WildZenge Presents: Horizon Zero DaWWn

[Animal Midwife]

If I come back with a village result, you can kill me. If I come back with a wolf result, let me thunderdome.

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[Crayola227]

Christ. Okay, maybe give me a cycle then.

How do we make sure the wolf doesn't kill you?

Do we tell me who to block? Hope they have to kill me to stop their block? Would it?

Do we vote together today to be able to PM about it instead?

Can't believe I'm entertaining this given I blocked you and the wolf kill didn't happen last night.

Guys, is AM wolf and we just don't want to see it?

 

[Animal Midwife]

How do we make sure the wolf doesn't kill you?

Do we tell me who to block? Hope they have to kill me to stop their block? Would it?

Do we vote together today to be able to PM about it instead?

Can't believe I'm entertaining this given I blocked you and the wolf kill didn't happen last night.

Guys, is AM wolf and we just don't want to see it?

If the wolf kills me, the POE has been narrowed for you without needing to waste a yeet. It's a win/win.

 

[Aprilthearab]

How do we make sure the wolf doesn't kill you?

Do we tell me who to block? Hope they have to kill me to stop their block? Would it?

Do we vote together today to be able to PM about it instead?

Can't believe I'm entertaining this given I blocked you and the wolf kill didn't happen last night.

Guys, is AM wolf and we just don't want to see it?

I think it's either AM (blocked and couldn't kill if wolf) or Lawpy (lost his night ability for last night after acting on cubs and couldn't kill if wolf)

I'm a bit stuck on which one I feel stronger about and would probably need to look back at AM's VCA

 

[Animal Midwife]

Regarding the vote idea, I'll let you all vote who I should use it on.

 

[Aprilthearab]

Regarding the vote idea, I'll let you all vote who I should use it on.

I vote Lawpy

 

[Lawpy]

Well it's AM or a possible deepwolf!cubs here. I could see cubs being used as an indirect machine seer for Mels to deactivate PRs and note they're machines

 

[Aprilthearab]

Well it's AM or a possible deepwolf!cubs here. I could see cubs being used as an indirect machine seer for Mels to deactivate PRs and note they're machines

But why would he want to know if they're machines? The only reason it matters that I know of is whether or not Cubs's indirect ability works on someone

But I don't see Cubs and Mel working together, it seems to make more sense that the pack happened upon Cubs's ability and then used it to deactivate PRs. And Cubs was very dedicated to the Mel yeet

 

[Crayola227]

I think it's either AM (blocked and couldn't kill if wolf) or Lawpy (lost his night ability for last night after acting on cubs and couldn't kill if wolf)

I'm a bit stuck on which one I feel stronger about and would probably need to look back at AM's VCA

Frak, wish I had remembered that about Lawpy, I would have blocked him instead last night.

 

[Aprilthearab]

Frak, wish I had remembered that about Lawpy, I would have blocked him instead last night.

Why? He already wasn't able to use his night action

 

[Lawpy]

But why would he want to know if they're machines? The only reason it matters that I know of is whether or not Cubs's indirect ability works on someone

But I don't see Cubs and Mel working together, it seems to make more sense that the pack happened upon Cubs's ability and then used it to deactivate PRs. And Cubs was very dedicated to the Mel yeet

For flavor reasons that might give some game benefits to wolves? Mels was like the master AI villain and could've benefitted from knowing machines based on the story. I've seen these types of flavor seers used before and they can be advantageous for wolves.

That's why i think cubs could be deepwolfing.

 

[Crayola227]

Why? He already wasn't able to use his night action

Because if he was village, than no harm done in preventing him from using his investigative ability, but if he was wolf the wolf kill would have been blocked, which, it might not have had anything to do with him I guess, since I didn't block him last night and there was no wolf kill, but at least we wouldn't have felt confused about what to do today.

 

[Lawpy]

Deepwolves can be just as, if not more, committed to yeeting wolves as villagers

 

[Lawpy]

cubs ability also directly disrupts investigative roles from acting on him

 

[Crayola227]

cubs ability also directly disrupts investigative roles from acting on him

So did TME's, potentially. It wasn't AI.

