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Unless there's not a single engaged veteran wolf in the pack, I just can't see the pack letting Stella play like this. I've been wrong about giving too much benefit to what turn out to be seemingly clueless noob wolves, but I know Capri and Ny are crafty, and I'll take out proven crafty wolf candidates that have sketch signs around them over a player playing so painfully noob-tastic I just don't even know how/why a wolf would fake it to get where Stella is right now.
 
We started with 16 players, right? Probably 3ish total wolves including conversion. Though I think I've seen it done with 2 originals, a convert, and a lone wolf. I don't think there was an additional third party role in that game but i could be wrong.
 
Crayola227 said:
Wizard of Oz. Or, Pippy is green, which is often neutral or some 3rd party faction in WW.
Click to expand...

Huh. Clever thought. I glossed right past that part of it.

You might be right. But I'm not convinced enough to lynch Pippy, and I'm notorious for wanting to lynch ANYTHING not-village.

For the moment, Pippy is village as best I can tell.
 
WildZoo said:
We started with 16 players, right? Probably 3ish total wolves including conversion. Though I think I've seen it done with 2 originals, a convert, and a lone wolf. I don't think there was a third party role in that game but i could be wrong.
Click to expand...

Is a typical kd game 25% or 20%? Does initial size make a difference?
 
Coopah said:
I acknowledge your point, but isn't it your rule to keep her around until 2/3 of the way through then lynch her no matter what?

I'm not really sure what I'm arguing here but I don't like the ny vote and I don't think you do either so more of a "ok I got it".
Click to expand...

I dunno 'bout "rule," but yes, Nyanko is someone I routinely want to lynch - with frustration - mid-game just because I can't figure her out and that's dangerous. So unless there's good seering involved, I usually start to lean toward lynching her.

Thing is, there are a bunch of players like that, and you only have so many lynches in a game, so it gets hard to lynch them all. Especially when there are people you ACTUALLY find sketchy. So even though yeah, I do feel that way, it rarely really seems to work out in practice.
 
LetItSnow said:
I dunno 'bout "rule," but yes, Nyanko is someone I routinely want to lynch - with frustration - mid-game just because I can't figure her out and that's dangerous. So unless there's good seering involved, I usually start to lean toward lynching her.

Thing is, there are a bunch of players like that, and you only have so many lynches in a game, so it gets hard to lynch them all. Especially when there are people you ACTUALLY find sketchy. So even though yeah, I do feel that way, it rarely really seems to work out in practice.
Click to expand...

What I can't figure out, is why she's playing this way now. Is she really upset villager? or are these wolf cries? Has she ever played like this before? I've never seen it.
 
Crayola227 said:
Is a typical kd game 25% or 20%? Does initial size make a difference?
Click to expand...
Going off of memory I seem to recall her commenting that the noob game may have been a little wolf heavy at just over 20%

Honestly don't remember what the ratio was last game...there were 4 originals and a convert but don't recall how many players that game started with
 
Crayola227 said:
What I can't figure out, is why she's playing this way now. Is she really upset villager? or are these wolf cries? Has she ever played like this before? I've never seen it.
Click to expand...
Played what way? Being snarky as hell and not really caring what anyone thinks about how she should be playing? That's classic Ny.
 
WildZoo said:
Going off of memory I seem to recall her commenting that the noob game may have been a little wolf heavy at just over 20%

Honestly don't remember what the ratio was last game...there were 4 originals and a convert but don't recall how many players that game started with
Click to expand...

IIRC, that was partly because they were noobs, 25% even with noob wolves, but good wolfators, would be too deadly for a noob village.
 
WildZoo said:
We started with 16 players, right? Probably 3ish total wolves including conversion. Though I think I've seen it done with 2 originals, a convert, and a lone wolf. I don't think there was an additional third party role in that game but i could be wrong.
Click to expand...

I would hope 2 + convert (total 3), not 3 + convert (total 4).

4 in a 16 player game is a 1:3 ratio, which is too wolf-heavy unless there are significant benefits on the villager side.

ETA: Or just 3 with no conversions. But basically - total of 3, not 4. Probably 2 + conversion because straight 3 is a little hard on the wolves and the conversion is worth a bit more than an original weight-wise.
 
*******************************************
Unofficial AM Knows Your Sins Day 2 Lynch Tally

Alli (1) - Capri
Nyanko (3) - Alli, Cray, Stella
Lawper () -
Coopah () -
capri (3) - WZ, Pippy, genny
Stella (5) - LIS, Coop, Weim, ny, Lawpy
Cray () -
WZ (1) - Snowy

13/13 voting
lynch close in 15 minutes
*******************************************
 
Crayola227 said:
IIRC, that was partly because they were noobs, 25% even with noob wolves, but good wolfators, would be too deadly for a noob village.
Click to expand...
It was because of the autolynch and autokill actually - village automatically lost two players in the first cycle rather than there being a chance for a wolf lynch.

Last game started with 24 players. You could say 1/4 total non-villagers, because 4 originals + convert + chaos.
 
LetItSnow said:
I would hope 2 + convert (total 3), not 3 + convert (total 4).

4 in a 16 player game is a 1:3 ratio, which is too wolf-heavy unless there are significant benefits on the villager side.

ETA: Or just 3 with no conversions. But basically - total of 3, not 4. Probably 2 + conversion because straight 3 is a little hard on the wolves and the conversion is worth a bit more than an original weight-wise.
Click to expand...
Yeah that's what I was thinking as well.
 
