Nor'east Ski WWeekend (Basics) - Game Thread

[Crayola227]

---

Members don't see this ad.

Whoops, you too.
Maybe.
Though I had kinda figured if Doc flipped wolf I was voting for you tomorrow because I, for some reason, had to convince him to lynch you instead of someone he wasn't even wolf reading. But I'll have to think on that one.

yes, I'd like to know more about this theory

 

[Crayola227]

Kingdom Trails is in Vermont, he was converted to a place in Maine, maybe he was converted one of the other times we visited Maine? *goes digging*

is there a visitation mechanism I don't know of?

 

[Crayola227]

Lynch Dina

Getting the convert is a great result. Makes life easier IMO.

If Dina isn’t the wolf then tomorrow I will go,back to WZ assuming she tried to gain some cred by throwing espana under the bus, because I don’t think anyone else is a wolf. But that is a lower possibility than Dina.

who was the lead candidate besides DocE? I thought it was Dina and WZ was on Dina. Couldn't she have tried harder to get me on Dina rather than sacrifice DocE for cred? I mean, it's trading one dead wolf for another so I get how that could be useful.

Dunno. Trying to figure out the odds of wolfy Dubz pulling off a successful self prez using Dina rather than bussing DocE, the idea being to figure out if what happened makes more sense for her to be wolf or village.

I'm leaning village but you never know.

 

[StartingoverVet]

Really? I’m pretty sure I’m high on the wolf kill list for tonight. I’m just saying I’m pretty sure I recall you pulling a similar tie tactic as a wolf before.

Don’t know what you are referring to, and possibly so, but the devils in the details, I promise you it was nothing like this situation.
I did lots of things as a wolf. And lots of things as a villager,,,and even crazier things as neutral or chaos.
I made lots of lynch votes as a wolf. Inlynched wolves as a wolf. I lynched villagers as a wolf. Do you see the fallacy in your argument, either there is a parallel or there isn’t, No way there is, cause wh6 would a wolf set up an almost automatic loss for his/herself, wouldn’t, end of story, this is fixation at its finest,

 

[StartingoverVet]

who was the lead candidate besides DocE? I thought it was Dina and WZ was on Dina. Couldn't she have tried harder to get me on Dina rather than sacrifice DocE for cred? I mean, it's trading one dead wolf for another so I get how that could be useful.

Dunno. Trying to figure out the odds of wolfy Dubz pulling off a successful self prez using Dina rather than bussing DocE, the idea being to figure out if what happened makes more sense for her to be wolf or village.

I'm leaning village but you never know.

I was the other candidate. Unless you are talking about a different lynch,

 

[Crayola227]

I think based on voting, dina, cray, zig and I are all in the strong village category, which leaves sov and wz. I’m really not sure where to go with that one. I feel like sov would be more likely to convert docE though, so that is where I’ll vote for now.

Lynch sov

I'm bad with VCA and not caught up, but I'd still like to hear your explanation on the specifics of how yours, dina, and ziggy's voting records are strong village.

 

[StartingoverVet]

Anyway I am shaking like a leaf from the flu or something, I gotta sleep.

Please please please leave the tie. And if not today’s then tomorrow,

Sov out,

 

[Crayola227]

I was the other candidate. Unless you are talking about a different lynch,

The lynch where DocE died.

If it was you and not Dina (I thought it could have swung that way) then it makes sense why I was only strongly considering WZ and DocE at the time, and swung to Doc. I forget anything I do or post or read about 2 posts down from anything that just happened.

 

[Crayola227]

I think based on voting, dina, cray, zig and I are all in the strong village category, which leaves sov and wz. I’m really not sure where to go with that one. I feel like sov would be more likely to convert docE though, so that is where I’ll vote for now.

Lynch sov

maybe I'm wrong in my perception that SOV was against Mel and DocE living? Or do you think that's just wolf-wolf on his part?

 

[Crayola227]

Omg you guys are literally the worst. No matter what I do, I can't get enough clearance these days to get night killed. Somehow everyone else is clear based on voting though. Ok.

lol on the last part

also lol on the NK thing, I feel ya sister. I'll have to go back to this point where SOV says he says ziggy sounds almost disappointed that I wasn't NK'd. Like, I kinda feel her confusion and surprise on that, at the same time...

 

[Crayola227]

I dunno, I just kinda got the feeling we were down to vanillas. And no one has stood out to me as seer-ish.


Of course

wasn't this a semi open set up game? or am I wrong? or was that not info given out?

 

[Crayola227]

Why is my early coffee vote suspiscious? I've put most of my votes in early.

Wolves, if they do vote a fellow wolf, often do it early if they think it won't have traction, or they're convinced that wolf is a lost cause already and may as well be so early on that it doesn't look like a bus, rather than be in the prime bussing location as the last 3 votes that act as a nail in the coffin.

