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Thanks lovemed for the friday update. I think they probably do a late afternoon meeting on friday (hereicome), so we should call earlier in the afternoon.

Next wed's call needs to find out more about last years deferrals and how they affect the 110 class size. This is just for informational purposes since I am sure they are following the same deferral process as prior years.

Data Analysis-
Using a waitlist number of 14 for friday we are starting to push our trendline even higher. That is positive news. I have decided not to adjust it yet, I want to see what next wed's number looks like. We are doing an excellent job tracking this movement and our trendline is a solid estimate.

As I said before, not only are we up over last years numbers but we are getting to them about a week earlier than last year. So I think this will be a good year for us waitlisters.

Our current trendline shows that they are pulling about 3 (2.89) people off the waitlist a week. This is slightly lower than 08.

Estimate-
I will stick with my 50-63 numbers, if we are up over our current trendline again next wed then I will push these numbers up again.

If they expand the class size to 115 our best case number pushes up to 69. The combination of us pushing ahead of last year numbers and a possible expanded class size, should keep the waitlisters in the low 70's interested. The only problem with it going so high is they won't know their status until mid-late june.

Also remember for those with no other options, who fall just short of the final mid-late june waitlist number that it is still possible for some mid-late july movement. Last year I think they had a late drop out near the end of july that they had to scramble to fill. They went through 3-4 waitlist numbers trying to fill it. If that turns out to be your situation you might want to recontact the tucson adcom folks and let them know that you are still very interested in a late call off the waitlist, plus keep your options open.

nonlocality
 

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Thanks for the plot nonlocality!! Getting so excited as the waitlist approaches my number 🙂
 
What I'm guessing is that because of the overall drop in the number of medical applicants this year (as posted on the AAMC website), a lot of medical applicants will be getting offers from schools they might not have gotten in previous years.

Consequently, there might just be a lot of waitlist movement for the UofA this year. Again, this is just my assumption. On the other end, there may be a period of stagnated waitlist movement (as there was last year).

Anyhow, I wish the best for all of you on the waitlist. You guys have made it this far, so it's only a matter of waiting just a bit longer for good news!
 
Lovemed if you don't mind me asking, around what number are you low 30s? Low 20s?
 
From lovemed's prior post, she said she is #23.

nonlocality
 
Based on what you said, hereicome you are about 3.5 weeks away from getting your phone call.

nonlocality
 
Why do they WL more than 70 people if they don't really have a chance? I am one of them, so please don't think I am trying to be mean 🙂
 
That's a good point, but they are never sure how deep they need to go into the WL, so it's better for them to make sure they have enough WLers to fill empty spots. I mean, number 60 last year probably thought that there was no chance for them to matriculate, but hey, they got the call!

Being put on the waitlist gives people hope for next year, too. Hey, if I don't get in this year, I know that I was on the waitlist, and that gives me more confidence for next year. The possibility of me getting in is a little higher (in my mind, at least).
 
You are definitely right. I WAS number 60 last year and I DIDN'T think I had a chance in hell but it all worked out. I got in July 7th just FYI so people with high numbers may be waiting til July!
 
mandertwin23 said:
You are definitely right. I WAS number 60 last year and I DIDN'T think I had a chance in hell but it all worked out. I got in July 7th just FYI so people with high numbers may be waiting til July!
Click to expand...

Wow... I hope to be so lucky since I'm in the 60s as well.
 
Wow! Well, there you go! That's great, mandertwin!

mandertwin23 said:
You are definitely right. I WAS number 60 last year and I DIDN'T think I had a chance in hell but it all worked out. I got in July 7th just FYI so people with high numbers may be waiting til July!
Click to expand...
 
Thank you all very much for the responses!
So does anyone have any info or data on how many WL people get accepted when they reapply at UA?
For me, I know my MCAT is my main weakness, as far as I know.
 
mymembernames said:
Thank you all very much for the responses!
So does anyone have any info or data on how many WL people get accepted when they reapply at UA?
For me, I know my MCAT is my main weakness, as far as I know.
Click to expand...

I would imagine it to be easier for them to make a decision since they have far more information to put in your file. Being on the wait list does indicate that they find something interesting about you, so that is a plus. I'm sure it's highly likely that with a few tweaks to your application an acceptance would be a lot easier the second time around.