I agree Cubs' ability is c/w w, but doesn't have to be.

 

[Lawpy]

So did TME's, potentially. It wasn't AI.

I agree Cubs' ability is c/w w, but doesn't have to be.

But what if cubs is a wolf counterpart of Sporty + TME

 

[Crayola227]

One way to balance a game for the wolves when you have tons of investigative abilities is have some villagers not get investigated and potentially look sketch.

 

[cubsrule4e]

Yes which basically supports my point. There's a direct negative risk of targeting cubs and it makes no sense to do so regardless of affiliation. And since you're arguing this is suggestive of wolfiness, i'll say it even makes less sense to do that as a wolf since it unnecessarily handicaps the pack.

This is what I was saying to shorty one morning and thats when Cray came in and said my play felt lost and confused. Weird.

 

[cubsrule4e]

Because if he was village, than no harm done in preventing him from using his investigative ability, but if he was wolf the wolf kill would have been blocked, which, it might not have had anything to do with him I guess, since I didn't block him last night and there was no wolf kill, but at least we wouldn't have felt confused about what to do today.

You blocked AM, I had incapacitated Lawpy. Unless the wolf no-kill was intentional, theres no other explanation.

 

[cubsrule4e]

But what if cubs is a wolf counterpart of Sporty + TME

Now that youre being brought up more, time to throw shade at cubs as a last resort?

 

[cubsrule4e]

Is anyone voting for 12/12 or do we want to keep it at 36/12 right now?

 

[Lawpy]

Now that youre being brought up more, time to throw shade at cubs as a last resort?

Nah, i'm just thinking an alternative to AM

 

[Animal Midwife]

Is anyone voting for 12/12 or do we want to keep it at 36/12 right now?

I'd prefer a 36/12 still so we have time to talk.

 

[Aprilthearab]

Is anyone voting for 12/12 or do we want to keep it at 36/12 right now?

I would like 12/12

 

[Lawpy]

Occam's shaving razor says AM

But i don't know if wolves are playing 5D chess here

 

[Animal Midwife]

Occam's shaving razor says AM

But i don't know if wolves are playing 5D chess here

Hey. Did you see I have a friend finder?

 

[Lawpy]

Hey. Did you see I have a friend finder?

Hmm

 

[Crayola227]

Is anyone voting for 12/12 or do we want to keep it at 36/12 right now?

I voted for 12/12.

 

[supershorty]

Hello, I'm on my lunch break and have some write up things on my mind. They're a little tinfoily though, I wasn't really expecting TME to flip village and I'm still processing that.

Day 4

The Braves took cover behind boulders and bushes as they approached the Eclipse camp. As expected, it was guarded by Shadow Carja soldiers and corrupted machines. Some were familiar - Watchers and Sawtooths, nothing they hadn't seen before, but glowing red with corruption. Among them stood machines that, like the Deathbringer, resembled no fauna. The corrupting signals emanated from them. They would need to be taken out first.

There were too many enemies for the war party to take them on head first. Fortunately, they were familiar with the art of stealth - it was where they thrived. They surrounded the camp and individually took out the human enemies first. Sona noticed a herd of Broadheads nearby that had not been corrupted. She could work with this.

When the dust settled, the glowing core at the center of the camp was left exposed. Aloy had been the chosen one, and alone none could take her place. But with enough of them together, the Nora Braves had the strength to purge the AI from the computer core it had inhabited for so long. They each placed a hand on Aloy's spear, and felt an electric energy pass through them as they stabbed into the core.