I don't know what as going on with Coffee at the time.

Wolves are just as likely as anyone to vote early for all kinds of reasons, and especially on a fellow wolf.

Not saying this all makes you wolfy, but reasons why your Coffee vote doesn't make you bulletproof to suspicion. Not to answer for SOV. Just stating my opinions on voting patterns and behaviours in general.

 

[Crayola227]

Also you've never ended a day on a Mel vote either

OK this is a little concerning on SOV's part.

I mainly village read him because while everyone was up Mel's butt about how great he was wolf hunting, SOV seemed to perfectly grasp Mel's wolf meta, and it seemed like it was original thinking as well.

Yes, any wolf can figure out a way to shade any other wolf and make it sound good. And actually, SOV is perceptive enough that even as a wolf reading a fellow wolf's posts from a player such as Mel, to pick out the wolfiness and glean exactly what the meta is without playing with him a bunch. Shyte, I hear what sounds wolfy about a fellow packmate's posts when I know they're a wolf better than any other time.

Would he have been so accurate in pointing all that out on thread at a time when no one else seemed to be picking up on Mel's wolf meta? So perfectly?

Perhaps. I'm thinking all this through out loud.

 

[Crayola227]

That was the day I was flying and unavailable,

I asked mods if I could contingently move back to Mel if I was the lead lynch candidate at the end, and was given a big fat no.

contingency self prez would be kinda nice, but probably get pretty complicated for the mods if too many people did it lol

 

[Skimble]

I'm bad with VCA and not caught up, but I'd still like to hear your explanation on the specifics of how yours, dina, and ziggy's voting records are strong village.

I voiced suspicion on mel since d3 and pushed for others to vote for him. I was also early on the docE lynch. I wasn’t on the coffee lynch, but if I had been on when she did her fake reveal, I’d have been all over that lynch too.

Dina was the first to vote docE yesterday, I can’t really see her doing that as a noob, and she could have easily switched off him later in the day to lynch wz instead.

Zig is less voting and more interactions between her and Mel and coffee. They didn’t seem w/w to me.

maybe I'm wrong in my perception that SOV was against Mel and DocE living? Or do you think that's just wolf-wolf on his part?

I think it’s entirely possible it was w/w given the players involved.

 

[Crayola227]

I have been trying to tell people this about myself for the last two games and they don't listen. I don't bus much but if I do I'm not gonna half ass it, because then what is the point? Bussing isn't worth it if you don't get the village cred reward.

On the flipside, there are advantages to not bussing.

One is that it does somewhat strengthen your village cred when you ARE actually village and you DO actually get a wolf. The other part of it is that if you are a wolf, bussing or the lack thereof is NAI as a result.

Also as a wolf I like to avoid all the WIFOM you get when you're a damn villager on a wolf. Yes you pass up potential reward but staying off the radar is good too.

Anything in your wolf meta (not bussing) that helps your village game, can then be used sparingly as a wolf in reverse to strengthen your wolf game. I never bus, so when and if that day ever comes, it could be an ace up the sleeve.

I'd just as soon not bus and make my life that much easier whether I'm wolf or village.

 

[Crayola227]

Biggest interactions between doc and me is doc buttering me up....he was staunchly pro village SoV.. and complimentary of me. In hindsight, he is never nice to me, so that should have been a sign. And again, if we were wolfing together, he wouldn’t make it so obvious to defend me. That is just too dangerous. To me, it should be fairly obvious that there are zero signs I am a wolf.

But always easier to see that when you already know your own affiliation.

I felt DocE was trying to sly pocket me before he turned on my as a possible easy mislynch, and I've told wolves time and time again that is the number one way that I, personally, catch wolves.

It's possible the wolf/villager interaction he used with me he used with you in a wolf/wolf manner. The consistency of gameplay he shows there could be affiliation-based (he's buddying up to villagers) or it could be that he's just being good at applying his techniques evenly despite affiliation (he can do a good job treating villagers and fellow packmates similarly).

 

[Crayola227]

I find it interesting no one seemed to be upset when sporty was throwing ties around with cray, dina, and MSU.

We have two chances to get this right. Today and tomorrow.

were you upset?

sporty was village, who was supposed to be upset she was doing that? I wasn't around, MSU is village and dead, and Dina... we don't know.

This confuses me what you mean here.

 

[Crayola227]

I felt like this lynch in particular might be important, because it seems to me there absolutely would have been a wolf on the coffee lynch. But that wolf might have been killer if she was converted already. So less helpful than I had hoped.

