How to Survive the WWinter - Speed Game

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I was going to go out to one of our cars to actually take pictures of the type of stuff I keep in there "for emergencies," but rule #1 of winter for me is don't go outside when it's cold and dark.

To give you a sense, though... I know for sure there is an extra bubble tea straw, 6 lip glosses, a pair of clean socks, and an unopened nips-size bottle of Grand Marnier in my purse, because I "cleaned it out" the other day but decided "eh...I might need those."

Just in case. :xf:
 
PippyPony said:
I was going to go out to one of our cars to actually take pictures of the type of stuff I keep in there "for emergencies," but rule #1 of winter for me is don't go outside when it's cold and dark.

To give you a sense, though... I know for sure there is an extra bubble tea straw, 6 lip glosses, a pair of clean socks, and an unopened nips-size bottle of Grand Marnier in my purse, because I "cleaned it out" the other day but decided "eh...I might need those."

Just in case.
Click to expand...
I gotchu boo.

Vehicle Emergency Kit -- Ideas and Brainstorming

I obsess over this ****. Hence why this speed game was catnip.
 
Kinda wish I had changed my vote on D2 to alissa now. It would've triggered her lynch avoidance (contradicting her "self-prez" defense) AND I'd be alive one more day. I might have been killed immediately that night, but we would've killed alissa on D3 then only had meats to sniff out.
 
I kept thinking... if only I could convince one of three players (miz, mutts, and jboo) I’m not a wolf, I’m set... I win.. I was not successful 🤣
 
PippyPony said:
..LOL, @SARdoghandler 's real survival implements survived :laugh:
Click to expand...

The irony of this is so strong and I love it immensely. Meant to be.

PippyPony said:
I was going to go out to one of our cars to actually take pictures of the type of stuff I keep in there "for emergencies," but rule #1 of winter for me is don't go outside when it's cold and dark.

To give you a sense, though... I know for sure there is an extra bubble tea straw, 6 lip glosses, a pair of clean socks, and an unopened nips-size bottle of Grand Marnier in my purse, because I "cleaned it out" the other day but decided "eh...I might need those."

Just in case. :xf:
Click to expand...

You probably don't want to know what I keep in my trunk for a survival kit hahah
 
That feel when you re-read the thread after the game.

giphy.gif
 
Besides Vote Count Analysis, we need Reaction Count Analysis because there's a LOTTTTTTTT of posts this game with @vetmedhead and @alissa14 reacting as a group. They were cautious to split up their votes but not their reactions. Lots of examples with only them reacting to multiple posts. And lots of reactions where they "agreed" with our suspicions on other villagers.

:thinking:
 
Just spent about 1 hour re-reading the entire thread, something I wouldn't do in a longer game that's like 5000 posts instead of 500. *hangs head in shame* but I can't be the only person to do this...right? Right? 😉

@Ms Procrastinator and @mizchiefmanaged were spot on in many, many posts. I should've paid more attention to them. Same with @BigCats



I'm still calibrating what's important and what's not important:

