The ultimate COVID thread

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No. Re-open in 2-3 weeks for a bit. Let businesses go back to work and let the economy function. If the virus spikes up again we can go on lock-down once more.

Unlike some other “leaders,” Cuomo has not so quietly emerged as a voice of reason and a pretty decent leader during this crisis. He seems to have a pretty decent handle on what needs to be done. He said just what you are suggesting while NY slowly drowns in COVID.

New York now accounts for 6 percent of global cases, and Mr. Cuomo’s order followed a string of increasingly urgent measures to suppress the spread of disease. Still, on Monday, the governor also began to speak about taking steps to pivot to a more functional economy.

“I take total responsibility for shutting off the economy in terms of essential workers,” he said. “But we also have to start to plan the pivot back to economic functionality. You can’t stop the economy forever.”


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Trump can't allow the economy to remain closed for a long period of time. His re-election depends on 2 things: Coronavirus containment and economic prosperity. I have no idea how long this country can remain closed for business and still bounce back enough for "prosperity" so Trump wins the election. I suspect that any shut-down longer than 4 weeks will do a great deal of economic harm exceeding the harm from Covid 19.

You do realize that the economy coming to a halt has nothing to do with any order or power from Trump, right? Individual state governors are driving this right now.
 
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This will come as a shock to a lot of people, but we never recovered from 08. In fact, our problems have only gotten worse. Prior to 08 the largest deficit was 413b in 04. It's never been that low since. We've been adding to the debt by an average of over a Trillion dollars a year since. Interest rate has basically remained at zero since 08, except for a very low few year blip.

We call a Trillion of spending (through more debt) "stimulus." Well, the economy is then on constant 24/7 "stimulus" to keep a pulse. Everyone is now getting anxious, "Congress needs to do something!" How much deeper would you like them to dig the hole? How much more imaginary counterfeit money would you like printed? How desparatly negative would you like the Fed rate?

There comes a point when Madoffing your way out of a mess everytime no longer works. If we aren't already there we are closer by the day. I'll tell you this, we never got out of 08, no more so than your broke ass neighbor that got the repo man to leave him alone by getting another line of credit. The repo man may be leaving him alone for now, but he's an even more broke ass neighbor. That's the USA
 
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Like all Communists before Bernie, the worker is just a pawn for the elitists to control an economy.


In your case, you hope that Trump organization employees don't get any relief from the federal government.


It's not their fault that China didn't stop the coronavirus, why should they suffer for it? Oh, right, they're associated with Trump, thus they're acceptable casualties.

F off, troll. Block!



The biggest myth being sold is that a lockdown is somehow going to cause more human suffering than many more ppl dying from prematurely easing restrictions so the capital class and those who own stocks aren't crying. Trillions of dollars can materialize out of nowhere for quantitative easing, but yet we think we can't support people with plenty of food, basic income, and debt forbearance until the worst of the virus is over. Just shameful.
 
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Pelosi's bill also pushes for "corporate diversity."

America is so broken.
 
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F off, troll. Block!



The biggest myth being sold is that a lockdown is somehow going to cause more human suffering than many more ppl dying from prematurely easing restrictions so the capital class and those who own stocks aren't crying. Trillions of dollars can materialize out of nowhere for quantitative easing, but yet we think we can't support people with plenty of food, basic income, and debt forbearance until the worst of the virus is over. Just shameful.

for anybody that is really rich, the S&P being down should be the greatest thing ever. The lower it goes, the better.
 
I know nothing about economics... but what if Trump came out and basically put a hold on the economy for 2-4 weeks. Executive order saying no one (people, small or large businesses) has to pay rent/mortgage, no car loan payments, no bills or debt of any kind. Basically no one owed anyone anything and the government gave each person/family enough money to pay food and gas to get to and from work. The government/federal bank would foot the bill for any debts people or companies owed to other countries. Would anything like this even work? Seems like where we are headed toward massive unemployment and depression with the current trajectory so why not try something totally outside of the box?? Again I know nothing about real world economics so please just humor me a bit :)

That can't realistically happen.
There will be significant financial chaos.

