2023-2024 Carle-Illinois

[zerobaseonetrash]

Post II R LOL

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[zerobaseonetrash]

Post showcase R, not surprised as I butchered my virtual interview

also got the R but it wasn’t really an interview? it was more like an info session

 

[Matroda]

also got the R but it wasn’t really an interview? it was more like an info session

I'm referring to the one-way interview completed with the secondary app

 

[bluelion27]

+1 WL

 

[deleted1176515]

Does anyone know what waitlist movement looks like at this school?

 

[BitofNothin]

+1 WL

 

[mayway]

Waitlisted showcase 10/24

 

[ambassador6]

+1 WL

 

[BitofNothin]

Does anyone know what waitlist movement looks like at this school?

i heard they accept an amount very close to their total amount and then pull from WL as people decline, but someone said the Dean said they’re accepting double their class size so I don’t know

 

[BSeamons182]

WL showcase 12/4

 

[jessicat10119]

WL received this afternoon!

 

[shom86]

For WL folks, I think the admissions offers referred to in the letter are from January, since we’re not seeing any today (could be that A’s aren’t on SDN I suppose). Guessing today has been all WL’s and R’s and they’re just waiting to see how many spots free up?

 

[squirrel_whisperer]

Haha that was me, but this time is based on only 1 data point so it's only a wild guess. There's no way to know what time decisions will come out today (if it even is today).

well your speculations were right. +1 WL

 

[BitofNothin]

For WL folks, I think the admissions offers referred to in the letter are from January, since we’re not seeing any today (could be that A’s aren’t on SDN I suppose). Guessing today has been all WL’s and R’s and they’re just waiting to see how many spots free up?

U think they’re done with non waitlist A’s?

 

[premedcactus]

WL Showcase invite 10/28

 

[rhoskir]

+1 WL

 

[rhoskir]

My friend got accepted though!

 

[Muq]

Waitlisted

 

[ephemerality]

+1 WL showcase 12/4

 

[ormtespmed]

+1 WL Showcase 10/17

 

[deleted1176515]

Does anyone know when we can expect to hear back about the waitlist? We have lives to plan and this cycle is already long enough.

 

[BitofNothin]

Also looks like they’re ahead of last years, like they accepted hella in Jan and waitlisted hella just now so who knows

 

[BitofNothin]

Also anyone know if they accept updates from waitlisted?

 

[Pizzzzzza10]

+1 waitlist

Worked as a full time mechanical engineer for 3 years after undergrad so I was really hopeful for this one. Crossing my fingers for some waitlist movement later!

 

[shom86]

View attachment 382992View attachment 382991


Trying to visualize the data from the post-WL A data found here:

https://students-residents.aamc.org/system/files/2023-11/MSAR_Waitlist_Procedures_11.29.23.pdf

Looks like on average we WL applications have a 30% chance of getting an acceptance.

Students waitlisted	Students admitted from waitlist	Percentage
80​	20​	25%​
40​	20​	50%​
55​	40​	73%​
35​	25​	71%​
40​	10​	25%​
100​	25​	25%​
100​	0​	0%​
100​	10​	10%​
200​	75​	38%​
150​	45​	30%​
300​	35​	12%​
150​	50​	33%​
125​	120​	96%​
175​	40​	23%​
200​	25​	13%​
120​	40​	33%​
150​	75​	50%​
310​	110​	35%​
300​	75​	25%​
150​	25​	17%​
200​	100​	50%​
150​	47​	31%​
200​	37​	19%​
200​	0​	0%​
50​	30​	60%​
100​	40​	40%​
300​	60​	20%​
300​	20​	7%​
150​	70​	47%​
175​	25​	14%​
200​	100​	50%​
100​	15​	15%​
200​	60​	30%​
80​	22​	28%​
600​	300​	50%​
400​	60​	15%​
30​	17​	57%​
100​	20​	20%​
75​	25​	33%​
50​	25​	50%​
75​	35​	47%​
50​	11​	22%​
200​	35​	18%​
275​	75​	27%​
250​	50​	20%​
250​	50​	20%​
300​	65​	22%​
350​	30​	9%​
600​	201​	34%​
250​	100​	40%​
150​	20​	13%​
150​	50​	33%​
300​	60​	20%​
380​	30​	8%​
70​	25​	36%​
300​	40​	13%​
50​	10​	20%​
100​	40​	40%​
200​	70​	35%​
500​	25​	5%​
100​	25​	25%​
10​	8​	80%​
250​	20​	8%​
200​	25​	13%​
200​	75​	38%​
100​	75​	75%​
300​	100​	33%​
125​	50​	40%​
40​	25​	63%​

