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Do you think we're wrong and AM isn't the last wolf? Because I'm like, 95% sure she is
WildZenge Presents: Horizon Zero DaWWn
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Back to the AM plan that's been talked about extensively. I think it's important to note that we are very very likely dealing with just 1 wolf remaining. I've been seeing theories or concerns of 2 wolves remaining but that's too wolf sided from numbers alone, even if village has PRs. I really don't think we are currently on mylo, but we likely will be in D6 if a village misyeet happens now followed by a nightkill
No matter how perfectly someone reads a player, it will always also depend on what that player (doing the reading) is. I have a foil (yes, this part is a foil) where you are wolf partners. So sure, everyone is going to ask AM, but end of the day, that is only ever going to be able to count for so much. Sorry man.
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Her vote behavior has been weird.
supershorty
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I just have a hard time imagining a wolf would lay out a plan like she did today. And I know you guys think I'm pocketed and whatever, but I'm pretty good at reading AM, and I've given her info in our PM that I'm sure wolves would have loved to have so they could get me out of the game (I know, I know, if she flips wolf, I'll be more careful with my PMs). But she's been making a big effort to protect that info.
But I guess you could read that whole paragraph and go "yep, she's pocketed GOOD."
I feel stuck.
Daddy's home! (Cessna). Which is great. But less so for my playing the game more.
Or that ISO I was gonna do
Or that ISO I was gonna do
At the same time, i think it'd be most optimal if we try to increase the number of investigation roles that can survive in the night rather than just giving AM full investigative powers, and i think keeping the watcher alive would help for the night.
I've been struggling to see how an affiliation seering item alone can be so straightforward and simple in a game with so many hard counters against investigative actions. It's the reason that makes me hesitate to fully trust in on AM's plan even though she insists it's foolproof with a failsafe
Maybe i'm sour and frustrated because the one night action that i really did well in watching Dina got sabotaged by Mel's redirection on me that completely handicapped me in N4. Cray's ability also had a hard counter, and iirc TME herself said she could avoid investigative targets on her. This game is not a straightforward game for investigative roles, but at the same time, with Mel dead and knowing cubs is a hard counter to me and Cray, N5 could be made less complicated than before. But placing much trust on AM's affiliation seering item makes me hesitant
I've been struggling to see how an affiliation seering item alone can be so straightforward and simple in a game with so many hard counters against investigative actions. It's the reason that makes me hesitate to fully trust in on AM's plan even though she insists it's foolproof with a failsafe
Maybe i'm sour and frustrated because the one night action that i really did well in watching Dina got sabotaged by Mel's redirection on me that completely handicapped me in N4. Cray's ability also had a hard counter, and iirc TME herself said she could avoid investigative targets on her. This game is not a straightforward game for investigative roles, but at the same time, with Mel dead and knowing cubs is a hard counter to me and Cray, N5 could be made less complicated than before. But placing much trust on AM's affiliation seering item makes me hesitant
This just parroting data of what everyone already knows. What is your actual response to the strategy of testing me or you tonight to allow for AM to solve the game?
I'm responding, hold on pls
Then i think we should not keep pressuring AM every single time for her read on me. A few times is one thing but since the time i subbed in, the focus was heavily on that
Can someone tell me the name of the game with genny and AM as winning wolves?
supershorty
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Donuts. Here's the thread, since I assume you're searching for it and that's why you asked: Donuts and Doughnuts WW - Game Thread
Donuts?
To be fair, MsP put you in a very hard spot as far as hard village data points. Iirc, one night no submitted action, few posts, and weak VCA. Sometimes a sub can't overcome it all.
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Well that's why I'm paranoid that she's buying time because she has some kind of avoidance so if she can get herself to tomorrow then she wins
I saw the stars and thought for a good moment WHO DAY VIG SHOT CUBS
Expect with a vig with multiple shots for wolves to have some kill avoidances, one with night kill avoidance and one with yeet avoidance sounds pretty balanced.