What about local taxes? You can bet my county is still collecting property taxes. The only change they made because of the coronavirus is no in person payment. So I still made a $5000 e-check payable to them just a few days ago.

Besides, 2-4 weeks is not enough time realistically. We will be dealing with this virus into the summer. We need to spread the number of infections over a long enough period of time so hospitals can handle the volume while a vaccine and possible therapies are being developed.

Ultimately, the economy needs to get back on track. People can only shelter in place for so long to be honest.
 
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for anybody that is really rich, the S&P being down should be the greatest thing ever. The lower it goes, the better.

The big boys who are highly leveraged and didn't see a black swan coming would beg to differ. Same goes for the troves of C-suites and management who have stock-based compensation or stock performance bonuses. PE who usually salivates at these sort of events is even a bit scared cause the credit markets are drier than expected.


Also, if it's so great, why are there 4 rich Senators who used insider trading to dump before the crash?
 
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That can't realistically happen.
There will be significant financial chaos.

What about local taxes? You can bet my county is still collecting property taxes. The only change they made because of the coronavirus is no in person payment. So I still made a $5000 e-check payable to them just a few days ago.

Besides, 2-4 weeks is not enough time realistically. We will be dealing with this virus into the summer. We need to spread the number of infections over a long enough period of time so hospitals can handle the volume while a vaccine and possible therapies are being developed.

Ultimately, the economy needs to get back on track. People can only shelter in place for so long to be honest.
That's the problem when we don't have a disaster plan. Nobody has really thought about what would happen afterwards, step by step. The plane is being built as we fly.
 
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I think our country is paying for the lack of (scientific) education. Just the sheer number of doctors that don't understand basic stuff, such as exponential functions, is mind-boggling. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

Everything else is a consequence of (scientific) illiteracy, including the lack of critical thinking. Hence people can be easily manipulated by unscrupulous politicians, hence the quality of the people running the country, hence everything else flowing from there. We simply don't know what the word "technocrat" means, because we are more interested in the Kardashians than our Nobel prize winners. Hence we are not led based on expert advice, but suggestions from brown-nosing sycophants.

The empire is falling because the quality of its citizens is dropping. Who the heck bothers to read the Harvard Classics at least, anymore, even among "college" graduates? Or at least the Roman philosophers? Or at least Feynman's famous friggin' lecture books, to understand how the friggin' world works? Or just a book, any book? And so on. It's just eating, drinking, sex, and entertainment; bread and circuses, and we elect our leaders accordingly. We are "educated" by the good-looking or angry scientific illiterates on TV and social media. The blind leading the blind.

That's where the Chinese (and other Asians) are light years ahead of the decadent West. That's why they dominate the STEM fields in American universities. And that's one reason why quarantine works in Asia, even in more democratic countries than China. They UNDERSTAND what it is about. And they trust their experts, because they know enough science to know when they are (not) being lied to. The US and Europe are going to hell (not just Covid-wise), while Asia is rising.

Which are the countries/communities which (will) have the biggest problems? The least scientifically-educated ones, including the retrograde. It's the 21st century, for God's sake; even the Pope is a fan of science and evolution. (By the way, one cannot understand viruses if one doesn't understand evolution.) That's what we're paying for today, our ignorance, our arrogance. There is no American exceptionalism anymore; that belonged to much better generations, which are passing away (including with Covid-19).

We cannot even count on the dum-dums being good lambs and listening to the more educated among us (like those successful Asian nations do), at least in the eleventh hour. The solution is not autocracy, but possibly epistocracy - government by the knowledgeable.
One of the best internet posts I've ever read.
 
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Oh, God, more anecdotal n=1 "evidence" about hydroxychloroquine in today's press conference. New Dunning-Kruger world record.

Overall, the speech writer did better than on other days, and so did Trump's ADHD when following it. The market reaction will depend on how much is actually true.
 
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That's the problem when we don't have a disaster plan. Nobody has really thought about what would happen afterwards, step by step. The plane is being built as we fly.
I've thought about it. Hence why I have a few dozen guns and thousands of rounds of ammunition.