Holy…

 

[Matroda]

I wonder how people withdrawing from waitlists affects the accuracy of that data. I would think it would cause less A's to be reported from WLs, making that ~30% an under-approximation. Not sure how frequently people withdraw from WLs though

 

[2023applicantxd]

View attachment 382992View attachment 382991


Trying to visualize the data from the post-WL A data found here:

https://students-residents.aamc.org/system/files/2023-11/MSAR_Waitlist_Procedures_11.29.23.pdf

Looks like on average we WL applications have a 30% chance of getting an acceptance.

Students waitlisted	Students admitted from waitlist	Percentage
80​	20​	25%​
40​	20​	50%​
55​	40​	73%​
35​	25​	71%​
40​	10​	25%​
100​	25​	25%​
100​	0​	0%​
100​	10​	10%​
200​	75​	38%​
150​	45​	30%​
300​	35​	12%​
150​	50​	33%​
125​	120​	96%​
175​	40​	23%​
200​	25​	13%​
120​	40​	33%​
150​	75​	50%​
310​	110​	35%​
300​	75​	25%​
150​	25​	17%​
200​	100​	50%​
150​	47​	31%​
200​	37​	19%​
200​	0​	0%​
50​	30​	60%​
100​	40​	40%​
300​	60​	20%​
300​	20​	7%​
150​	70​	47%​
175​	25​	14%​
200​	100​	50%​
100​	15​	15%​
200​	60​	30%​
80​	22​	28%​
600​	300​	50%​
400​	60​	15%​
30​	17​	57%​
100​	20​	20%​
75​	25​	33%​
50​	25​	50%​
75​	35​	47%​
50​	11​	22%​
200​	35​	18%​
275​	75​	27%​
250​	50​	20%​
250​	50​	20%​
300​	65​	22%​
350​	30​	9%​
600​	201​	34%​
250​	100​	40%​
150​	20​	13%​
150​	50​	33%​
300​	60​	20%​
380​	30​	8%​
70​	25​	36%​
300​	40​	13%​
50​	10​	20%​
100​	40​	40%​
200​	70​	35%​
500​	25​	5%​
100​	25​	25%​
10​	8​	80%​
250​	20​	8%​
200​	25​	13%​
200​	75​	38%​
100​	75​	75%​
300​	100​	33%​
125​	50​	40%​
40​	25​	63%​

Jesus Christ

 

[Sandman23]

The things I'd do to get into Carle....I want you, why don't you want me

asparagus_liker is def getting in, I just wanna join the crew

 

[Sandman23]

View attachment 382992View attachment 382991


Trying to visualize the data from the post-WL A data found here:

https://students-residents.aamc.org/system/files/2023-11/MSAR_Waitlist_Procedures_11.29.23.pdf

Looks like on average we WL applications have a 30% chance of getting an acceptance.