Worth it for someond familiar with flavor to review write ups, Dina's death led to Mel's avoidance, and iirc seemed related to who the characters are. Have to wonder if that's the only wolf upgraded, knowing the source might help with that.
WZ didn't put flavor in player PMs, but even she keeps mentioning the flavor in her write ups.
I'm not against flavor clues for solving, it's the reductive "well this is a Star Trek game Capt Kirk can't be a bad guy!" thinking! Or "Yeet Kahn!" That really gets to me.
Worth it for someond familiar with flavor to review write ups, Dina's death led to Mel's avoidance, and iirc seemed related to who the characters are. Have to wonder if that's the only wolf upgraded, knowing the source might help with that.
WZ didn't put flavor in player PMs, but even she keeps mentioning the flavor in her write ups.
I'm not against flavor clues for solving, it's the reductive "well this is a Star Trek game Capt Kirk can't be a bad guy!" thinking! Or "Yeet Kahn!" That really gets to me.
supershorty
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I thought genny's death led to Mel's avoidance?
@supershorty
The failsafe isn't something that relies on a claim made by AM, right? As in, it's something to do with something where the only source of the info is what AM is claiming about her own ability and how it works, right? Even if she proved her ability to you.
I'm hoping it's based on something mods told you or April directly.
The failsafe isn't something that relies on a claim made by AM, right? As in, it's something to do with something where the only source of the info is what AM is claiming about her own ability and how it works, right? Even if she proved her ability to you.
I'm hoping it's based on something mods told you or April directly.
supershorty
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Yeah, it was genny's death.
Oh, I don't know. I thought something about Dina's ability or role matched up with someone else or a flipped wolf.
supershorty
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Oh frak, could the final wolf have had an upgrade with the death of the last wolf, Mel?
The problem with any mechanical "failsafe" is it's extremely rare in WW that for any mechanism, there isn't some other mechanism that can defeat it. It's why there's really no such thing as a "failsafe" mechanism in WW.
You have a bomb, but then you have a bomb-proof wolf (RvB). You have an alpha wolf, but then you have an alpha killer (Alpha Dubz game). You have a vigilante, but then you have a wolf with NK avoidance (this game) and on and on and on.
There's usually more exceptions to rules than rules.
A brief ISO of AM from Donuts and this game wasn't very reassuring.
Not to AtE, but why is my enjoyment never relevant here? I literally spent hours on this plan to get myself and one other person out of the POE, when I could have just thunderdomed Lawpy and blamed village for thinking overly simplistic. I knew blame doesn't save a village, so I worked and perfected until I made a plan that even I can't use for a loophole.
If it's a loss, I will blame everyone who voted me today however. It's one thing if I didn't have this plan. But no one will explain how the fears work. I've debunked ever single one and I still get ignored.
"but what if we lose tomorrow"
"how"
"xyz could happen"
"xyz can happen but the plan still results in a village win"
"but what if we lose tomorrow"
"how"
"abc could happen"
"abc cannot happen because it's mechanically impossible"
"but what if we lose tomorrow"
"we wont"
"but what if we lose tomorrow"
"do you have a plan that will guarantee a village win"
"no"
"so why not try this that will stop even w!midwife"
"but what if we lose tomorrow"
If we yeet AM now and AM flips wolf, the game is likely over
If we yeet AM now and she flips village, D6 will be in a much worse position with probably me likely being yeeted in mylo and contributing to village loss
If we let AM survive, we can see what's the result of her plan with a cleaner context and focus in mylo, which imo is a lot better than yeeting AM now and potentially facing a far worse mylo situation
In fact, i discussed this yesterday i think with AM and Cray when initially thinking about using me as a village sacrifice since unfortunately no yeet isn't an option so we're forced to vote or risk on a tie that can be high risk for a potential reward of no yeet.