  • I'm gonna pay more attention to BS reasoning in the future and BS analysis.
  • I'm gonna be more suspicious of people who shy away after 1 post when questioned, hoping it'll go away.
  • I think Vote Count Analysis is important but I shouldn't place TOO MUCH emphasis on it alone. Sometimes wolves vote together on purpose. Sometimes they like to distance themselves to not attract too much attention.
  • I'll pay more attention to reactions, but there's WAY more data points with reactions than with lynch votes, so this is like 10x more tedious. Like I wouldn't do a Reaction Count Analysis (with timestamps) because that would take HOURS. But I'll pay more attention to what feels like fake reactions e.g. fake likes, fake laughter, fake :thinking: etc.
  • I'll pay more attention to "couplets" e.g. two people against each other. Sometimes it's a wolf-villager combo or villager-wolf combo. Sometimes it's wolf-wolf simultaneously busing each other. [Edit: Though sometimes it's two villagers suspecting each other, which I'm not sure how to read at this point.]
  • Just like in real life, the best lies have a hint of truth to them. E.g. in this game Alissa role revealed that she had a lynch avoidance (which was true) but that alone is NAI and could be either wolf or village.
  • I'll be more selfish and pay WAY more bloody attention to ties. I literally had 100% power to save myself from getting tied with Alissa (3 her and 3 me) and I could've changed my vote at the last minute towards her in pure self-preservation, but I was too stubborn with my jboo tunnel. I'm very, very stubborn with tunnels, and I've noticed that about myself over several WW games.
  • Tinfoil has its place, but it should be secondary or tertiary or lower in priorities. I should go off of other things first like fake reads that are just filler; e.g. "I'm gettings vibes about _____" -- Ok, explain your vibes you wolfy wolf.
  • I used to go full OCD with a WW spreadsheet but it got way too tedious. I think it might be helpful to at least print out a list of the players at the beginning of the game and use pen and paper and just "journal" my thoughts and feels. Totally free-form.
  • I don't know how I feel about silent players. Like johnnaboo was silent and did grocery shopping, and MsP was silent but was busy with IRL stuff. Both flipped village but I suspected them too much. I'm sure wolves use IRL excuses but it's not necessarily BS if someone says they're busy.
  • This bears repeating: Reaction Analysis. There were quite a few posts with fake bull**** reactions and there were also posts where it was literally only alissa and VMH reacting or it was 2 out of 3. This might be more people's "meta," so as I get to know the players' play styles, I'll be able to analyze them better based on their post reactions.
  • Lastly: Anytime I use humor and joke that someone could be a wolf, I've always dismissed it and psyched myself out for the rest of the game. This is different than going off my gut feelings: specifically, if I make JOKES that someone is a wolf, I need to do a double-take and look more closely at it. Because this game I was 2 for 2, 100%, no false positives or negatives.
 
Last edited:
Stroganoff said:
Just spent about 1 hour re-reading the entire thread, something I wouldn't do in a longer game that's like 5000 posts instead of 500. *hangs head in shame* but I can't be the only person to do this...right? Right? 😉

@Ms Procrastinator and @mizchiefmanaged were spot on in many, many posts. I should've paid more attention to them. Same with @BigCats



I'm still calibrating what's important and what's not important:

  • I'm gonna pay more attention to BS reasoning in the future and BS analysis.
  • I'm gonna be more suspicious of people who shy away after 1 post when questioned, hoping it'll go away.
  • I think Vote Count Analysis is important but I shouldn't place TOO MUCH emphasis on it alone. Sometimes wolves vote together on purpose. Sometimes they like to distance themselves to not attract too much attention.
  • I'll pay more attention to reactions, but there's WAY more data points with reactions than with lynch votes, so this is like 10x more tedious. Like I wouldn't do a Reaction Count Analysis (with timestamps) because that would take HOURS. But I'll pay more attention to what feels like fake reactions e.g. fake likes, fake laughter, fake :thinking: etc.
  • I'll pay more attention to "couplets" e.g. two people against each other. Sometimes it's a wolf-villager combo or villager-wolf combo. Sometimes it's wolf-wolf simultaneously busing each other. [Edit: Though sometimes it's two villagers suspecting each other, which I'm not sure how to read at this point.]
  • Just like in real life, the best lies have a hint of truth to them. E.g. in this game Alissa role revealed that she had a lynch avoidance (which was true) but that alone is NAI and could be either wolf or village.
  • I'll be more selfish and pay WAY more bloody attention to ties. I literally had 100% power to save myself from getting tied with Alissa (3 her and 3 me) and I could've changed my vote at the last minute towards her in pure self-preservation, but I was too stubborn with my jboo tunnel. I'm very, very stubborn with tunnels, and I've noticed that about myself over several WW games.
  • Tinfoil has its place, but it should be secondary or tertiary or lower in priorities. I should go off of other things first like fake reads that are just filler; e.g. "I'm gettings vibes about _____" -- Ok, explain your vibes you wolfy wolf.
  • I used to go full OCD with a WW spreadsheet but it got way too tedious. I think it might be helpful to at least print out a list of the players at the beginning of the game and use pen and paper and just "journal" my thoughts and feels. Totally free-form.
  • I don't know how I feel about silent players. Like johnnaboo was silent and did grocery shopping, and MsP was silent but was busy with IRL stuff. Both flipped village but I suspected them too much. I'm sure wolves use IRL excuses but it's not necessarily BS if someone says they're busy.
  • This bears repeating: Reaction Analysis. There were quite a few posts with fake bull**** reactions and there were also posts where it was literally only alissa and VMH reacting or it was 2 out of 3. This might be more people's "meta," so as I get to know the players' play styles, I'll be able to analyze them better based on their post reactions.
  • Lastly: Anytime I use humor and joke that someone could be a wolf, I've always dismissed it and psyched myself out for the rest of the game. This is different than going off my gut feelings: specifically, if I make JOKES that someone is a wolf, I need to do a double-take and look more closely at it. Because this game I was 2 for 2, 100%.
Click to expand...
I’m glad I made up for it a bit this game because my reads the last few games have been total trash 🤣
 
