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- Nov 5, 2019
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you know... I never thought I would miss AM and her badgering. But it's sooo nice to see her using words. Welcome back 🙂
So in other words, anything can happen. I'm pointing out that using this as an argument is moot. Can't say I've ever seen this specific ratio written out though and it's far from universal knowing I'd never use it in my games.it and of itself is not a standard mechanic
but the
25% person 1
25% person 2
25% both
25% tie creator
or whatever it is
is commonly used
and no, I don't know, but who would want to be the one to find out? not me
Lulzit's far from universal knowing I'd never use it in my games.
I think if you're looking for wolfy behavior in that, idk, there are multiple scenarios that may have occuredthis makes me feel better but I think I'm keeping my contingency on Mrs. Do you have any thoughts on who had wolfy behavior through all that?
my personal go-to tie mechanism is a secretSo in other words, anything can happen. I'm pointing out that using this as an argument is moot. Can't say I've ever seen this specific ratio written out though and it's far from universal knowing I'd never use it in my games.
@alissa14 therefore essentially, a MRSDRDR (don't ask why I keep typing in caps) lynch is actually statistically supported as a means of getting informationI think if you're looking for wolfy behavior in that, idk, there are multiple scenarios that may have occured
1) If hypothetically all the claims were legit (even Dina's was honest... a non-wolf role she was excited about 😛 Although now that I've said this, didn't genny also state hers was non-wolf rather than village?)
1.a) and MRSDRDR is village, I believe any behavior should be NAI, and that a wolf would be just as likely to waffle from a villager with a PR claim to another presumed villager
1.b) and MRSDRDR is wolf, then any votes driving the lynch away from MRSDRDR (I believe this happened twice? Once earlier in the evening and then again right at lynch close, when the last votes went to Dina vs MRSDRDR)
2) If the role claims were not legit, I'm going to be honest, that's a bit more that I'd be able to try to piece together right now
yeah I keep telling myself that a having a lynch tracker of today would be so nice right now but there is no way I'm making one tonight. Thats for future Alissa to worry about. Ok biochem time (I keep procrastinating)I think if you're looking for wolfy behavior in that, idk, there are multiple scenarios that may have occured
1) If hypothetically all the claims were legit (even Dina's was honest... a non-wolf role she was excited about 😛 Although now that I've said this, didn't genny also state hers was non-wolf rather than village?)
1.a) and MRSDRDR is village, I believe any behavior should be NAI, and that a wolf would be just as likely to waffle from a villager with a PR claim to another presumed villager
1.b) and MRSDRDR is wolf, then any votes driving the lynch away from MRSDRDR (I believe this happened twice? Once earlier in the evening and then again right at lynch close, when the last votes went to Dina vs MRSDRDR)
2) If the role claims were not legit, I'm going to be honest, that's a bit more that I'd be able to try to piece together right now
don't laugh pipster, the WW god has spokenLulz
ooh pick me I know itmy personal go-to tie mechanism is a secret
at least I think I've kept it a secret
ANYWAYS
I DON'T LIKE EXPERIMENTING BY CREATING TIES
I WILL NOTooh pick me I know it
I think
@cubsrule4e questioning why you're awake still?
S2e8 for me. I bet you’ll catch up 😛Why not? Ozark S2 E1
I'll listen to you on Barks but can't support a zj lynch
Based on that line from sporty, definitely a resurrector out there. I’m trying so hard to believe that there must be some sort of benefit for mel and the village to be lynched the way he did. Otherwise, if the sacrificial lamb is like the noob game, he would’ve died tonight and there wouldn’t have been night kills. this would also mean he was wasting our time lynching him when we could’ve been wolf hunting. That’s so anti village and to pull something like that as a villager is just disappointing. I want to believe Mel wouldn’t do something like that regardless of affiliation. So I’m led to believe that there’s something else mechanically going on behind the scenes that none of us are privy to. My theories are either some sort of role upgrade upon rez or some janitor mechanism in play
Just got caught up.
Would quote messages but that would take me to long and it’s wayyyy past my bedtime.