So for AM to survive, this is what i was thinking about in trying to maximize the number of investigative roles that make it through the night to supplement AM's affiliation seering item rather than just banking it on that item alone. Having a watcher alive is a critical asset to complement this and give a more complete context for mylo to easily spot and yeet the last wolf. Keeping the blocker alive would also help but i'm struggling to see who can Cray reliably block. I think shorty or aprils might help further rule out any deepwolfing concerns. Cray blocking me will disrupt watching and Cray blocking AM will disrupt the seering, and unfortunately, Cray can't block cubs.
Part of the reason why i suggested the cubs yeet is factoring in all these possibilities to maximize the village success in mylo. cubs doesn't have an investigative power and has past history of bussing. cubs says he can be investigated by non-machines but from AM's perspective, this is too much of a risk to take, especially since me, Cray and TME are all machines with investigative powers and the one non-machine investigative role is a wolf. So this doesn't help.
Ties are too risky but there can be a possible chance of having a no yeet resulting from it, but again, it's a really risky option. I've been a pro-tie villager many times before even in dying in ties in games like Colorado WW and Navs Unknown games, since in these cases, i got a wolf to die with me. But i think if we're concerned about the impact on tiemaker, i'll be willing to take that risk as tiemaker since my death will help give better clarity for mylo.
If we yeet AM now and she flips village, D6 will be in a much worse position with probably me likely being yeeted in mylo and contributing to village loss
If we let AM survive, we can see what's the result of her plan with a cleaner context and focus in mylo, which imo is a lot better than yeeting AM now and potentially facing a far worse mylo situation
In fact, i discussed this yesterday i think with AM and Cray when initially thinking about using me as a village sacrifice since unfortunately no yeet isn't an option so we're forced to vote or risk on a tie that can be high risk for a potential reward of no yeet.
So for AM to survive, this is what i was thinking about in trying to maximize the number of investigative roles that make it through the night to supplement AM's affiliation seering item rather than just banking it on that item alone. Having a watcher alive is a critical asset to complement this and give a more complete context for mylo to easily spot and yeet the last wolf. Keeping the blocker alive would also help but i'm struggling to see who can Cray reliably block. I think shorty or aprils might help further rule out any deepwolfing concerns. Cray blocking me will disrupt watching and Cray blocking AM will disrupt the seering, and unfortunately, Cray can't block cubs.
Part of the reason why i suggested the cubs yeet is factoring in all these possibilities to maximize the village success in mylo. cubs doesn't have an investigative power and has past history of bussing. cubs says he can be investigated by non-machines but from AM's perspective, this is too much of a risk to take, especially since me, Cray and TME are all machines with investigative powers and the one non-machine investigative role is a wolf. So this doesn't help.
Ties are too risky but there can be a possible chance of having a no yeet resulting from it, but again, it's a really risky option. I've been a pro-tie villager many times before even in dying in ties in games like Colorado WW and Navs Unknown games, since in these cases, i got a wolf to die with me. But i think if we're concerned about the impact on tiemaker, i'll be willing to take that risk as tiemaker since my death will help give better clarity for mylo.
Thunderdoming Lawpy wouldn't have worked if you can be yeeted tomorrow. If you're trying to get a misyeet today, you have to be very careful how you go about it.
The "failsafe" plan is fine and well and good for everyone who is actually village that knows about it and can assess its validity for themselves. For the rest of us poor village scrubs, what is really unreasonable here is you expecting us to get the "genius" of a plan we know literally nothing about and have never seen in years of WW play.
And no, you don't get to blame anyone voting you today, least of all not me. I blocked you. No one died by wolf's hands. I don't know what this failsafe claim is. My actions here are completely reasonable.
And I didn't ask April to do anything different for my enjoyment. I want people to be very cautious of assumptions and PMs, that's all I've really asked of most people most games.
Yes i mentioned this yesterday when i was referring to the sub persecution phenomenon that i notoriously experienced much of last year by subbing into sketchy roles and being yeeted for it
It's why i speak from bitter experience that if literally the only options are between AM and me with no consideration for cubs or any other player or ties, then use me as a village sacrifice now and not in mylo.
supershorty
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How do you feel about AM being against this idea?
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No, there's not 4 wolves. I talk to you about this every game, but a balanced game does not exceed 25%.
