The ultimate COVID thread

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That guy is a knucklehead, there's no way you'll ever get 9 people in the same room, much less ventiliated on one wimpy little anesthesia machine vent.

There's a better explanation of it here


Dead space per patient doesn't change - the space distal to the Y on each patient is unchanged. You split with some T pieces, put it on pressure control, and provided both patients have comparable lung compliance (not a trivial assumption), you get comparable tidal volumes to each patient. Move the sampling line from patient to patient to check CO2 levels intermittently, maybe tolerate some hypercapnia here and there, suppress any spontaneous breaths with opioids or vecuronium, it could work.
I don't like it, but it's possible with PCV I guess. Nine cents tho, that is madness

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You are simply misinformed about the realities of manufacturing in the present day. Labor costs are now almost irrelevant to the production of things like pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and advanced medical products. I'm not going to get into the weeds here on a topic that requires thousands of words to address, but I'll just say it's utterly ridiculous that this country spends tens of billions of dollars on pharmaceutical research only to then depend on foreign nations for the damn physical pills that this research made possible. This is a situation that must and will change as a result of the current crisis. The fact that China is taking advantage of the strong hand offshoring has given it and threatening to kill hundreds of thousands of our citizens by witholding medical supplies makes me very certain of this.

Well that article about tariffs wasn't about pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and advanced medical products, was it? It was about facemasks and gowns which are essentially just a slightly more advanced version of cheap textiles that are better made overseas.

I also don't want to derail too much here, but if labor costs are irrelevant to the production of the actually more advanced things, that means automation is taking over and our workers will still be up sht's creek....
 
Is this a hold and buy strategy or just buy and take profit?
I don't understand those stocks, the chart shows Everytime they go up they subsequently crash into oblivion. So you'd be crazy to hold on to those things. Maybe not a terrible idea to wait for a further 50-100% gain and get out?

I'm personally not doing that because every day there are new news about 1 trillion of stimulus here, 1 trillion there, how noone will be allowed to loose a penny in this crisis, especially big business. All of a sudden the stock market could reverse in nominal terms in the next few months and wipe those things out.
 
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Still too early to tell but there is this.

View attachment 299433


And look at Netherlands. The response matters.

i dont know what SF is doing. but in NYC, i dont know how they are policing it. yes people outside is way down, which is good, but at the same time, you can still find groups of people in the park, etc. it seems like its being taken as voluntary quarantine. also alcohol stores are counting as ESSENTIAL services. whut
 
i dont know what SF is doing. but in NYC, i dont know how they are policing it. yes people outside is way down, which is good, but at the same time, you can still find groups of people in the park, etc. it seems like its being taken as voluntary quarantine. also alcohol stores are counting as ESSENTIAL services. whut
What the hell else is there to do at home during a quarantine besides eat, drink and do the nasty? You gotta have alcohol during these trying times.
 
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also alcohol stores are counting as ESSENTIAL services. whut

You try being stuck in your house with your spouse and kids for an extended period of time and then try telling me alcohol is not essential.
 
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The USA has the potential to be hit as hard as Italy if not harder. We are seeing a massive increase in cases and Orangetop didnt the believe the virus was a problem as of 10 days ago.
I couldn't disagree more strongly with you in that I believe the orange references are to his skin tone as opposed to his hair. We will have to agree to disagree.
 
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For the next person that says "look at China, it won't be so bad in the US". These are the kind of measures China took:

1) You can't dine-in without registering your name, phone number and temperature.
2) Restaurants do hourly checks on all their employees
3) You cant sit face to face with somebody to eat
4) Taxis have plastic sheets separating passengers from drivers
5) You can't ride the train without registering your info so they can track you if you ever spike a temperature
6) They wouldn't let the reporter enter a tourist location because they didn't have proof he'd never left the province

Yet people still think our economy will reign supreme after this is all over. They took epidemiological tracing to the next century and we can't even shut down a beach.
 
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For the next person that says "look at China, it won't be so bad in the US". These are the kind of measures China took:

1) You can't dine-in without registering your name, phone number and temperature.
2) Restaurants do hourly checks on all their employees
3) You cant sit face to face with somebody to eat
4) Taxis have plastic sheets separating passengers from drivers
5) You can't ride the train without registering your info so they can track you if you ever spike a temperature
6) They wouldn't let the reporter enter a tourist location because they didn't have proof he'd never left the province

Yet people still think our economy will reign supreme after this is all over. They took epidemiological tracing to the next century and we can't even shut down a beach.

I think our country is paying for the lack of (scientific) education. Just the sheer number of doctors that don't understand basic stuff, such as exponential functions, is mind-boggling. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

Everything else is a consequence of (scientific) illiteracy, including the lack of critical thinking. Hence people can be easily manipulated by unscrupulous politicians, hence the quality of the people running the country, hence everything else flowing from there. We simply don't know what the word "technocrat" means, because we are more interested in the Kardashians than our Nobel prize winners. Hence we are not led based on expert advice, but suggestions from brown-nosing sycophants.