However if with further interviewing they discover that you aren't the best fit for their school, I'd imagine it possible to be wait listed one year and then rejected the next. You've got the right idea to work on your weaknesses and to avoid getting too discouraged with yourself. The anxiety and insecurity not getting accepted causes can be almost too much to even think about putting yourself through it all again on some days.

I think my major weaknesses were not enough variation in my physician shadowing and not enough academic involvement/research experience. My MCAT could have been better, too. I didn't spend much time on my AMCAS application either... well, I guess I have a few things I could improve on for next year if this one doesn't pan out. 😳 Haha.
 
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I am expecting to see this current waitlist movement of about 3 a week, only last for another 3.5 weeks.

After that I anticipate we will be moving to the second trendline which moves much quicker.

In our best case (upper bound) estimate, that second trendline will be moving about 6 (5.95) waitlist numbers a week.

So things will be going a lot faster. We will be zooming through the 30's, 40's and probably the 50's.


nonlocality
 
thanks for the update nonlocality, I'm in the early fifties so I like the sound of that!!! :meanie:
 
mymembernames said:
Thank you all very much for the responses!
So does anyone have any info or data on how many WL people get accepted when they reapply at UA?
For me, I know my MCAT is my main weakness, as far as I know.
Click to expand...

I was #99 on the waitlist last year and was accepted to both campuses this year. I think it is safe to say that if you are waitlisted, they want you in their program, it's just a matter of numbers, and of course some improvement. I talked to Tara from Phoenix last year after the class was filled to talk about my application. She basically said that I was in a really great place and that to make myself more competetive for the next year I may want to improve my MCAT score (which is what I did along with consistency in clinical/ research participation). So, for those of you on the waitlist, no matter how low you are, keep faith!! It will happen in your future if you have persistence.
 
Oh man I hope you are right nonlocality. I am in the late 30's and still hesitant to make plans to continue living in Tucson but also hesitant to exert alot of effort on researching apartments near UA COM Phx. I am supposed to renew my rental by mid-April and I won't know anything by then. I also am supposed to be out of my place by June 5! I hope my number is called by then! I don't want to intend on going to Tucson and then out of nowhere WL movement stops...Uncertainty and this unpredictable economy sucks lol.

Ok, well I will call tomorrow and get our WL update. Hope its greater than 15! :xf:
 
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Cuddy420 said:
I also am supposed to be out of my place by June 5! I hope my number is called by then! I don't want to intend on going to Tucson and then out of nowhere WL movement stops...Uncertainty and this unpredictable economy sucks lol.

Ok, well I will call tomorrow and get our WL update. Hope its greater than 15! :xf:
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm supposed to be out of my place by June 6th. Luckily (if I can't find a cool summer job) I'm planning on a month trip after my lease ends to allow for some last minute wait list movement. :xf:

Uncertainty really sucks. I just hope the Tucson wait list either stops right around forty or hits my #64. I know it's selfish of me, but I would just die if it stopped at 60, 61, 62, or 63. :cry:

OOOOOR... Phoenix could just accept me. Tomorrow. Hahaha.
 
Cuddy you don't have to call today if you don't want, weds and fridays are frequent enough data points.

Also I estimate that you can expect a phone call from the tucson med school between may 18-22.

But once we get several data points to plot up our second trendline, and several more to validate it (probably by may 13th) then you can have a lot more confidence in your predicted call date.

nonlocality
 
Has anyone contacted the office to schedule a time to review their application for advice on strengthening it for next year's app?

I know they said to contact them between April 1 and June 1, so I sent them an email. The response was, "We are offering individual file feedback and will follow up with you between April 1 and June 1." But that was dated April 5. So basically I need to wait for them to contact me? Just wanted to be sure so that I don't nag them unnecessarily.
 
They are still at 14 as of now. Thanks nonlocality for the expected date for my number!
 
Hey guys, I'm #15 on the WL so I will let you all know when I get the phone call. That way, we don't have to keep bothering admissions to hear that they are still on #14. 🙂
 
Thanks spicyangel, hopefully it will be today or tomorrow for you.

Congrats in advance.

nonlocality
 
Nonlocality, thanks so much for creating these plots and helping us out with your input on the waitlist. I just had a quick question for you. I am currently #49 which is still quite a bit away and I don't want to drive myself crazy by constantly checking these numbers at this time. Any idea on when (or if) I may receive an acceptance? I think I will hold off for now and begin checking more regularly during that time in order to maintain my sanity. Thanks 🙂
 
Unless something very unusual happens (I always have to give myself an out so I don't look too foolish) .........