Day 4 Hey You, No Sledding on the Groomed Trails! Lynch Tally

Coffee? (6) - AM, Dina, zigzag, SAR, killer, MSU
Sporty (1) - Cray
Mel (3) - Sporty, skim MJ
mutts () -
Skim (1) - dubz
MSU (1) - SOV
SOV () -
Ziggy (3) - coffee, Mel, dolphin

15/15 voting

lol as I just outlined, the wolves may have just decided not to be on it at all....

interestingly Coffee and Mel voted together. On a fellow wolf ziggy? To insulate ziggy from later scrutiny?

although Ziggy and Dina's placements don't look terrible

 

[Crayola227]

I am ok making a 2 way tie even if it includes me.

We have 3 lynch candidates...wz, me, and Dina, I just don’t see anyone else being lynched next 2 cycles. If wolf is one of the other 3 I guess wolves have deservedly won already,

If we lynch one person wrong.
2sketch 3 less sketch left
Then after wolf kill 2 and 2
If we lynch wrong again
1 sketch and 2 good left
After wolf kill wolves win,

If we lynch 2 players wrong...
1 sketch and 3 less sketch left
After wolf kill...1 and 2
We lynch sketch and villagers win.

Obviously anytime we get the right person right,,,we win.
so I will be trying to tie it up with wz and Dina. 2 of us die. 1 lives, we are good.

wat

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

were you upset?

sporty was village, who was supposed to be upset she was doing that? I wasn't around, MSU is village and dead, and Dina... we don't know.

This confuses me what you mean here.

At the time yeah, I figured it would end in 2 villagers dying

I guess by upset I mean that if Dina was a wolf, no other fellow wolf came to her rescue there, very WIFOM tho

 

[Crayola227]

I think anyone who tries to untie it later is a wolf in case only one of us gets lynched due to shenanigans.

don't follow at all

usually breaking ties and having one voted death is pro village

this reads like trying to kill more than one player, or one at RNG, and setting up the tie breaker to have shade, and said tie breaker is acting in a traditionally village manner and could easily be well meaning

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

DocE could've tied it up between dubs and him last night, not sure if he didn't think fast enough or didn't want them both killed

 

[Crayola227]

I'm at work sorry I don't have time to go back and find posts I'm looking for. I placed my lynch early so it didn't look like a band wagon and two votes does not make a band wagon either.

I already said one reason - no votes on Mel at all. How many wolves have you actually helped get rid of?

Using your meta as an excuse as to why you're village is a pointless argument. "Oh I'm not a wolf because I do this as a wolf" is wifom at best and detracts from actual analysis of your current gameplay. This is something you and dubz both do.

Here's proof of why it doesn't work. 2 nights ago you and dubz were on a DocE lynch. You both came off the lynch because"DocE would never do this as a wolf" and lo and behold he was.

this is all really great analysis, wolf or village

 

[Crayola227]

@Crayola227 can you please come back on earlier than 5 min before Lynch?

but last 3 votes it worked out so well

 

[Karabiner13]

Day 9 Kara Makes the Prettiest Ombre Lynch Tally

dinamite (2) - sov, dubz
sov (2) - skim, dinamite
dubz (1) - zigzag

😏 Tie! 😏

SOV and Dina are in the lead!

5/6
Missing: cray

Deadline 10pm est (45 min)

 

[Crayola227]

No, not at all. It just confuses me. Cray's actions yesterday would make her seem 100% village. She was on dubs, who had one more vote, and switched to DocE, lynching a wolf. I am unsure why a wolf would leave that person alive, as I can't figure out any way a wolf would've switched from a villager getting lynched, to a wolf. Maybe they just hoped she wouldn't be active today? Idk


If the tie thing panned out, it could actually be helpful. but I am not sure I trust everyone to not mess it up last second.

Lol not a seer, I wish.

they wouldn't kill me just because my blind vote killed a wolf

they kill those with suspected PRs, those who are impossible to get lynched/difficult to lynch, reading strong village, acting as a town leader, doing quality wolf hunting, or whose death will cause confusion and suspicion

almost in that order

NKA is flawed at best. I agree with SOV your comment is strange. In any case, since we're not in pack chat, we can't know exactly why the wolves picked Sporty over me. They might have had reasons to think she was a PR, I don't know.

 

[Karabiner13]

29 minutes remaining!

 

[Crayola227]

OK explain like I'm 5 why not to break the tie

because you know if someone will do it....

 

[Crayola227]

First tie: RNG 2 people between those tied and tiemaker

OK, so unless you make a tie involving yourself, I would expect this means there are 3 players involved.

So, how exactly do you RNG 2 people? I'm too tired to explain what I mean. I feel like there's a catch here.

How do they pick which 2 of the 3? Do they pick 2, and then RNG between those TWO which ONE dies? Or do they RNG to pick TWO of the 3 to die?

 

[WildZoo]

OK explain like I'm 5 why not to break the tie

because you know if someone will do it....

I dunno, because it's more fun if you don't?

 

[Crayola227]

SOV is starting to sound very wolfy to me

ziggy has been suspicious to me from the very start, but she doesn't sound quite as wolfy as she did in one of her early games as a wolf

Dina, I'm just not getting wolf vibes. I may not be following things well.