The empire is falling because the quality of its citizens is dropping. Who the heck bothers to read the Harvard Classics at least, anymore, even among "college" graduates? Or at least the Roman philosophers? Or at least Feynman's famous friggin' lecture books, to understand how the friggin' world works? Or just a book, any book? And so on. It's just eating, drinking, sex, and entertainment; bread and circuses, and we elect our leaders accordingly. We are "educated" by the good-looking or angry scientific illiterates on TV and social media. The blind leading the blind.

That's where the Chinese (and other Asians) are light years ahead of the decadent West. That's why they dominate the STEM fields in American universities. And that's one reason why quarantine works in Asia, even in more democratic countries than China. They UNDERSTAND what it is about. And they trust their experts, because they know enough science to know when they are (not) being lied to. The US and Europe are going to hell (not just Covid-wise), while Asia is rising.

Which are the countries/communities which (will) have the biggest problems? The least scientifically-educated ones, including the retrograde. It's the 21st century, for God's sake; even the Pope is a fan of science and evolution. (By the way, one cannot understand viruses if one doesn't understand evolution.) That's what we're paying for today, our ignorance, our arrogance. There is no American exceptionalism anymore; that belonged to much better generations, which are passing away (including with Covid-19).

We cannot even count on the dum-dums being good lambs and listening to the more educated among us (like those successful Asian nations do), at least in the eleventh hour. The solution is not autocracy, but possibly epistocracy - government by the knowledgeable.
 
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Do you think our preparation and response to this was adequate?
"We're the government; we're not that good."- Shooter
"It took FEMA five days to get water to the SuperDome."- Live free or die Hard

Government response will never be great. If anyone out there is a socialist believing in permanent industry takeover by the government then I hate to inform you, you're an idiot.
 
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It is unbelievable to me that my shop is still doing elective cases, and we are not too far from NYC.
I'm very disappointed in how much i hear this. And I'm talking about the anesthesiologists. This is a world pandemic. Get your groups together, grow a pair, and just say NO. Yes it really is that easy. You think they want to be on 60 Minutes and sued for a Gillion dollars for firing anesthesiologists because they followed recommendations of no elective cases. At some point you are enablers.
 
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i dont know what SF is doing. but in NYC, i dont know how they are policing it. yes people outside is way down, which is good, but at the same time, you can still find groups of people in the park, etc. it seems like its being taken as voluntary quarantine. also alcohol stores are counting as ESSENTIAL services. whut

San Francisco and most of the bay area was/is under a Shelter in place order for the last few days and the governor followed that up with a general shelter in place order for the state, if I recall. They pulled the trigger on this earlier which I think is helping.

It doesn't hurt that the population in general is much more spread out compared to new York city. If there was ever an argument against increased population density, this is it.

Anecdotally, people seem to be following the orders, although I am in a suburb.
 
Futures already hit the limit down within 15 minutes of opening. Going to be another bloodbath tomorrow.
In keeping with requests to focus more on the markets and economy:
re the markets, nowhere near bottom.
re the economy, nowhere near bottom.
 
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shut down what? A market exists so people can buy and sell as they see fit. It only benefits investors for a market to remain open. You think people needing cash would like it if their mutual fund shares could not be redeemed?
Not only that, it's not like you can alter the endpoint by eliminating the falling knife segment. If it were only that easy.
 
This is much worse than 2008.
As in Way the Duck Worse.
We outta those magic bullets that kick the can a little further down the road. Only bullet left is massive inflation. And that's a bullet to the head.
 
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i dont know what SF is doing. but in NYC, i dont know how they are policing it. yes people outside is way down, which is good, but at the same time, you can still find groups of people in the park, etc. it seems like its being taken as voluntary quarantine. also alcohol stores are counting as ESSENTIAL services. whut

There actually is a legitimate reason to keep liquor stores open. If an alcoholic misses a drink, they go through withdrawal. The last thing we need right now is a bunch of alcoholics seizing all over the place.
 
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markets are probably within 10-20% of the bottom
The economy will contract 30% just in the 2nd quarter. And we're not done yet. Some of the worst-case scenarios predict up to 50,000 deaths/day by June (15-20 per 100,000 inhabitants), just in the US, absent effective isolation measures.
 
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I think, the bottom won't be till

1. the rate at which people die declines
2. financial statements come out for the period preceding that.

till then - I'm investing in the food business.
 
