Inflation is still very sticky. There is a shortage of skilled labor. Shortage of good experience. Shortage of human capital. Our nation exploded with the baby boomers generation because the post world war 2 economy meant there were a lot of people around to build new industries which helped economic growth and prosperity. Those days will not be repeated in current and future economies. The stock market will not perform the way it did the last 4 decades because productivity is not the same as our parents generation.
Young and futures generations have/will have different views of work. They lean more on their parents. Most young adults still LIVE with their parents. About 1 in 3 men between the age of 15-44 today are fathers, while about 50% of females of the same age are mothers. About 30% of men under age 35 are still virgins. There are economic and social reasons of why the birth rates are still declining, and in 15 years (by 2040), nearly 100% of our population growth will rely on immigrants - if we’re lucky. Because this is a global trend. The internet changed humanity’s mindset about life and the need to form families, and recent economic challenges exacerbated the attitude change towards life. Just look at declines in college enrollments, the 10M+ open jobs for the past few years, lack of labor participation, everyone asking for a raise to make ends meet, etc. Its the new normal.
Our society can’t function at elevated debt, elevated inflation, elevated median age, elevated shortages in affordable homes, etc. These economic trends are all happening all at once across the country for the first time in the history of the nation. It’s nice that our parents have nice nest eggs to retire on, but will their kids even get social security benefits when they retire? Unless inheritance and wealth transfer happens in a big way to young generations, most of those kids (now in their 40-50’s) didn’t save nearly the same amount as their parents adjusted for inflation. Specially with future taxes going up. Yes, we have nice and cool things today than 30-40 years ago, but the demand for more innovation and progress will become even more expensive at a time when debt is already servicing most things for consumers. More printed money will be needed to support and fix our economy from current and future cracks, and there are already many in the system today.
America has over 4,300 “banks”, while Canada has about 30. Canada population is about 10% of the US, yet, in America… it’s cool to have multiple credit cards and banks… and debt. Today, about 10% of our banks could be weeks to months away from collapsing due to lack of liquidity and inability to raise money and stay in business with good reserves. That number will likely increase during the age of mobile banking. It can take hours for bank customers to do bank runs on their banks at small and regional banks. As the Fed raises rates higher, which means less demand for lending, it will hit most of our financial institutions margins in a big way. We’re now seeing 5-15% spreads in interest rates for banks to give loans (depending on borrower’s credit); for mortgages, personal loans, small business loans, etc. So we will see less access to capital over the next 6-18 months, which means the economy will start to choke, less growth and bubbles bursting. Small business bankruptcies are already up, which means the commercial real estate industry (specially offices) will have more empty spaces with “for lease” signs. The owners of those properties will not be able to meet their loan obligations; as 1 trillion dollars of debt is due for refinancing this year at a higher interest rates, and another 1 trillion due next year. The CRE market is heading towards a train wreck.
Greedflation is screwing everything and it will only get worse. It’s effecting society’s values, as money continues to become the only motive.
Source:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-pull-back-from-values-that-once-defined-u-s-wsj-norc-poll-finds-df8534cd