Given the fact that we do not have any numbers to build our second trendline then, my best guess at these waitlist numbers are (assuming I am wagering your money).

40 and under, its a "slam dunk", a "done deal"
41-50 I think you have about an 85% chance of getting in
51-55 I think you have about a 65% chance of getting in
56-63 I think you have about a 30% chance of getting in
64-66 I think you have about a 5% chance of getting in


As a sanity check, let us assume an average 80% yield off of their waitlist and a yield of 60% for their direct offers. I believe these are representative numbers for prior years. But this year, as has already been suggested, phx seems to be gaining in popularity so that might explain why we are seeing our trendline being up over 08 by 1-2 waitlist offers and yielding equivalent 08 numbers about a week earlier. This means that my guesstimated yield numbers are probably too high and that we will reach deeper into the waitlist pool than 08.

So the sanity check.....

Then 110 * 0.6 is 66 seats filled with direct offers made prior to the waitlist coming out

So 44 seats need to be filled, if we go to 110 on our class size. So 44/0.8 means that 55 waitlist numbers would be called.

If they go to a class size of 115 then 49 seats need to be filled so 49/0.8 so 61 waitlist numbers would be called.

The sanity check says we are in the ballpark.

With that said I believe that by the May 13th waitlist number that we will have enough points (probably 5-6) to build a relatively accurate second trendline. Once that happens I plan on centering my estimate bar at the end of that line with +/- 3 seats to either side as my best guess. That estimate should be relatively accurate and give us about one month's (mid-may versus mid-june) worth of advance notice.

As of right now I would say you and those 50 and below are looking really solid, and that number 50 should expect a phone call about the first week of June.

So if you are at 49 (indy787) I would check back with this thread once a week to see if our first trendline continues to push above the 08 one (good news), and then really pay attention starting in early may.


nonlocality
 
nonlocality said:
Unless something very unusual happens (I always have to give myself an out so I don't look too foolish) .........

Given the fact that we do not have any numbers to build our second trendline then, my best guess at these waitlist numbers are (assuming I am wagering your money).

40 and under, its a "slam dunk", a "done deal"
41-50 I think you have about an 85% chance of getting in
51-55 I think you have about a 65% chance of getting in
56-63 I think you have about a 30% chance of getting in
64-66 I think you have about a 5% chance of getting in


As a sanity check, let us assume an average 80% yield off of their waitlist and a yield of 60% for their direct offers. I believe these are representative numbers for prior years. But this year, as has already been suggested, phx seems to be gaining in popularity so that might explain why we are seeing our trendline being up over 08 by 1-2 waitlist offers and yielding equivalent 08 numbers about a week earlier. This means that my guesstimated yield numbers are probably too high and that we will reach deeper into the waitlist pool than 08.

So the sanity check.....

Then 110 * 0.6 is 66 seats filled with direct offers made prior to the waitlist coming out

So 44 seats need to be filled, if we go to 110 on our class size. So 44/0.8 means that 55 waitlist numbers would be called.

If they go to a class size of 115 then 49 seats need to be filled so 49/0.8 so 61 waitlist numbers would be called.

The sanity check says we are in the ballpark.

With that said I believe that by the May 13th waitlist number that we will have enough points (probably 5-6) to build a relatively accurate second trendline. Once that happens I plan on centering my estimate bar at the end of that line with +/- 3 seats to either side as my best guess. That estimate should be relatively accurate and give us about one month's (mid-may versus mid-june) worth of advance notice.

As of right now I would say you and those 50 and below are looking really solid, and that number 50 should expect a phone call about the first week of June.

So if you are at 49 (indy787) I would check back with this thread once a week to see if our first trendline continues to push above the 08 one (good news), and then really pay attention starting in early may.


nonlocality
Click to expand...

Wow, thanks so much for that response. I will be sure to check throughout the month of May up until the time for a final decision. I do know a few students who are planning on attending other schools but are still holding UA spots and I am sure that many do this right up to the decision deadline. Thanks again nonlocality 🙂
 
sunny1 said:
The response was, "We are offering individual file feedback and will follow up with you between April 1 and June 1." But that was dated April 5. So basically I need to wait for them to contact me? Just wanted to be sure so that I don't nag them unnecessarily.
Click to expand...