Students waitlisted	Students admitted from waitlist	Percentage
80​	20​	25%​
40​	20​	50%​
55​	40​	73%​
35​	25​	71%​
40​	10​	25%​
100​	25​	25%​
100​	0​	0%​
100​	10​	10%​
200​	75​	38%​
150​	45​	30%​
300​	35​	12%​
150​	50​	33%​
125​	120​	96%​
175​	40​	23%​
200​	25​	13%​
120​	40​	33%​
150​	75​	50%​
310​	110​	35%​
300​	75​	25%​
150​	25​	17%​
200​	100​	50%​
150​	47​	31%​
200​	37​	19%​
200​	0​	0%​
50​	30​	60%​
100​	40​	40%​
300​	60​	20%​
300​	20​	7%​
150​	70​	47%​
175​	25​	14%​
200​	100​	50%​
100​	15​	15%​
200​	60​	30%​
80​	22​	28%​
600​	300​	50%​
400​	60​	15%​
30​	17​	57%​
100​	20​	20%​
75​	25​	33%​
50​	25​	50%​
75​	35​	47%​
50​	11​	22%​
200​	35​	18%​
275​	75​	27%​
250​	50​	20%​
250​	50​	20%​
300​	65​	22%​
350​	30​	9%​
600​	201​	34%​
250​	100​	40%​
150​	20​	13%​
150​	50​	33%​
300​	60​	20%​
380​	30​	8%​
70​	25​	36%​
300​	40​	13%​
50​	10​	20%​
100​	40​	40%​
200​	70​	35%​
500​	25​	5%​
100​	25​	25%​
10​	8​	80%​
250​	20​	8%​
200​	25​	13%​
200​	75​	38%​
100​	75​	75%​
300​	100​	33%​
125​	50​	40%​
40​	25​	63%​

Brodie is on one

 

[rhoskir]

I guess it's just more waiting for the rest of us. See you guys in April/May when the waitlist starts to move.

 

[rhoskir]

According to Cycletrack, there have been 8 acceptances and 6 rejections (4 in January and 2 yesterday). My friend said the groupchat has 54 members, so there's a multiplier of 54/8=6.75 to convert from Cycletrack numbers to estimated real data. Using this multiplier, 6*6.75=40.5 (let's round to 40) estimated rejections have been given out. Assuming everyone has heard back so far, 350-54-40=256 are on the waitlist. Carle gives 120-140 offers, which implies 66-86 offers to be given in the future. Therefore, the chance of getting off the waitlist as of now is between 66/256=25.78% and 86/256=33.59%. This lines up with asparagus_liker's calculated average across medical schools.

There is some bias in Cycletrack and SDN as people are more willing to report acceptances than rejections, implying that there have been more rejections given out than I estimated. Although I can't calculate this, it means that our chances of getting off the waitlist are slightly higher than what I calculated.

I used many assumptions in this calculation so this is only a very rough estimate. I should mention that in Carle's email response to me, they said that there is a varying number of people each year who give up their Carle acceptance so they are not able to predict how many they will pull from the waitlist.

 

[Sandman23]

how you gunna apply to an engineering medical school and not like numbers


View attachment 383010

What a g

 

[BitofNothin]

According to Cycletrack, there have been 8 acceptances and 6 rejections (4 in January and 2 yesterday). My friend said the groupchat has 54 members, so there's a multiplier of 54/8=6.75 to convert from Cycletrack numbers to estimated real data. Using this multiplier, 6*6.75=40.5 (let's round to 40) estimated rejections have been given out. Assuming everyone has heard back so far, 350-54-40=256 are on the waitlist. Carle gives 120-140 offers, which implies 66-86 offers to be given in the future. Therefore, the chance of getting off the waitlist as of now is between 66/256=25.78% and 86/256=33.59%. This lines up with asparagus_liker's calculated average across medical schools.

There is some bias in Cycletrack and SDN as people are more willing to report acceptances than rejections, implying that there have been more rejections given out than I estimated. Although I can't calculate this, it means that our chances of getting off the waitlist are slightly higher than what I calculated.

I used many assumptions in this calculation so this is only a very rough estimate. I should mention that in Carle's email response to me, they said that there is a varying number of people each year who give up their Carle acceptance so they are not able to predict how many they will pull from the waitlist.

I mean assuming everyone has heard back is a pretty bold assumption, but assuming it’s majority rejections coming out in March like the graph implied, I think that’s a good conservative guess, I.e chances could even be better than ur percentages but again, this is all just engineers using numbers to cope with uncertainty like we always do

 

[rhoskir]

I mean assuming everyone has heard back is a pretty bold assumption, but assuming it’s majority rejections coming out in March like the graph implied, I think that’s a good conservative guess, I.e chances could even be better than ur percentages but again, this is all just engineers using numbers to cope with uncertainty like we always do

You are correct that it is a bold assumption, but they said in their email that they finished finalist reviews earlier so I think it’s a good approximation. You are also correct that my math is just a hardcore cope lmao.

