I'm not sure that I can precisely answer your question. However, I will say that Nova fills up quickly, so get your primary in ASAP, return the secondary ASAP, and have all LORs ready to go ASAP. If you meet what they're looking for, then applying early gives you the best chance at acceptance. I can't stress that enough. Many quality applicants are not successful, for whatever reason, but one thing that sucks is applying late with great stats and either being overlooked or screwed (you might get a late interview, but this almost ensures an alternate list letter the later it gets).