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We’ve been down this road. There will be arrests of physicians, lawsuits, careers and reputations ruined. To suggest that we just go into “military mode” doesn’t take into account how truly difficult that is and what the consequences of that will be.
I never said it wouldn’t be difficult or it would be easy. I said it would be what was necessary when the time comes. I wouldn’t care about arrests and reputation at that point honestly and neither would you.
Deal with whatever consequences later. You are the one who has to live with yourself and know that you did your best in a moment where tough decisions have been made.
And you may have regrets but doctors in other countries are facing right now and doctors in resource poor countries face this decision fairly often.

In a time of crisis, in operation military mode, do what you gotta do.

You got a better idea?
 
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I am now much more encouraged that S and p of 2100-2150 will hold. The bottom is getting very close. PGG, you really should move your asset allocation to 90/10.

  • The Federal Reserve announced a bevy of new programs Monday to help with market functioning.
  • Among the moves is an open-ended commitment to keep buying assets under its quantitative easing measures.
  • There are multiple other programs, including one for Main Street business lending and others aimed at keeping credit flowing.
  • Markets reversed all their overnight losses and indicated a sharply positive open
 
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The economy will contract 30% just in the 2nd quarter. And we're not done yet. Some of the worst-case scenarios predict up to 50,000 deaths/day by June (15-20 per 100,000 inhabitants), just in the US, absent effective isolation measures.

and that is already priced into the massive drop we have seen. The market isn't down 35% because of 400 deaths total. It's down because nobody is working and people are afraid they will never go back to work and everybody will die.

There is only so far it can go down. It's not like the market goes to zero. You can't buy the entire company of Apple for $10.
 
I am now much more encouraged that S and p of 2100-2150 will hold. The bottom is getting very close. PGG, you really should move your asset allocation to 90/10.

  • The Federal Reserve announced a bevy of new programs Monday to help with market functioning.
  • Among the moves is an open-ended commitment to keep buying assets under its quantitative easing measures.
  • There are multiple other programs, including one for Main Street business lending and others aimed at keeping credit flowing.
  • Markets reversed all their overnight losses and indicated a sharply positive open
As I said before: wait till the bottom starts falling out in NYC, where a lot of the market makers are based, in a week or two, and you'll wish it were 2100. We ain't seen nothing yet.
 
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David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said the difference between a fast or a prolonged recovery in the stock market will come down to three factors: How quickly the virus is contained, whether businesses will have ” access to enough capital and liquidity to last the 90 to 180 days,” and whether fiscal stimulus can stabilize growth forecasts.

“If short-term shutdowns lead to business defaults, closures, and permanent layoffs, the damage to corporate earnings growth could persist well after the virus is contained,” Kostin said in a not
 
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Oh look, Forbes is predicting a worst case scenario of exactly 1350 for the S&P 500 just like I predicted many days ago...
 
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You think it is just the coronavirus that kills people? This total economic shutdown will kill people.
Only Faux News could imagine that flattening the curve and keeping people isolated are not interrelated. I mean it takes a good level of ignorance.

This is not a country where people wear masks at the smallest sign of a cold. We are obsessed about not getting a cold (all those stupid "hygienic" wipes we use for children), but we are too selfish to care about giving it to others.

One could theoretically play the classical epidemiologic game of testing and containment while life goes on, like some Asian nations (e.g. Taiwan, if memory serves me right), but we are waaay too late to that game. And we are not fit culturally for that model (misunderstood liberties, God-given rights to be dumb etc.).
 
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I am now much more encouraged that S and p of 2100-2150 will hold. The bottom is getting very close. PGG, you really should move your asset allocation to 90/10.

  • The Federal Reserve announced a bevy of new programs Monday to help with market functioning.
  • Among the moves is an open-ended commitment to keep buying assets under its quantitative easing measures.
  • There are multiple other programs, including one for Main Street business lending and others aimed at keeping credit flowing.
  • Markets reversed all their overnight losses and indicated a sharply positive open
Many of the optimistic estimates are based on one to two quarters of coronavirus disruption. I predict 18 months of waxing and waning waves of illness and closures, with the bulk of it lasting approximately 8-10 months in the United States. Earnings are going to take a hit that lasts years, and we will enter a recession that is slightly worse than 2008.
 
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Snapchat-1927464193.jpg
 
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Where will the $10-12 Trillion dollars come from to pay for all this ? I come from a 3rd world country but am now a US citizen. My country had to borrow $2-3 Billion from the World Bank / IMF to be able to pay for imports. And as a condition for these loans my country has to exercise fiscal discretion and the government cant run a large budget deficit. Will the USA ever have to exercise fiscal discretion ?
 