 

[Sandman23]

I no joke visit this thread every day....

 

[Sandman23]

Who's gonna call when the next batch of decisions goes out? I'm sure in March, past cycles have had mainly rejections then. Any glimmering hope of a WL turning to an A then?

 

[bluelion27]

Anyone waitlisted thinking about sending an update/letter of interest? I know Carle doesn't accept updates but do we think they may be more accepting of a letter from someone waitlisted?

 

[BitofNothin]

Anyone waitlisted thinking about sending an update/letter of interest? I know Carle doesn't accept updates but do we think they may be more accepting of a letter from someone waitlisted?

Nah I emailed them, they’re adamant that they don’t want any letters

 

[rhoskir]

Anyone waitlisted thinking about sending an update/letter of interest? I know Carle doesn't accept updates but do we think they may be more accepting of a letter from someone waitlisted?

I remember them saying, either during the showcase or in one of the videos they posted, that they do not accept update/interest letters to keep it fair among all applicants. I don't remember the exact reason, but it was something similar to this. So basically they don't want you to send any letters and if you do, they won't read it.

 

[Sandman23]

Anyone waitlisted thinking about sending an update/letter of interest? I know Carle doesn't accept updates but do we think they may be more accepting of a letter from someone waitlisted?

Tryna pull a VCU move....I see you

 

[Sandman23]

Ah boys, starting to realize it's gonna be a lonnggggg wait for Carle.....in the meantime, who wants to get a head-start on Step 1?

Jk...idek what's goin on... the jokes are dry and my brain feels like it's bleeding. Happy Sunday everyone

 

[rhoskir]

I emailed admissions about waitlist data in previous years and they responded with "The data is extremely variable from year to year, therefore our decision is to not provide that information". So unfortunately no amount of predictive analysis or math can help us gain an estimate of our acceptance chances.

asparagus_liker and I can't use math to cope with our waitlist status anymore

 

[applicant2323]

Withdrew my application (WL 2/21). Good luck everyone!

 

[Sandman23]

The days are eeking by....day 6 post-WL

 

[signomiii]

Is everyone okay

 

[deleted1176037]

Not really, I really want to get in off the waitlist, but there's nothing to do but wait.

 

[Sandman23]

Is everyone okay

He just needs some asparagus

 

[rhoskir]

Fantasizing about Carle
View attachment 383358

View attachment 383356

I don't think Cycletrack's percentages are accurate since there is a very low sample size (especially for Carle last year). There is a lot of waitlist movement at this school, but the percentage of students accepted off the waitlist varies heavily each year. Our chances are very likely to be much higher to get off the waitlist than 5% as many students decide not to stay on the waitlist due to acceptances at other schools, which Cycletrack considers as them not being accepted from the waitlist.

 

[signomiii]

I don't think Cycletrack's percentages are accurate since there is a very low sample size (especially for Carle last year). There is a lot of waitlist movement at this school, but the percentage of students accepted off the waitlist varies heavily each year. Our chances are very likely to be much higher to get off the waitlist than 5% as many students decide not to stay on the waitlist due to acceptances at other schools, which Cycletrack considers as them not being accepted from the waitlist.

Second this. While Carle is an amazing one of a kind school, I think a lot of people who have As or are on the WL will end up choosing more established/older schools. I also think Carle only accepts class size at the start while others may overaccept. I feel like there’s always a lot of movement and I’m rooting for both of you to get off

 

[rhoskir]

Fantasizing about Carle
View attachment 383358

View attachment 383356

In addition (since you seem to love math and numbers like I do lmao), take a look at the statistics provided. Out of the 50 students accepted, 20 of them (40%) were accepted off the waitlist. Although this isn't a 40% chance to get off the waitlist, it means that we can infer that our chances are much greater than 5%. Also, remember that between 120-140 acceptances are given for 350 showcase invites. This is a post-interview acceptance rate between 34% and 40%, which is higher than the 26% post-interview acceptance rate shown on Cycletrack.