Dead is @Melchizedek, who was HADES, an AI bent on the destruction of the world, and a wolf who could attempt to control some players' actions​

Well it's AM or a possible deepwolf!cubs here. I could see cubs being used as an indirect machine seer for Mels to deactivate PRs and note they're machines

But why would he want to know if they're machines? The only reason it matters that I know of is whether or not Cubs's indirect ability works on someone

But I don't see Cubs and Mel working together, it seems to make more sense that the pack happened upon Cubs's ability and then used it to deactivate PRs. And Cubs was very dedicated to the Mel yeet

The write up says that Mel could attempt to control SOME players' actions. After reading through the write up and all these mentions of corrupted machines, I'm wondering if it means he could specifically redirect machines. It's just giving me flashbacks to Bioshock, where there were hackers who could control different machines for different tasks. The machines in that game weren't players so it's not a super strong comparison, but it's making me think of it.

I'll go through the thread more later to look for this when I'm off work, but does anyone remember off the top of their head if any non-machine players have had the wolfy-seeming redirect? Edit: wait, that doesn't make sense because if we haven't acted on cubs, we don't know if we're machines or not, and the only people who acted on cubs were Cray and Lawpy. I need to see who has had the wolfy redirect. I'll search the thread later.

I agree with April though that I don't think it implicates cubs, necessarily.

 

[supershorty]

Is anyone voting for 12/12 or do we want to keep it at 36/12 right now?

I would prefer 12/12, I feel like 36/12 starts to really drag on when we have only a small handful of players. Bioshock got kind of painful by the end.

 

[cubsrule4e]

Ok im gonna go 12/12 but I do have volleyball tonight.

Vote LAwpy

for now. AM as we discussed seems implicated through mechanics, but also dont have any ability reveal for her, and in PMs I have others vouching for her. Cray is the other person not totally clear for me.

 

[Lawpy]

Ok im gonna go 12/12 but I do have volleyball tonight.

Vote LAwpy

for now. AM as we discussed seems implicated through mechanics, but also dont have any ability reveal for her, and in PMs I have others vouching for her. Cray is the other person not totally clear for me.

Then why are you voting me

 

[Lawpy]

I'm trying to understand the reasons behind this anti-Lawpy push that just aren't making sense.

 

[Aprilthearab]

I'm trying to understand the reasons behind this anti-Lawpy push that just aren't making sense.

Everyone else is too village

 

[Lawpy]

Everyone else is too village

Based on what?

 

[Aprilthearab]

Based on what?

Cubs was dedicated to the Mel yeet for multiple days in a row and sounds exactly like he did in the last game when he was village. His ability isn't AI on its own but like I said earlier I would be surprised if that ability would be intentionally integrated into a wolf pack with a redirector.

I explained yesterday why Cray is very village with pushes, VCA, tone, and not taking advantage of very easy potential misyeets when they were right in front of her.

Shorty was a village read from the beginning off of tone and her VCA is too strong unless we seriously wanted to consider double bussing a viable option, and that's not a road I want to go down nor would think is productive.

I don't have a bunch of reasons for village AM but shorty vouched for her hard in PMs last night and I trust shorty. Honestly I'm also curious to see what she does with her friend finder and I want to give her a night to do something with it.

Which leaves you, and I don't have any village points to give you for keeping Mel conveniently tucked at the end of your POE so you wouldn't realistically have to push him any time soon. You've got your claim which I'm not sure I believe unless we still think there are two redirectors out there. I just don't feel as solid on you compared to the others that have stronger reasons to be read village.

 

[Lawpy]

Cubs was dedicated to the Mel yeet for multiple days in a row and sounds exactly like he did in the last game when he was village. His ability isn't AI on its own but like I said earlier I would be surprised if that ability would be intentionally integrated into a wolf pack with a redirector.

I explained yesterday why Cray is very village with pushes, VCA, tone, and not taking advantage of very easy potential misyeets when they were right in front of her.

Shorty was a village read from the beginning off of tone and her VCA is too strong unless we seriously wanted to consider double bussing a viable option, and that's not a road I want to go down nor would think is productive.

I don't have a bunch of reasons for village AM but shorty vouched for her hard in PMs last night and I trust shorty. Honestly I'm also curious to see what she does with her friend finder and I want to give her a night to do something with it.

Which leaves you, and I don't have any village points to give you for keeping Mel conveniently tucked at the end of your POE so you wouldn't realistically have to push him any time soon. You've got your claim which I'm not sure I believe unless we still think there are two redirectors out there. I just don't feel as solid on you compared to the others that have stronger reasons to be read village.