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Where will the $10-12 Trillion dollars come from to pay for all this ? I come from a 3rd world country but am now a US citizen. My country had to borrow $2-3 Billion from the World Bank / IMF to be able to pay for imports. And as a condition for these loans my country has to exercise fiscal discretion and the government cant run a large budget deficit. Will the USA ever have to exercise fiscal discretion ?
We risk a period of significant inflation to get rid of the debt through dilution of the currency
 
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A lot of my home country's budget is taken up with debt repayment and we unfortunately have to spend a lot of money our defense as well. As a result we don't have money to pay for health and education. Does the US have infinite reserves so the government can spend as much as it wants to stimulate the economy ?
 
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Can the US just keep on printing greenbacks and paying everyone. Will at some point the rest of the world stop accepting greenbacks as payment and want real solid assets ?
 
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Can the US just keep on printing greenbacks and paying everyone. Will at some point the rest of the world stop accepting greenbacks as payment and want real solid assets ?
Oh, they have been buying our solid assets (think real estate), thank you very much. The question is what happens when we run out of those (or when we become less attractive as a country, given our failing democracy). Nobody wants to own an apartment in Venezuela.

Also watch American Factory, for a preview of what's coming when they buy us up. We could become THEIR cheap manufacturing colony in the future, like they have been to us in the last decades. That's what a weak dollar would do.
 
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So is it possible that US economy will be completely crippled and it then will come under China and Russia's control. My home country has become completely indebted to China as have many other 3rd world companies.
 
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Where will the $10-12 Trillion dollars come from to pay for all this ? I come from a 3rd world country but am now a US citizen. My country had to borrow $2-3 Billion from the World Bank / IMF to be able to pay for imports. And as a condition for these loans my country has to exercise fiscal discretion and the government cant run a large budget deficit. Will the USA ever have to exercise fiscal discretion ?

Hopefully not. At least during my lifetime.


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PGG, you really should move your asset allocation to 90/10.

I don't know, it's tempting. I'm many years away from needing the money. I'm just reluctant to change the plan during a crisis. Also, while I have the ability to take on additional risk ... high income, government salary (though I expect after I get back to the US my moonlighting income will be hit hard for the next year+), federal pension, no debt, no airplanes boats or ex-wives ... I don't really have a need to.

All my new money is 100% equity at this point anyway, for the rebalancing effect. I manually rebalanced once already. I'm probably splitting hairs between doing nothing and going 90/10. I think I'll just do nothing for a while.
 
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Only Faux News could imagine that flattening the curve and keeping people isolated are not interrelated. I mean it takes a good level of ignorance.
QED:
Trump signals growing weariness with ‘social distancing’ and other steps advocated by health officials
“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” Trump said in a late-night tweet Sunday written in capital letters. “AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”

This will turn into a Custer-level massacre, if he sends people back to work, especially without N95s (which most of them have not been tested for and don't know how to apply).
 
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Can the US just keep on printing greenbacks and paying everyone. Will at some point the rest of the world stop accepting greenbacks as payment and want real solid assets ?
Least ugly option in the room, now and for the foreseeable future. What's going to replace the dollar? The Euro? The Yuan? Bitcoin? Gold doubloons?

There'll be enough road to kick the can down, until there isn't. And just like COVID-19, when that event happens, the exact moment and circumstances and what we should've done and when we should've done it will be totally obvious in hindsight too. :)


So is it possible that US economy will be completely crippled and it then will come under China and Russia's control. My home country has become completely indebted to China as have many other 3rd world companies.

Russia is a kleptocratic petro-state with an economy the size of Italy. They're a has-been superpower, that has been steadily moved in the wrong direction, every minute of the last 30 years since the USSR collapsed. They're a nuclear power with a UN veto, and have plenty of capability as a spoiler and sower of chaos (e.g. look at Syria, Libya, US election meddling) but they aren't close to being poised to take over the world.

China was ****ed before all this started. They aren't magically less screwed now that COVID-19 erupted out of one of their cities.
  • Provincial debt is bonkers
  • Looming demographic catastrophe from one child policy
  • Communist totalitarian government ... don't underestimate how much of a drag this is
  • Culture of conformity (great for quarantines but not much else)
  • A billion people living in mud hut poverty
  • Their cheap labor is being undercut by southeast Asian countries
  • Nationwide environmental catastrophes are just picking up steam, lots of Superfund sites but no actual Superfund
  • Inability to project military power more than about 80 yards off their coast
  • Best Korea doing the things Best Korea does
But, there are 1.4 billion of them, so there's that.


I wouldn't bet against the USA.
 
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So is it possible that US economy will be completely crippled and it then will come under China and Russia's control. My home country has become completely indebted to China as have many other 3rd world companies.
That is kind of China's goal, to perfect the sort of economic imperialism the West used to exploit the rest of the world so that they become the new sole global superpower
 
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Is the federal treasury reserve bill a rough idea of how the Federal Reserve Bank is doing ? If the interest rate starts going up thats a sign no other counter wants our greenback anymore and thus the reserve bank is raising the yield rate.
 
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