Hm that's weird... I would think all you would need to do is call them to schedule an appointment. I'd call just to confirm... don't worry about being a nag. Both Tara and Tanisha are extremely nice. That is unless you're on the wait list, then your window starts in June after those who were rejected get their file feedback*.

*Tara in Phoenix told me this, although I assume the process is the same for Tucson as well.
 
sunny1 said:
64-66 I think you have about a 5% chance of getting in
Click to expand...

me: "What are the chances of a guy like you and a school like me ending up together?"

UA COM: "Not good."

me: "Not good like one in a hundred?"

UA COM: "I'd say more like one in a million."

me: "So you're telling me there's a chance!?"



Hahah. As you all can see, I cope with my non-acceptance to medical school with humor (or at least a desperate attempt at it). Ahhh, it feels a lot better than anxiety does.
 
Hey spicy angel, are you going to choose Tucson over Phx? I see you are already from the Phx area and planning on going to 2nd Look in Phx with such a low waitlist number in Tucson. Thanks for letting us know when they get to 15! Hopefully you get the call tomorrow!
 
So Second look is coming up soon! it's business formal attire, right?
 
baselimam said:
So Second look is coming up soon! it's business formal attire, right?
Click to expand...

Business professional, actually. I think that's even more fancy schmancy. I'd definitely recommended picking up a bow tie.
 
I would imagine a suit will be fine...probably even the suit you wore when you interviewed would do.
 
I asked at the admissions office when I turned in my acceptance letter (I am typing that with a huge smile) and Ann said that it is business casual. I asked about slacks with shirt and tie, they said no tie. Apparently some people even show up in jeans but thats a little lax.

Edit: I am referring to the Tucson campus.

Edit Edit: I just DOUBLE-DOUBLE checked and called-business casual. "We want you to be comfortable."
 
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Thanks for rubbing it in, K. 😛 Now I'm gonna go do some weeping. But thanks for the info. 👍
 
I feel silly having to point this out... but I have a strong hunch that MadEvans was throwing in some humor with the bow-tie comment. Come on #15!
 
lovemed04 said:
I feel silly having to point this out... but I have a strong hunch that MadEvans was throwing in some humor with the bow-tie comment. Come on #15!
Click to expand...

Hahahaha. Yes, I'm glad you get me lovemed. Hahahahaha.
 
I'm a big fan of funny 🙂 Hopefully the admissions committee knows this and will get to your spot! haha we all need to laugh our way through the insanity of medical education
 
I'm expecting faster WL movement after 2nd look on friday!
Tara said that there hasn't been a lot of movement in phx wl
This is stressing me out!
When do u guys think I should just give up on PHX and start looking for a place in tucson and someone who would rent my place here in phx?
 
baselimam said:
I'm expecting faster WL movement after 2nd look on friday!
Tara said that there hasn't been a lot of movement in phx wl
This is stressing me out!
When do u guys think I should just give up on PHX and start looking for a place in tucson and someone who would rent my place here in phx?
Click to expand...

Have you been accepted to Tucson but your first choice is Phoenix?
 
Why give up on phx so soon? It sounds like anxiety/frustration talking.

The waitlist doesn't really start moving till early may and doesn't really slow down again until mid-june.

By mid-june you could start making your decisions and still have about 1.5 months before you have to show up in tucson.

nonlocality
 
MadEvans said:
Hm that's weird... I would think all you would need to do is call them to schedule an appointment. I'd call just to confirm... don't worry about being a nag. Both Tara and Tanisha are extremely nice. That is unless you're on the wait list, then your window starts in June after those who were rejected get their file feedback*.

*Tara in Phoenix told me this, although I assume the process is the same for Tucson as well.
Click to expand...

I am far down the waitlist....but that's practically a rejection too, right?! I would really appreciate their input since June is when we're supposed to be applying again essentially. I know, I need to play it cool though.
 
For those of you who are choosing UA because its a "cheap" medical school just wanted to let you know there is talk of a 6,000 tuition increase for next year, with subsequent increases to come.
 
mandertwin23 said:
For those of you who are choosing UA because its a "cheap" medical school just wanted to let you know there is talk of a 6,000 tuition increase for next year, with subsequent increases to come.
Click to expand...

Mandertwin, I highly doubt that they would raise the tuition by 6K in a single year. That would be a highly unusual and unpopular decison. I could hear 6K over 3 years. But in any case, even if they raised the tuition by 6K U of A would still be a cheap med school. Many many med schools are 40K+. That being said, I still hope that your information turns out to be not true.
 
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