Most people who've put a few thoughts towards disasters like this have already stockpiled enough food, water, and self protection to get through this.

The panic you're seeing at Walmart and Costco is the realization of millions of people that the federal government is not their friend. The panic you're seeing in California gunshops is the realization of millions of people that the government of California couldn't give a rats tail for improving the safety of its lawful citizens.

If you're looking to the government to solve your problems, I got a trailer park to sell you.
 
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Oh, God, more anecdotal n=1 "evidence" about hydroxychloroquine in today's press conference. New Dunning-Kruger world record.

Most of the "smart people" in silicon valley are all about it, you should be careful how much you want to insult it when a ton of your so-called intellectual superiors there are behind hydroxychloroquine 110%.
 
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Oh, God, more anecdotal n=1 "evidence" about hydroxychloroquine in today's press conference. New Dunning-Kruger world record.

Overall, the speech writer did better than on other days, and so did Trump's ADHD when following it.


"
State pharmacy boards in Texas, Ohio, Idaho and Nevada in recent days moved to restrict who can be prescribed the malaria treatments chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, and how much of the drugs can be prescribed, according to documents filed by the boards. Texas has also limited prescriptions of the antibiotic azithromycin as well as another anti-malarial drug, mefloquine.

There are currently no approved treatments or preventive vaccines for COVID-19, the highly contagious, sometimes deadly respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus. Researchers are studying existing treatments and working on experimental ones, but most current patients receive only supportive care such as breathing assistance.

The American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP), which maintains a list of drug shortages, said hydroxychloroquine was in shortage as of Thursday. It listed four out of eight manufacturers of the drug as being in shortage.

"


More states need to do this
 

"
State pharmacy boards in Texas, Ohio, Idaho and Nevada in recent days moved to restrict who can be prescribed the malaria treatments chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, and how much of the drugs can be prescribed, according to documents filed by the boards. Texas has also limited prescriptions of the antibiotic azithromycin as well as another anti-malarial drug, mefloquine.

There are currently no approved treatments or preventive vaccines for COVID-19, the highly contagious, sometimes deadly respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus. Researchers are studying existing treatments and working on experimental ones, but most current patients receive only supportive care such as breathing assistance.

The American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP), which maintains a list of drug shortages, said hydroxychloroquine was in shortage as of Thursday. It listed four out of eight manufacturers of the drug as being in shortage.

"


More states need to do this
Too late.
 
Trump can't allow the economy to remain closed for a long period of time. His re-election depends on 2 things: Coronavirus containment and economic prosperity. I have no idea how long this country can remain closed for business and still bounce back enough for "prosperity" so Trump wins the election. I suspect that any shut-down longer than 4 weeks will do a great deal of economic harm exceeding the harm from Covid 19.
The economy would likely be screwed either way, this is just going to do more damage and save a lot of lives. Either way we are entering a major global recession
 
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Put a 10% one time wealth tax on all people with assets > $ 1 Million. Send all America home for 2 months with a $2000 monthly check. No Rent / mortgage for these 2 months and health insurance is free. Resume normal life after 2 months. Coronavirus pandemic over June 1.
 
That can't realistically happen.
There will be significant financial chaos.

What about local taxes? You can bet my county is still collecting property taxes. The only change they made because of the coronavirus is no in person payment. So I still made a $5000 e-check payable to them just a few days ago.

Besides, 2-4 weeks is not enough time realistically. We will be dealing with this virus into the summer. We need to spread the number of infections over a long enough period of time so hospitals can handle the volume while a vaccine and possible therapies are being developed.

Ultimately, the economy needs to get back on track. People can only shelter in place for so long to be honest.
Try next summer. That's how long we will be dealing with it.
 
Have you guys noticed that New York has 3.5x the infections per capita of the rest of the country? Meaning that most of the country is about a week behind.
 


JFC, this dumb@ss is going to do a mitigation strategy, which according to the analysis @FFP posted is the method that would kill the most people by far (as compared to letting it run wild and burn out or doing a total lockdown).
 