Feeling good about genny and cubs, their interacting, posts, and responses to the thread.
Am and pip seem like their village selves, but I’m not ready to say they are 100% village.
Not feeling good about Sunny. Seems highly stuck in a tunnel, I know people have its their meta, but not feeling it right now.
Kota seems to have good reasoning with her votes and seems to be wolf hunting, village lean right now.
Would like to hear more from jen, seems to be pretty quiet compared to her first game when I was clearly reading her village.
These are all the people I can think of right now, I’m legitimately falling asleep as I type this.
I hope to be more active tomorrow, but it won’t be till later in the evening, and depending on how many pages there are, will determine my activity.
Goodnight y’all!
On reread, JJ (to my dismay) comes off more wolf than village
currently in the pile of more wolf than village along with JJ is barks.. maybe Dina but that's just feelz
currently in more village than wolf pile is zj and kota
currently in the I hope they're a wolf just for fun is 3M
seeing as mel did not actually flip wolf (like what the fragment) those who earned points for that lynch concurrently lost them
Well since it’s day, I’ll post most of my reads based off all of yesterday:
So, I was leaning towards Jenjen as a wolf, especially since they showed up posted a lynch with no good explication and then unlynches when she gets called out, also because of the fact that Mel defended her D1. However, surprisingly Mel flipped village, so I am going to have to reevaluate her if she posts more.
I think Pippy is more village, I believe her pointing out the potential double kill mech was more to help villagers then to benefit her as a wolf. If she was a wolf seeking to gain village cred, I feel like there would be better ways to do it then reveal a potential double kill mech.
Ms. pops up N1 to ask “why did everyone go after Mel,” which if she read she would know. And she must’ve read some of it cause she new everyone jumped to Mel, unless she just read the write up. She’s on my radar especially sense she was absent all day and failed to vote. Same goes for Turkey, and they didn’t post at all after D1 closes.
Dubz I feel eh with, mainly because she seems genuine in her information/reads and lynch behavior. But I think it is weird that she so adamantly defended me and Jenjen and Alissa almost immediately back off with not a lot of explanation (especially on Jenjens side). I don’t know how alpha wolf works in this game, but if an alpha doesn’t like where their pack mates are lynching, they could sway their opinions with little to no protest, but this is just speculation.
The Ziggy and Paws debate bothers me a little. I’m still leaning towards Paws being wolfy because
1. She apologized to Ziggy but not really (she shrugged and didn’t seem like the really meant it), and I feel like a villager would be more genuine in their apology to avoid suspicion or arguments in the future that may not help them
2. When Mrs. asked Paws for a read reveal they simply said the “have several leads I am poking” and didn’t give a definitive answer or anything that would contribute to the game solving
3. I don’t like the joking around with Catier regarding Meows (around posts #300), it may just have been for fun but it is still a little sketch, and I think something a wolf would maybe do to be distracting, with that Catier is also on my radar.
Also I think it’s weird Sun was pushing ziggy so hard, and then Paws sort of stepped in and argued with ziggy. Also on Sun, I think they are to hyper focused on ziggy, and being sort of arrogant about it like they believe only they are right. I don’t know if this is wolfy or not, but your on my radar.
Ziggy I am a little suspicious of -
The opener never said anything about whether it would be bad clan wise or wolf wise to reveal your clan, it just said it wouldn’t be a good idea. Now a wolf might know more about the mechanism, and since ziggy didn’t write this as speculation I am a little suspicious. I do want to go back and look through their earlier posts regarding the mechanism though.
Now, I will say I don’t think Ziggy, Paws and Sun could all be wolves based on their interactions, so I’m not going to start lynching there.
Wow I really have trouble following these write-ups. Why didn't Sunbodi kill her killer?
I thought I remembered her saying lynch ziggy if I die? Or was that someone else? I feel like given the experience of a lot of people in this game they might pick Sun because she was going to hard on some people to lead us in that direction, but also they probably know we know that's what they'd want us to do... :/
you didn't post any thoughts on anybody except for on Kota yesterday
and the way that you spoke about Mel made it sound like you expected him to flip as non-wolf
I am amused by how similar these reads are
Re-evaluations after sunni flipped village?
