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I have considered this aspect as well and feel like it is a major factor. The gap year has been gaining popularity and our data show that med school applications fell about about 10% last year. This year I suspect that those who took the gap year, and those who had planned to take a gap year this year and did not, combined for a majority of the increase. Other factors initiated by the AAMC like the increase in the FAP limit and extension of the MCAT dates, offering more MCAT testing opportunities by (40-50%), reduction in the testing times were, I suspect, also lesser contributing factors. There were projections earlier in the application season that projected a drop in applications. I greatly discount the "F effect" theory that is being espoused, most successful applicants began the journey to this application season 2+ years ago.I think that it is due to students who were going to have gap years decided to apply this year due to the pandemic limiting activities.
Also students who didn’t think they’d have time to study enough for the MCAT had more time than expected due to situations like being laid off.
I would be interested in hearing from any applicants who did not intend to apply this year, but decided to do so for xx reason.
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