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the math gives me a lot of hope as well but I'm still so fearful of some unforeseen change in their selection methodology where they interviewed and accepted students that they felt were more likely to choose them and produce a higher yield. but also, that's just the stress stalking hahathe reason for that is quinnipiac is already a school that has historically low yield, about 20% overall or 5 acceptances for 1 matriculant on average. But generally speaking, waitlist yield is usually lower than initial yield at most medical schools due to people on the PWL already having other acceptances etc. Especially true for Quinnipiac since it is private and is known to not give out a ton of scholarships so people often choose their cheaper in-state school or prefer to go to a higher ranked school.
The math also starts breaking down if this were not true and only triple the seats available for waitlist movement are offered acceptances- I'm basing this on admit.org data, but around 480 acceptances were given total in 2025 and currently they've already given out "300 something" seats according to an adcom. We must assume these numbers will remain within a general ballpark because schools normally do not have massive fluctuations year to year.
We know Quinnipiac sometimes clears the entire PWL, but sometimes does not according to what they told people in interviews and testimonies on admit (e.g. 2 years ago it was cleared and people got off from the regular waitlist, but last year it was not). So they cannot have something like 180 acceptances left because then they would clear the PWL basically every single year which contradicts this known info. So a more likely scenario is around 90-130 remaining offers. If they only offered triple the remaining seats, we would be many acceptances short of reaching that target number of "something similar to 480."
This means, again assuming similar numbers with historical data, there should be around 200-250 ish people who interviewed that are currently not holding an acceptance. PWL and regular waitlist is likely not a 50/50 split, as PWL is almost always much smaller than the regular waitlist at most med schools. So a realistic estimate would be around 80-100 people on the PWL, which fits the math and is just enough people for them to sometimes clear the PWL and sometimes not. Any larger than that and the distinction between priority vs. regular waitlist starts to lose meaning.
But all of this is literally just napkin math. It may be possible that the person who said an adcom told them they gave out 300 something acceptances so far just misinterpreted what they meant, or maybe remembered it wrong. Maybe the adcom who said they're expecting to fill 10 seats from the waitlist was just making a wild guess without knowing the details, or trying to manage expectations. Maybe this is in fact a year with massive fluctuations in numbers due to BBB and other factors. Maybe the first 10 people they call from the waitlist will just happen to accept the offer. There are a lot of variables that cannot be known, so the best we can do is work with the information we have. I may be comically wrong at the end of the day, nobody knows. We'll find out in a couple of days either way