Dedicated to the Mels yeet means nothing if deepwolfing is in play. Again deepwolves have every incentive to be dedicated to yeeting wolves just like villagers. Sounding the same as village!cubs doesn't mean much because wolves by their nature like to sound village. Even Mels was sounding village to some people here.

I don't disagree with the shorty or Cray reads but it's not wise to ignore bussing being an option when at least 2 people who were widely viewed as sketchy/wolfy based on feels/tone/VCA ended up village. When something like this happens, especially near late game, it's necessary to reevaluate everyone, take into account of bussing and make an informed decision and not double down on another sketchy read, flip a villager, get even more disheartened when the remaining players look even more village, and then let village fatigue set in for the last wolf to win. We already have some fatigue setting in when people want to push for 12/12 rather than 36/12

Uh shorty wasn't always right though. But what do you make of Cray blocking AM in a no wolf kill night? Are you thinking the no wolf kill was intentional?

You're misunderstanding that POE. I've repeatedly insisted on Mels/TME pack while briefly thinking about you/cubs until settling on TME. TME was widely viewed as sketchy, let's not kid ourselves here by retroactively condemning me for voting her as favoring Mels. Mels was already racking up enough votes and was likely doomed especially with how the Sporty yeet the previous day went. This even more suggests to me that bussing was likely in play especially if it's shown the no wolf kill was intentional

 

[Crayola227]

##### vote AM #####

I think this is the safer vote as far as making the most sense with mechanics as we understand them, but also her VCA, and her posts. She's been helpful, but AM in my mind often seems to think certain strategic conclusions are effectively "obvious" and hardly need explained, so I can see a wolfy her still pointing out strategy things like "oh the vig shouldn't claim until end game" or "the investigative roles now are effectively affiliation seering," and if she thinks she's stating the obvious or what we would figure out ourselves, or won't help as much as we would hope, well, wolves have no issue appearing "helpful" to village if they think end of the day it won't meaningfully affect their agenda.

The issue with Lawpy, and even AM conceded it would be OP, is would acting on Cubs really take away wolf factional kill or just the ability. I lean to the latter.

Also, I will add since it may help us assess the point I just made, is that when I acted on Cubs and was deactivated for the night, it stopped me from using my block ability. It didn't stop me from using an item I had received. I specifically asked the mods if the deactivation only stopped me from using my PR, or if it would also stop me from using the item. They said it only affected my PR.

My POE at this point is AM and Lawpy based on what we know so far.

 

[Crayola227]

I haven't ran the numbers to see what happens if we try to humor AM.

Say we yeet Lawpy, he flips village. AM uses the "friend finder" to "affiliation seer" and if she's wolf, she's going to point the finger at someone. At that point, the only way to test it is to yeet whoever she points the finger at. Then say they flip village and we find out AM was lying. Then we yeet her. I haven't ran the numbers to see if we can afford to play that scenario out or if she would win. And if she points the finger at someone, and for whatever reason we decide not to believe her and yeet her, then what's the point?

 

[Animal Midwife]

##### vote AM #####

I think this is the safer vote as far as making the most sense with mechanics as we understand them, but also her VCA, and her posts. She's been helpful, but AM in my mind often seems to think certain strategic conclusions are effectively "obvious" and hardly need explained, so I can see a wolfy her still pointing out strategy things like "oh the vig shouldn't claim until end game" or "the investigative roles now are effectively affiliation seering," and if she thinks she's stating the obvious or what we would figure out ourselves, or won't help as much as we would hope, well, wolves have no issue appearing "helpful" to village if they think end of the day it won't meaningfully affect their agenda.

The issue with Lawpy, and even AM conceded it would be OP, is would acting on Cubs really take away wolf factional kill or just the ability. I lean to the latter.