That would help, I was wondering how knew who the plane was
@Ms Procrastinator are you going to participate during the day cycle today or just post after lynch has already closed again?
Whoever asked me about coffee...I'm still at least a page behind but from what I've read I feel substantially better about her.
I feel worse about JJ and especially liked the point she made about him expecting Mel to flip village
I also feel marginally better about AM, and maybe a little worse about Alissa?
Agree that Barks should be pushed today
I'm not totally convinced that @Animal Midwife is actually restricted to memes only
I'm confused, if AM wasn't actually restricted to memes, why would she only be posting with them? Isn't it better to use words?
lynch cubs
Wolves knew it was a fauxjo -> why would Mel do that -> bomb?? -> not gonna hop on that lynch
I meant brokenstar oops. Too many names sound similar. Stormfur Stonefur
I see this has already been mentioned but I am really uncomfortable with your focus on this
I am not feeling all the focus on Alissa at the moment. Also feel like Pippy coming at Alissa so hard to be a littllleee fake-ish. Especially with all the jokes and comments about Pippy posting things about clans and mechanics right out of the gate.
Not really ready to give Pippy a designation one way or the other.
[mention]Barkley13 [/mention] this was the only post I could find that definitively gave your reads, and this was last night. a lot of your other posts were questions or information did not really contribute much to your initial reads. For instance when Doggo asked what you thought about Sunny and Mel filling village your response was to ask what doggo thinks about it, and you said you stuck by your previous thoughts (which are quoted above). I would like newer reads before I decide to consider switching my lynch
lynch barks
Im just not convinced yet. Her participation today seems slightly forced and an attempt to "make up" for lack of participation yesterday.
The other thing I find odd aside from the strange doggo interactions, is that she has been completely avoidant around everyone voting her. Normally she gets pretty defensive as a villager at the first sign of falling under suspicion, and right now she is basically throwing around contributions and discussion with the people who have said anything about her. In this large of a game, maybe she feels like a few votes arent that harmful if she can appear normal to everyone else (read: damage control), plus there are more wolves to have an impact on the lynch.
In my last game, people kept mentioning how saying some things can help the wolves. The thing with that is that my last game was all noobs, so the wolves probably didn't realize those things on their own, so saying that it can help the wolves probably did end up helping the wolves. I guess this game is different because most players are experienced, so I guess it would just be stating the obvious, but I would still want to be careful when saying things like that.
Noob wolves are particularly scared wolves.
- I interpreted AM's memes to mean something related to Mel that I largely ignored/chalked up to her whining about it
- JJ immediately interpreted the same thing as "are you wondering why I visited sunbodi last night?" which came out of NOWHERE imo
- I stronglysuspect wolves killed Sunbodi N1 because a few people (including me) made the mistake yesterday of telling people/reminding people she took down a whole pack of wolves consecutively the last time she played, and wolves got scared as hell
- JJ admits today that she indeed was afraid of Sunbodi. Specifically, she was afraid Sunbodi would notice her and convince people to lynch her.
Wolves in general are often scared of strong, aggressive players -- ESPECIALLY when those players have a track record of being correct. They are less afraid of me because my wolf reads often suck and so I get villagers lynched for them lol
Scared wolves kill off perceived threats ASAP (which is why Paws said yesterday that she expects to be dead in a few days if she is doing her usual village thang). They simply cannot take the risk of someone leading lynches on their whole pack.
So JJ admitting she was scared of Sunbodi does nothing to assuage my concern that she could be part of a noob wolf pack who killed SunnyB off before she noticed them acting wolfy. It affirms exactly what I was already worried about.
Edited to fix pronouns!