 

[WildZoo]

OK, so unless you make a tie involving yourself, I would expect this means there are 3 players involved.

So, how exactly do you RNG 2 people? I'm too tired to explain what I mean. I feel like there's a catch here.

How do they pick which 2 of the 3? Do they pick 2, and then RNG between those TWO which ONE dies? Or do they RNG to pick TWO of the 3 to die?

I'm pretty sure it's they RNG to pick two of the three to die

 

[WildZoo]

SOV is starting to sound very wolfy to me

ziggy has been suspicious to me from the very start, but she doesn't sound quite as wolfy as she did in one of her early games as a wolf

Dina, I'm just not getting wolf vibes. I may not be following things well.

Zig hasn't wolfed in any prior games

 

[Crayola227]

I dunno, because it's more fun if you don't?

Previous experience tells me last minute voting of any kind, tiebreaking or making or not, is more fun

 

[Crayola227]

Zig hasn't wolfed in any prior games

I could've sworn she had. Sigh. For being obsessed with meta I sure af need a damn chart.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

OK, so unless you make a tie involving yourself, I would expect this means there are 3 players involved.

So, how exactly do you RNG 2 people? I'm too tired to explain what I mean. I feel like there's a catch here.

How do they pick which 2 of the 3? Do they pick 2, and then RNG between those TWO which ONE dies? Or do they RNG to pick TWO of the 3 to die?

They will RNG 2 people to die between everyone tied and the tie maker

As it stands now, Dina and SOV are tied and dubs made the tie. Dubs could easily unlynch last second to not be involved in the tie and not be lynching Dina and SOV would likely die

 

[WildZoo]

I'm not gonna lie, I'm feeling less good about the Dina vote but I don't know where else to go and I can't tell if the feels are from my soul or the paranoia in my brain.

 

[WildZoo]

They will RNG 2 people to die between everyone tied and the tie maker

As it stands now, Dina and SOV are tied and dubs made the tie. Dubs could easily unlynch last second to not be involved in the tie and not be lynching Dina and SOV would likely die

Yeah but why would I do that? I welcome death in the form of a beautiful tie

 

[Skimble]

OK explain like I'm 5 why not to break the tie

because you know if someone will do it....

I think you should vote for who you think is most wolfy, but that is my general feeling in games.

 

[Crayola227]

I'm pretty sure it's they RNG to pick two of the three to die

how do we know this??? Pippy just posted that line with a winky face. Do not trust. Do not like.

Also, then it's less bloodshed, as only one person dies. Are we really sure that's what's going to happen if we leave a tie?

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Yeah but why would I do that? I welcome death in the form of a beautiful tie

No you don't

 

[Crayola227]

I think you should vote for who you think is most wolfy, but that is my general feeling in games.

this random death choice thing is totally ridiculous as a game strategy

 

[WildZoo]

how do we know this??? Pippy just posted that line with a winky face. Do not trust. Do not like.

Also, then it's less bloodshed, as only one person dies. Are we really sure that's what's going to happen if we leave a tie?

No. Two people die. Two of the three.

 

[Skimble]

this random death choice thing is totally ridiculous as a game strategy

I’m not sure what you mean by this?

 

[Crayola227]

First tie: RNG 2 people between those tied and tiemaker
Second tie onwards: All tied parties die; 50% chance of tiemaker also dying.

so in the second scenario 2 die for sure, maybe 3

so not really sure it makes sense there's only the possibility of 1 death in the first scenario

it could be, but why are we gambling on sadistic mods and random chance to win ffs? shouldn't we be making choices with intention? Pretest probability is better than chance in a game like this. Usually. Unless you're dumb and village can be dumb.

 

[WildZoo]

No you don't

I do though.

Why would I agree to it if I wasn't going to follow through? It feels pretty perfect right now. I get to have a chance to die without being lynched lol

 

[Crayola227]

No. Two people die. Two of the three.

So why do we want to kill 2 of 3 people tonight, when both could be villagers?

I don't follow this

 

[Karabiner13]

15 minutes remaining!

 

[Dinashadow]

Wolves, if they do vote a fellow wolf, often do it early if they think it won't have traction, or they're convinced that wolf is a lost cause already and may as well be so early on that it doesn't look like a bus, rather than be in the prime bussing location as the last 3 votes that act as a nail in the coffin.

I don't know what as going on with Coffee at the time.

Wolves are just as likely as anyone to vote early for all kinds of reasons, and especially on a fellow wolf.

Not saying this all makes you wolfy, but reasons why your Coffee vote doesn't make you bulletproof to suspicion. Not to answer for SOV. Just stating my opinions on voting patterns and behaviours in general.

Well SOV responded that it was the only vote that makes me village so idk what to think