mizchiefmanaged said:
Thank you all for being patient with me when my schedule went from only one scheduled thing to explosive!!!
Click to expand...
Honestly I thought the horse anesthesia/MRI was an excuse too, but my tinfoil hat is way too bloody tight and need to stop using tinfoil as primary or secondary in my ddx. Ugh.
 
Stroganoff said:
Besides Vote Count Analysis, we need Reaction Count Analysis because there's a LOTTTTTTTT of posts this game with @vetmedhead and @alissa14 reacting as a group. They were cautious to split up their votes but not their reactions. Lots of examples with only them reacting to multiple posts. And lots of reactions where they "agreed" with our suspicions on other villagers.

:thinking:
Click to expand...
I think this is a good idea, but in reality, would be a real bi*ch to put together
 
Regarding VCA, it's about how you use it. There should be no hard and fast rules of acceptable moves, otherwise you're letting your bias close off potentially important options. Things like wolves voting together are contextual. If a bunch of wolves are trying to save an buddy (whether for endgame or PR reasons) they may vote in a chunk. Alternatively, they may vote together on a bus for cred if it looks like a lost cause (being mechanically outted or otherwise just flailing against accusations near lynch close).

It's much of the same for voting apart. Used to show more independent analysis and to avoid scaring villagers off a mislynch with the packthink pushing.

Like the thing I mentioned in dead chat about how the vig shot was clearing despite killing a villager, always read deeply into the context. This reveals more about affiliation than a black-and-white scan of the situation.
 
I actually had fun being a wolf for the first time! It’s nice to have someone there to bounce ideas and thoughts off of. Usually it’s just villager me talking myself in a circle, tinfoil hat in tow. Thanks Pippy for a fun game!
 
Stroganoff said:
Besides Vote Count Analysis, we need Reaction Count Analysis because there's a LOTTTTTTTT of posts this game with @vetmedhead and @alissa14 reacting as a group. They were cautious to split up their votes but not their reactions. Lots of examples with only them reacting to multiple posts. And lots of reactions where they "agreed" with our suspicions on other villagers.

:thinking:
Click to expand...
I did notice Alissa liking a lot of the same posts as me, but didn't tell her anything about it because I thought it would be weirder if we never liked the same posts

FWIW I like and react to tons of things wolf or otherwise. I can remember plenty of games where people would yell at me for seeming lurky for liking like fifty posts on thread while I caught up before I replied to anything lol

When I first started wolfing I hardly liked anything for a while because I was afraid of being called out for it again, but after a while I decided eff it because liking things is fun 😛 I wasn't lying to you in dead chat when I said those were legitimate likes/reacts and not pocketing attempts!

I guess my point being that you're not wrong that there's stuff to be learned from looking at reactions but you may need to interpret it carefully as it can spiral into WIFOM pretty fast
 
vetmedhead said:
When I first started wolfing I hardly liked anything for a while because I was afraid of being called out for it again, but after a while I decided eff it because liking things is fun 😛 I wasn't lying to you in dead chat when I said those were legitimate likes/reacts and not pocketing attempts!
Click to expand...
I believe you. I think Alissa's reactions were way more sketch, especially overdoing the :thinking: reactions -- seemed too forced to me.

Ms Procrastinator said:
So you've never randed wolf? 🤔
Click to expand...
I don't think so. I was converted once in a Lounge game in '05 or '06 (ok boomer) I think with rojo and another wolf, and we cleaned house and it was hella fun. I don't think I've ever started wolf, ever. Definitely not in my n=3 or n=4 pre-vet games.
 
SARdoghandler said:
Meanwhile, I'll just be up here in Canada where we had a full week of about -40.

In good news, it's back to near freezing now so that's nice and I'm practically out in shorts and a t shirt
Click to expand...
jesus
guess im lucky that it was only -15 in Ontario then
 
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