For fellow waitlisters,
I thought I would provide some inference regarding the tiers as an econ major. (there is a lot of assumptions here, bear with me).
What we know (fact):
- On a statistically normal year, 25 people matriculated from the waitlist.
- There is a realistic possibility for group 2 to be admitted from the waitlist in an statistically average year.
- (from cst in 2010-2011 thread) In the "worst year" for wait-listers (i.e., best year for Yale's initial yield), 19 matriculants (of final class of 100) students were from the waitlist pool
- (from cst in 2010-2011 thread) In the "best year" for wait-listers, 49 matriculants (of the final class of 100) students were from the waitlist pool --> they must reached into tier 3
- tier 3 (largest, >45%)>tier 2>tier 1 (10% total WL)
Here's the assumptions I made:
- Assuming that 50% of the waitlistees offered a spot will matriculate.
- Yale offered 288 acceptances last year (fact) and it was a statistically normal year. That means about 225 were first round and about 50 came from WL. (which resulted into 25 matriculants from WL)
- Assuming the the "realist possibility" for tier 2 means that 50% of the time they will reach the bottom of tier 2.
Based on the above fact and assumption, then this is what I imagine what Yale WL looks like:
100 waitlistees remained was tiered after the May 15 deadline.
10% of the WL are tier 1 ~10 people and everyone got accepted eventually. (~5 matriculants on a normal year)
40% of the WL are tier 2 - 40 people and 50% of the time everyone was accepted. (~20 matriculants on a normal year)
50% of the WL are tier 3 - 50 people
Let me know what you think about my estimate.
Oh and I have a final tomorrow at 8AM. Probably should go back to studying.