Sure
I feel like 3m's posts haven't really caught my attention which makes me feel like she has been flying under the radar and has been quieter than usual
Gut feels says paws is village
I'm a bad manator so I keep trying to remember if Mrs has ever been a villager before lol
Eriyo I thought seemed okay yesterday, and while I don't always agree with them today I still am leaning them more toward the village side
I also feel like wondering is a lot more talkative than she has been so I'm taking note of that too and hoping to hear more from her
There's also a lot of people who really haven't talked much at all
* pippy seems village to me, but I only read her well when she is chaos.
Fair, you're right.
I'm still not so sure about @genny, she went hard on Mel since the beginning but we haven't really gotten any updates on her thoughts since then. Also, she said
which makes me think my interpretation isn't as crazy as everyone's making it out to be, lol. I'm curious about her thoughts. I am neutral on them rn. She reacted to my post then never posted anything after.
I'm probably wrong about AM, I'll give y'all that. I'm not really sure about who looks suspicious to me, I will go back and think on it some more. Alissa's frustration feels genuine to me and also Kota hasn't been bandwagoning and has been asking for thoughts/evidence behind lynch votes consistently which feels village to me.
Pippy I'm getting village reads from. She's pushing me super hard, a bunch of people are, but I get it (how my words could be misinterpreted). However I do think earlier on I was getting pushed super hard for not as valid a reason when I said this
At first everyone was calling me a wolf because of the Mel stuff when I feel like I justified myself on it. And that kept getting brought up until I said the stuff about Sun, then everyone was on me about that instead when they were super concerned about my post about Mel before.
That was me talking about AM, not Sun.
I'm gonna keep reading back because honestly I don't feel like I have enough to vote on someone yet.
Yes and the last time I relied solely on a tone/behavior read she was a wolf lol I would just really like to see some content posts from her today
What dog pile on me?
@genny you have something you wanna share with the class? You're not voting JJ but you're sure acting like you think the rest of us should be.
Hmmm. JJ lynch smells bad to me at this point.
@SportPonies is probably like "what the heck u talking about, pip? you modded one game with me and think you know all my modly secrets?" lol
Part me is curious that we haven’t heard much from wondering, but if I’m remembering correctly it’s also not uncommon for her to be quieter/not around
Okay so for the sake of I want some peace to read the rest of the thread at my leisure, I’ll give my reads based on since I got subbed plus me attempting to stay up on the thread when I wasn’t even playing yet. Which maybe involved some skimming or ignoring which is why I’m rereading.
village: I’ve got AM purely feels/tone, same with genny and dina I feel like what I remember reading from Dina were solid contributions and it made me feel pretty good. Ziggy seems normal to me so village for now. Same with covefee I remember some people questioning something she did early game so I’ll have to go back and reread I know it was her v. Pippy. I already said I feel okay about Alissa.
Kota, eriyo, JJ, and doggo are people I’m pretty sure have posted enough that i should have a feel but I don’t so they’re at the top of my ISO. BC and wondering have fallen a little far under the radar for me and I don’t like that. Pippy has me shaking my head I can’t decide where I want to put her. Same with Dubz. Caiter and cubs have both given me wolf feels but I couldn’t tell you why, besides like a tone gut thing so I’m not ready to vote there. MsP and snowy obviously don’t have enough info yet.
I know I’ve left some people out but I’m working on it.
You should look into hawkfrost, darkstripe, and brokenstar for baddies too
Why do you think this? I’d really like more context/reads from you about different members, JJ included.
unlynch Barks
Lynch Dubz
I’m feeling better about barks now that they contributed some substantial reads and answering questions. I am suspicious of Dubz because they haven’t posted much content that is helpful in the game development, and pretty much have gone along with other people or stated they don’t like something. Also, I find it weird that alissa, BC and Jenjen(not really relevant cause of the sub but still a good thing to point out) all backed off of a suspicion after Dubz called them out.
I wanted to break the tie and see what happened.
No, I'm giving instructions on how to run the thread after y'all murder me tonight.
I think Dubz once made it through killing off like 14+ villagers BY HERSELF to win a game, and all the while, everyone thought she was the most village person playing the game.
So I'd take her descriptions of her own meta with a grain of salt.