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JFC, this dumb@ss is going to do a mitigation strategy, which according to the analysis @FFP posted is the method that would kill the most people by far (as compared to letting it run wild and burn out or doing a total lockdown).
I hope we're proven wrong.

Barr, Birx, and Pence did a good job today. That was reassuring. I swear it's like Pence is president (putting him in charge was one smart thing Trump did); I would vote for this guy, despite his defects. We should stop electing people who have not been governors.

And there's the approval to use anesthesia ventilators for Covid-19 purposes.
 
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I know this was already posted before but it deserves another one. This is really the only way we regain any kind of control on this whole situation.
 
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JFC, this dumb@ss is going to do a mitigation strategy, which according to the analysis @FFP posted is the method that would kill the most people by far (as compared to letting it run wild and burn out or doing a total lockdown).
Get your story straight. Is Trump doing too much or too little? You've claimed both simultaneously.
 
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Looks like White House is using death rate as a measure of success. It stays around 1% and we aren’t hearing stories of widespread healthcare systems overload, I’m betting at the end of”15 days” or whatever arbitrary time frame they set, everything opens back up.

I kind of think it’s a good strategy. Up tick in cases/fatalities down the road then option to tighten the screws again if needed. Don’t further ruin the economy in the process (hopefully)
 
Have you guys noticed that New York has 3.5x the infections per capita of the rest of the country? Meaning that most of the country is about a week behind.
Young *****s who went clubbing up until the quarantine deadline, combined with intra-quarantine partying.

Bunch of *****s.
 
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Looks like White House is using death rate as a measure of success. It stays around 1% and we aren’t hearing stories of widespread healthcare systems overload, I’m betting at the end of”15 days” or whatever arbitrary time frame they set, everything opens back up.

I kind of think it’s a good strategy. Up tick in cases/fatalities down the road then option to tighten the screws again if needed. Don’t further ruin the economy in the process (hopefully)

You only should open back up once you have really, really good control. If you half-ass it you get a prolonged, drag-it-out mitigation strategy that is probably worse than just letting the virus go unchecked

XwA7hup.png
 
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You only should open back up once you have really, really good control. If you half-ass it you get a prolonged, drag-it-out mitigation strategy that is probably worse than just letting the virus go unchecked

XwA7hup.png
Either way, high probability of a second wave of infections. It happened in 1918 with the Spanish Flu. Humans haven't evolved to surpass this.
 
So this is why he wasn't at the WH press conference... Bad doctor Adams, bad. He seemed REALLY pissed.

 
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Have you guys noticed that New York has 3.5x the infections per capita of the rest of the country? Meaning that most of the country is about a week behind.

New York has also really ramped up testing. According to Cuomo they are testing more per day than S.Korea. The number I would like to see is hospital admissions.


Looks like White House is using death rate as a measure of success. It stays around 1% and we aren’t hearing stories of widespread healthcare systems overload, I’m betting at the end of”15 days” or whatever arbitrary time frame they set, everything opens back up.

I kind of think it’s a good strategy. Up tick in cases/fatalities down the road then option to tighten the screws again if needed. Don’t further ruin the economy in the process (hopefully)

Cuomo press conferences have been fairly informative since NY is the frontline in this now. He talks about “the wave” and where it will crash. Essentially he wants to be sure that hospitals can deal with the surge. Once he is assured that hospitals can deal with the influx of patients, the economy will be turned back on. No time frame has been given, but it will be driven by how the healthcare system absorbs this.
 
Have you guys noticed that New York has 3.5x the infections per capita of the rest of the country? Meaning that most of the country is about a week behind.

Maybe the lack of social distancing as a daily part of life in NYC will mitigate that number.
 
Just don’t think really really good control is palatable to the administration and a lot of Americans.

A mitigation strategy guarantees that ICU beds will still be overwhelmed, except with the prolongation it never ends unlike the let it ride and burn out strategy. We'll see how palatable it is to Americans when there's no ICU bed for grandma's STEMI.



Listening to Dr. Birx in the presser....they say they're using the two countries who have flattened the curve (China and SK) as guides for the timeline here in the US, i.e. they think 8-10 weeks. Are these people stupid? Do they not realize that we are not doing anything close to what China and SK did to flatten theirs?
 