Also, I will add since it may help us assess the point I just made, is that when I acted on Cubs and was deactivated for the night, it stopped me from using my block ability. It didn't stop me from using an item I had received. I specifically asked the mods if the deactivation only stopped me from using my PR, or if it would also stop me from using the item. They said it only affected my PR.

My POE at this point is AM and Lawpy based on what we know so far.

What do think think about the fact that my item would mechanically lock the game? Don't you want me to get a chance to use it?

 

[Lawpy]

I haven't ran the numbers to see what happens if we try to humor AM.

Say we yeet Lawpy, he flips village. AM uses the "friend finder" to "affiliation seer" and if she's wolf, she's going to point the finger at someone. At that point, the only way to test it is to yeet whoever she points the finger at. Then say they flip village and we find out AM was lying. Then we yeet her. I haven't ran the numbers to see if we can afford to play that scenario out or if she would win. And if she points the finger at someone, and for whatever reason we decide not to believe her and yeet her, then what's the point?

I think a village misyeet will sent the next day to mylo

 

[Animal Midwife]

I haven't ran the numbers to see what happens if we try to humor AM.

Say we yeet Lawpy, he flips village. AM uses the "friend finder" to "affiliation seer" and if she's wolf, she's going to point the finger at someone. At that point, the only way to test it is to yeet whoever she points the finger at. Then say they flip village and we find out AM was lying. Then we yeet her. I haven't ran the numbers to see if we can afford to play that scenario out or if she would win. And if she points the finger at someone, and for whatever reason we decide not to believe her and yeet her, then what's the point?

We are at f6, you can afford to not yeet me this cycle.

If I say someone is village, you will know I am telling the truth and, after I am misyeeted, you will leave that person alone. You may still lose the game by yeeting me, but I will have done everything I could to prevent a loss.

If I say someone is wolf, and you can still opt to yeet me for some godforsaken reason, a wolf win may be mechanically impossible

 

[Crayola227]

What do think think about the fact that my item would mechanically lock the game? Don't you want me to get a chance to use it?

My post above explains my issue with it. I'm trying to run the numbers right now to see if that's really viable.

Today
Lawpy
AM
Cubs
April
Shorty
myself

5 villagers, 1 wolf. Yeet a villager, 4 villagers, 1 wolf. Then say wolf has 1 NK, start tomorrow with 3 villagers, 1 wolf. Say AM is wolf, she has us yeet a villager based on her data. That leaves 2 villagers, 1 wolf, and then the NK leads to parity and the game is lost.

And this assumes the last wolf has no mechanism that can lead to a double kill. Could we get lucky with investigative roles working out for us or a failed kill? Sure, but I never assume village is going to be lucky when it comes to NKs.

Also, if we yeet Lawpy and the game doesn't end, what is going to help us decide tomorrow if AM is telling the truth with the item or not? Has anyone had a night result consistent with an item being used on them? The item I used only worked on myself, it wasn't an item I could use on someone else.

If instead we just yeet AM or Lawpy, in whatever order, we will win as long as the wolf is between one of them. And we can hope that one of the investigative roles that does die tonight can give us more data. I fear we're not using occam's razor in assuming AM is telling the truth, and assuming that if Lawper is wolf factional kill was disabled by Cubs.

 

[Lawpy]

I feel like the 2020 levels of sub persecution are setting in this game, especially given that i stepped into a role that was viewed with suspicion and have to climb out. But this is looking especially grim when considering the numbers

5 village/1 wolf

Yeet me --> one small villager dies --> 4 village / 1 wolf

Night kill happens --> 3 village / 1 wolf, which is a precarious mylo stage

Now we can hope Cray will be successful in blocking night kills to prevent mylo or whether wolves will be evil and toy with intentional no kills

I just don't see how yeeting me helps anything other than making the situation worse for everyone. I was close to finding out the wolves who targeted Dina until Mels redirected me and deactivated my ability. It's a useful and important role

But if people are so deadset on feels, preexisting MSP sketchiness to continue the pattern of yeeting yet another sketchy villager, i'm not sure what to do.

 

[Crayola227]

We are at f6, you can afford to not yeet me this cycle.