That said, I think her assessment of her village game play is accurate lol. It's variable in terms of level of depth.
I never said I was a genny expert. I’m not sure where that came from. I just trying to read you and everyone else.
Has she done it to this depth as a wolf before? Or do you just mean in general?
that was how I read it. And re-reading it now, I still get that. I found it annoying, and got it off my chest.You're mischaracterizing. Pippy wasn't saying not to lynch the noob just because she's a noob.
Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation?Death is coming. DIC
That's your only takeaway from yesterday? The noob must be lying about the role because you think it would be more powerful or something, and Pippy is annoying?that was how I read it. And re-reading it now, I still get that. I found it annoying, and got it off my chest.
the JJ thoughts still stand though. Don’t believe that role is real. Don’t believe that vague information would be what the role would give. I am ok lynching her noob, vet.
Stepping in to say this ability has existed for years. Shocked you claim not to know it exist despite your years of experience.that was how I read it. And re-reading it now, I still get that. I found it annoying, and got it off my chest.
the JJ thoughts still stand though. Don’t believe that role is real. Don’t believe that vague information would be what the role would give. I am ok lynching her noob, vet.
I had reasoning for Dina, I just didn't put it on the thread.I recognize that the bandwagon against Dina it didn’t lead to a villager lynch but that chaos role sounded potentially pretty helpful to village...what was that Dina situation last night? Sadly I fell asleep before close. There was basically no reasoning at all. Genny switched to Dina and then Pippy said not to lynch the noob and suddenly Dina is lynched with very little time to defend. I’m not even completely convinced with the noobs role reveal? It’s basically all sketch. Sure genny is PR claiming but those actions do not scream village?
I have to go take my very last exam of third year, be back around lunch.
You can’t bully me into doing what you want.I agree with you on genny and will go back there if I don't see strong evidence to the contrary.
Into posting like a villager? I would think you'd be self-motivated to do that. 😉You can’t bully me into doing what you want.
I agree with this. Leaning pips more wolfy.
I like this analysis
I initially liked this post, but now against kotas post it reads very similar to the newb's thoughts.
pippy is getting riled.. I like her jj vote though
I recognize that the bandwagon against Dina it didn’t lead to a villager lynch but that chaos role sounded potentially pretty helpful to village...what was that Dina situation last night? Sadly I fell asleep before close. There was basically no reasoning at all. Genny switched to Dina and then Pippy said not to lynch the noob and suddenly Dina is lynched with very little time to defend. I’m not even completely convinced with the noobs role reveal? It’s basically all sketch. Sure genny is PR claiming but those actions do not scream village?
I have to go take my very last exam of third year, be back around lunch.
It's a holiday in MA today. Patriots' Day! They used to shoot off cannons in my hometown at like 5am lolhow the heck are you east coast people still awake at this time on a Sunday
it's 9:30 and I'm exhausted
Okay, this is going to be a briefer then usual 1st read on certain people cause I’m late for work —
I’m still not convinced Dubz is village. I liked that she provided a more in-depth read when I pushed her a little, but I think I’m still gonna lynch here for now unless something changes my mind.
contingency lynch Dubz
JJ based on her character in the book, I’m going to say is village. Jayfeather is a good character and doesn’t do much terrible stuff, I know the mods could change that around and ability doesn’t always equal role, but so far with whose come up dead the mods seem to be basing the evilness of book character’s on whether someone is a wolf or not.
Alissa I am leaning village on right now, pretty much based on how they reacted about suspicions on them. They were very open.
I do not like how the Dina lynch transpired. Especially when Genny unlynched alissa for Dina with no explanation and then Pippy follows suit with an explanation of “I can get behind that.” In addition to this, I don’t like that earlier Dubz lynched then Unlynched genny without much explanation, and Pippy follows suit afterwards. If Dubz, pippy or genny flip wolf I think the other two or at least one of them may also be a wolf, unless it’s very coincidental.
I’m feeling better about Barkley today, but they are still on my radar.
I don’t have much in dolphin yet, have to ISO. And snowy is leaning village at the moment.