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I hope we're proven wrong.

Barr, Birx, and Pence did a good job today. That was reassuring. I swear it's like Pence is president (putting him in charge was one smart thing Trump did); I would vote for this guy, despite his defects. We should stop electing people who have not been governors.

And there's the approval to use anesthesia ventilators for Covid-19 purposes.

It's amazing the standard has fallen so far that a pray-the-gay-away, anti-climate science, let-an-HIV-outbreak-go-unchecked-in-Indiana-because-Jesus former talk radio host seems like the credible one.
 
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I think many are hedging bets and hoping while there is no doubt the New York’s and LAs will be overwhelmed it might not trickle down to community hospitals in BFE becoming overwhelmed.

When the well dries up in a depression and people can barely eat they are going to more likely to let grandma go peacefully.

Not saying I agree or disagree I just feel 100 percent people are going back to work in the near future.
 
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I think many are hedging bets and hoping while there is no doubt the New York’s and LAs will be overwhelmed it might not trickle down to community hospitals in BFE becoming overwhelmed.

When the well dries up in a depression and people can barely eat they are going to more likely to let grandma go peacefully.

Not saying I agree or disagree I just feel 100 percent people are going back to work in the near future.
As we get more data, the right move may be to isolate the elderly, and allow the younger healthy groups (those with mortality rates closer to the flu's) back outside gradually, as long as they don't live with an endangered person (older and/or with comorbidities and/or immunosuppressed).

Another move they may try is to selectively close down regions of disease foci, instead of the entire country. Both of these may bite us, so the data must support them first.
 
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As we get more data, the right move may be to isolate the elderly, and allow the younger healthy groups (those with mortality rates closer to the flu's) back outside gradually, as long as they don't live with an endangered person (older and/or with comorbidities and/or immunosuppressed).

Another move they may try is to selectively close down regions of disease foci, instead of the entire country. Both of these may bite us, so the data must support them first.

Maybe we could move to a Logan’s Run strategy.
 
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Maybe we could move to a Logan’s Run strategy.
I think it's going to be more of an Altered Carbon strategy, where the old and super rich get to live as long as there is even one ventilator left in the country.
 
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As we get more data, the right move may be to isolate the elderly, and allow the younger healthy groups (those with mortality rates closer to the flu's) back outside gradually, as long as they don't live with an endangered person (older and/or with comorbidities and/or immunosuppressed).

Another move they may try is to selectively close down regions of disease foci, instead of the entire country. Both of these may bite us, so the data must support them first.

Your post above was a good one. I think another 1-3 weeks of lock-down is appropriate for the USA but then allow certain locations/cities to look at their ICU situation and reported cases. IF most cities are experiencing controllable caseloads why keep them all locked-down? NYC is THE CITY right now in terms of flattening the curve. The infection rate has gone parabolic and must level out or the ICUs will become completely overwhelmed in just a few days.
 
Also, if it's so great, why are there 4 rich Senators who used insider trading to dump before the crash?

you sell before it happens, which is what they did for insider trading, but the really rich people do not have 100% of their savings in equity. They are broadly diversified (if they are smart) and can afford to dump cash into equities as they bottom.
 
so they killed the proposal that was going to benefit the orange guy and his businesses you mean?

Ya because adding all this unnecessary non-sense like diversity requirements, carbon footprint offsets are really important right now. A pro-business bill helps the American economy. You know who employs people, businesses.
 
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Ya because adding all this unnecessary non-sense like diversity requirements, carbon footprint offsets are really important right now. A pro-business bill helps the American economy. You know who employs people, businesses.
I actually agree with this sentiment, just rattling the cage a bit now. None of the anesthesiologists I know are planning on getting a bailout.
 
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Ya because adding all this unnecessary non-sense like diversity requirements, carbon footprint offsets are really important right now. A pro-business bill helps the American economy. You know who employs people, businesses.
The problem wasn't helping businesses, it was the free reign to hand out money to whomever AND to hide whom that money was going to. Pelosi's proposals are equally as asinine.
 
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