4 is more than 25%.
Overdose kills.
Any way that Cubs' death, with his unique ability, has any effect on the failsafe or remaining wolf's abilities?
supershorty
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Idk about the second part but it wouldn't affect the failsafe, no.
Can you show me where she was against this pls?
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@supershorty how much can you fault me on VCA when the votes were fixed on Sporty or TME, even despite those 2 being widely viewed as wolfy with 1 misyeeted and 1 vigshot?
Also i wagonomiced in madagascar and bioshock. I wasn't lying when i said i would've done the same if the Mel wagon dissipated. It was a response to the hypothetical scenario of someone in Mel wagon having cold feet
This is exactly why I hate mechanics so much. There's an incessant double standard where literally anyone else can float a theory. If I say anything against it, I'm viewed as shutting down discussion. So I rarely comment.
Then when I finally feel I understand it, I get attacked because "I'm not supposed to ever understand this stuff." The fact that I was even able to explain it words for once made me proud. But this game, every past game, and all future games will receive this lukewarm response. It's beyond frustrating and makes me want to continue to be inward and disconnected during any mechanic discussion.
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I don't feel like I have a ton to fault either you or cubs on and that's why I am feeling very stuck and confused right now. Because my read of someone has to be off.
At this point, AM should be justifying which of Cubs or Lawpy should be yeeted, and not just trying to push her "failsafe plan."
If she isn't wolf and she wants someone else who is wolf to die in her place today and tomorrow, she needs to explain who is the remaining wolf and why.
Sounds like she's cleared Lawpy with her reading card. So she's convinced it's me or Cubs then?
And the only way this theory of hers works is with Cubs or myself doing an intentional no kill night.
If she isn't wolf and she wants someone else who is wolf to die in her place today and tomorrow, she needs to explain who is the remaining wolf and why.
Sounds like she's cleared Lawpy with her reading card. So she's convinced it's me or Cubs then?
And the only way this theory of hers works is with Cubs or myself doing an intentional no kill night.
I already address this a few hours ago.Well that's why I'm paranoid that she's buying time because she has some kind of avoidance so if she can get herself to tomorrow then she wins
I've always, always highly appreciated your insight into mechanics when it seems like you are actually considering what is being proposed before explaining why based in it's own merits it won't work.
I will say, that I just reminded myself of something I've seen you do wolfing, and not sure you do it villaging. You often complain about people's expectations of your play. Makes sense that is often more frustrating to people when they are trying to wolf.
Well i'm confused because the only option that leaves is Cray blocking me or Cray blocking no one. It devalues Cray's investigative powers, which kinda furthers my earlier point that relying too much on AM's own investigative powers may not be a good idea. At least by keeping the watcher alive, we have potentially an extra data point to corroborate with seering results, but at the same time, Cray using the block to rule out deepwolfing options is also important.
If village wants Midwife alive then they’re getting it, but I’m not going to just off vote. Lawper isn’t any clearer than I am, so if you want the midwife deal, I’m moving to lawper. And if this doesn’t work, I want an asterisk next to my name in the “Biggest Village Choke Game” in the 2021 AWWards.
Unvote AM
Vote Lawper
Unvote AM
Vote Lawper
At least watching doesn't interfere with village powers being used in the attempt to find a wolf. Blocking is more double edged sword.
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That's why i'm suggesting another route in supplement to AM's plan rather than banking it all on AM's investigative powers.
No Cray. I will blame you. I'm allowed to be petty when I say something that doesn't just boost village win chances but also straight up guarantees a village win and you willingly ignore that. You read me wrong, you blocked me wrong (this is not the part I'm upset about), and then you don't even try to see my riskless plan through (this is what infuriates me). Every single reason it would "fail" is due to a tinfoil, which I've somehow managed to debunk those as well.
supershorty
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@Animal Midwife can you explain why you're against Cray blocking me or April?
The item I had, had a "cost" to it. It protected me but also took away any night results besides that.
Dude. I said I cleared Lawpy. I'm voting for cubs.
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