If I say someone is village, you will know I am telling the truth and, after I am misyeeted, you will leave that person alone. You may still lose the game by yeeting me, but I will have done everything I could to prevent a loss.

If I say someone is wolf, and you can still opt to yeet me for some godforsaken reason, a wolf win may be mechanically impossible

Trying to think about this every which way to see if it really does work.

 

[Animal Midwife]

My post above explains my issue with it. I'm trying to run the numbers right now to see if that's really viable.

Today
Lawpy
AM
Cubs
April
Shorty
myself

5 villagers, 1 wolf. Yeet a villager, 4 villagers, 1 wolf. Then say wolf has 1 NK, start tomorrow with 3 villagers, 1 wolf. Say AM is wolf, she has us yeet a villager based on her data. That leaves 2 villagers, 1 wolf, and then the NK leads to parity and the game is lost.

And this assumes the last wolf has no mechanism that can lead to a double kill. Could we get lucky with investigative roles working out for us or a failed kill? Sure, but I never assume village is going to be lucky when it comes to NKs.

Also, if we yeet Lawpy and the game doesn't end, what is going to help us decide tomorrow if AM is telling the truth with the item or not? Has anyone had a night result consistent with an item being used on them? The item I used only worked on myself, it wasn't an item I could use on someone else.

If instead we just yeet AM or Lawpy, in whatever order, we will win as long as the wolf is between one of them. And we can hope that one of the investigative roles that does die tonight can give us more data. I fear we're not using occam's razor in assuming AM is telling the truth, and assuming that if Lawper is wolf factional kill was disabled by Cubs.

I'm assuming April has used it before since she knew exactly what I was referring to.

You're literally the only investigative role alive outside of me that I'm aware of. So everything would be balanced upon your word.

I don't feel comfortable letting that be the decider. If Lawpy dies for some reason today, I'm checking you.

Also, if we get to f3, I doubt we will lose. Don't forget cubs seems to be kill-immune.

 

[Crayola227]

I feel like the 2020 levels of sub persecution are setting in this game, especially given that i stepped into a role that was viewed with suspicion and have to climb out. But this is looking especially grim when considering the numbers

5 village/1 wolf

Yeet me --> one small villager dies --> 4 village / 1 wolf

Night kill happens --> 3 village / 1 wolf, which is a precarious mylo stage

Now we can hope Cray will be successful in blocking night kills to prevent mylo or whether wolves will be evil and toy with intentional no kills

I just don't see how yeeting me helps anything other than making the situation worse for everyone. I was close to finding out the wolves who targeted Dina until Mels redirected me and deactivated my ability. It's a useful and important role

But if people are so deadset on feels, preexisting MSP sketchiness to continue the pattern of yeeting yet another sketchy villager, i'm not sure what to do.

I feel like if you're telling the truth, then the wolf is most likely to kill you or me compared to the others. If I block the wolf and they are targeting me, do I die anyway? Also per the rules at the start of the game (so I'm not likely saying anything anyone doesn't already know) I can't block AM again. I don't know who to block tonight.

 

[Crayola227]

I'm assuming April has used it before since she knew exactly what I was referring to.

You're literally the only investigative role alive outside of me that I'm aware of. So everything would be balanced upon your word.

I don't feel comfortable letting that be the decider. If Lawpy dies for some reason today, I'm checking you.

Also, if we get to f3, I doubt we will lose. Don't forget cubs seems to be kill-immune.

How is Cubs kill immune? Do we seriously think that a factional NK on him would be disabled by his ability?

 

[Lawpy]

This is why i don't think rushing to 12/12 now is a good idea. I very clearly see village fatigue setting in as people get increasingly tired by how long drawn and complicated the game is and blindly uniting on any least villagey person they can see because everyone is too village.

Rushing to 12/12 gives limited time to discuss, increase chances of misyeets and worsening the fatigue even more leading to wolf win

 

[Animal Midwife]

I would strongly advocate for no yeeting, but as that's not an option at all, and I don't feel comfortable voting Lawpy, I'm at a standstill for what to do.