to be on the lookout. So we could have up to 6 wolves. Or, I should say 6 non-village as it would be way too high to have 6 wolves and a chaos, imho. Rule of thumb is that you should be considering at least that many suspects, you should be striving to come up with a list of 6 people. Some would say twice that number, 12.

Frankly I don't know if even I'm there in my analysis, but I can tell you that all the players I asked you about, I am watching for the reasons I stated. Those reasons are true, they are true even if you think I'm a wolf and I hope you can see that and will tell me who you will be lynching after I die and flip wolf per your theory. Will your current village worldview crumble when I flip village? No? Well then again, in that case who's next?

I'd also like for you to give me reasons for your stances.

:prof: WW assignment. Gosh I am pedantic and insufferable. Must be why they call me doctor. It's Latin for teacher and uptight dingus.
 
lynch capri

This is still where my wolf is. The bridle business is hard to ignore, but I trust that either WZ or Mel would catch AM if there were a hole, hopefully not both of them on the wrong end of the bamboozle.
they can't be trusted to catch her honestly

well, maybe Mel, not sure

@Melchizedek @WildZoo can you refresh me how this typically works for you 3?
 
So have I, but from leaving them alive until endgame. I would like to not waste a day lynching someone I know isn't a wolf when we don't have any wolves dead yet. It's not going to help.
It's also just occurred to me too, that beyond 3rd party being able to kill for crying out loud, they cause chaos, confusion, and distraction in other ways. Like, now we have to second guess everyone in the lens of "oh but wait look at all these lies AM told, like, what do we think about what she said about Stagg???" They sow doubt and confusion because you can't trust anything they said. So the LAL principle and if it isn't village it needs to die, isn't a bad one to follow.
 
why capri is wolfy

thank you

I see your more objective points about her on thread behaviour. I can't judge the tone thing because I don't feel versed in her meta. That said, if I had a good feel village read on other players calling for her head, I might be more interested. But at this point, I would basically have to take someone else's word for it. The D1 vote thing isn't enough for me, and neither is the other point. Point is, still don't really see it, but at least I understand where others are coming from and can now conclude that some people believe what they are saying about capri and it likely isn't just a case of wolf plot to throw someone's name around with the word wolf and holding out for that subconscious magic.

Any other players you want to explain to me why they're wolfy? Because some of you are really good at it, and I think you're one of them.
 
Lynch stagg
what is this show up 3 min till to vote after being a no show a lot of the day?

why do I feel like you're hardly playing? I felt this last game when you wolfed

being mousy wolf or village will get you lynched, unless you just learn epic silent ninja player skills like some
 
For whoever it was who asked earliet, this circle of eventa plus on thread tone makes me feel fairly confident that Dubz is village.
I'm WIFOM'ing on Dubz so hard right now

like, did she see AM's lynch coming, and decided to defend just to look innocent? When I wolf knows someone is going down, sometimes they will defend hard despite being on the opposite side of the majority of the village, for whatever psych you out reasons

same with Mel

like, anyone defending her, if they're like "but if I was a wolf why would I have wanted to look sketch by defending my buddy" it just makes me so suspicious

same with Kara and Lupin, as much as wolves will pull fake w/w fights on thread to look like villagers, they'll openly buddy each other to have the defense "but what are the chances we would be wolves and associate with each other like this"

do not like
 
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