WildZoo said:
Played what way? Being snarky as hell and not really caring what anyone thinks about how she should be playing? That's classic Ny.
Click to expand...

Mm, that is. The part that was like (paraphrase) "no one will miss me as a villager" - the woe is me guilt trip, you hurt ma feelz that almost made me unlynch her
Then the part that was like "anyone that comes for me is a wolf" vague threat things

Honestly, it reminded me of my own play. Given her rep for not giving a damn and being smart, that just doesn't fit to me.
 
capri1722 said:
I’m with you on the Ny lynch. Yeah I didn’t go about revealing my info in the best way, but still. That’s about the hardest clear so far and I’m willing to stick by it even if it gets me lynched.

Side note, if either Ny or I flip village tonight, can I point to everyone on her lynch and say I told you so, or is that bad form? 😛
Click to expand...
I do it all the time 😉
 
LetItSnow said:
I would hope 2 + convert (total 3), not 3 + convert (total 4).

4 in a 16 player game is a 1:3 ratio, which is too wolf-heavy unless there are significant benefits on the villager side.

ETA: Or just 3 with no conversions. But basically - total of 3, not 4. Probably 2 + conversion because straight 3 is a little hard on the wolves and the conversion is worth a bit more than an original weight-wise.
Click to expand...

Redo the math. 4/16 is 25%. As I understand it, that is in the range of what is considered typical in WW per Google.
 
capri1722 said:
I’m with you on the Ny lynch. Yeah I didn’t go about revealing my info in the best way, but still. That’s about the hardest clear so far and I’m willing to stick by it even if it gets me lynched.

Side note, if either Ny or I flip village tonight, can I point to everyone on her lynch and say I told you so, or is that bad form? 😛
Click to expand...

You can do what you want, but "I told you so" is pretty petty. I mean, duh, villagers wouldn't lynch villagers if we knew someone was a villager. And someone "telling us so" is like ... yanno .... cause a wolf would never lie, right?

I always think it's stupid when a villager gets lynched and immediately posts "SEE! I TOLD YOU SO!!!"

This classic meme always seems appropriate to me:

giphy.gif
 
LetItSnow said:
Didn't Lawp kinda glom on the D1 lynch toward the end after it was already decided, too? Or am I making that up (very possible).
Click to expand...
According to the final lynch tally Lawpy didn’t even vote for Kal. Edit: ninja’d by DubZ
Animal Midwife said:
*******************************
Unofficial AM is always watching Day 1 Lynch Tally

Kal is in the lead.

LIS (2) – allie, WZ
Lawper () –
Pippy () –
Mixed Animals (2) – Crayola, Coopah
YoungKal (4) - LIS, Pippy, capri, Mixy
Nyanko () -
Allieh () -
Stellamud (1) - Weimmama
SnowshoeDog (1) - Genny
capri (1) - Lawpy

11/15

lynch close in 5 minutes
*******************************
Click to expand...
 
Crayola227 said:
Redo the math. 4/16 is 25%. As I understand it, that is in the range of what is considered typical in WW per Google.
Click to expand...
1:3 = 25% which is typical in some places where WW is played but here would be wolf heavy
 
Crayola227 said:
Redo the math. 4/16 is 25%. As I understand it, that is in the range of what is considered typical in WW per Google.
Click to expand...

You redo the math. If it is 4 wolves in a 16-player game that's 1 wolf for every 3 villagers, or a 1:3 ratio, like I said.

The ratio should be closer to 1:4 or even a bit more.

ETA: Historically, here, in these games. If you got a different answer from Google, sure, I can believe that. But that's not consistent with the games here, in my recollection.
 
Crayola227 said:
What I can't figure out, is why she's playing this way now. Is she really upset villager? or are these wolf cries? Has she ever played like this before? I've never seen it.
Click to expand...
Are you seriously lynching her because you don't like her play style? Hello? You throw a fit everytime someone tries to lynch you because you act like cray!
 
I kinda feel like ny would be fighting harder if she was wolfy given that they are already down 1 wolf.

Yeah, she does her own thing...but having wolfed with her in the past, she also doesn't screw over the pack or go down without a fight. I think she'd be more aggressively fighting today if wolf.
 
PippyPony said:
I kinda feel like ny would be fighting harder if she was wolfy given that they are already down 1 wolf.

Yeah, she does her own thing...but having wolfed with her in the past, she also doesn't screw over the pack or go down without a fight. I think she'd be more aggressively fighting today if wolf.
Click to expand...

Mmmmm. Maybe. But she's not in the lead (anymore), so she could just be sitting there letting things shake out, rather than risk fighting and giving someone a reason to switch back to her.

I mean, I gotta admit, with Capri soft-clearing Nyanko I'm surprised it was even an issue for this lynch. But....
 
And now for the KTSM evening news.

"Good evening, wild accusations flew today and after a fiery exchange of words the mob descended on @Stella Mudd. She offered little resistance and was quickly dispatched by the crowd. Police determined she was not involved with the criminal group LeMastitisNow. They are still seeking leads in that case and request that citizens call the tip line. Please don't take matters into your own hands."

It is now Night 3. Lynch will close at 6 am Central/7 am Eastern/4 am Pacific.

There are 12 players remaining.

Roster:
1. @Crayola227
3. @Lawper
4. @allieh8607
5. @WildZoo
6. @genny
8. @LetItSnow
9. @WeimMama
10. @PippyPony
12. @SnowshoeDog143
13. @nyanko
14. @capri1722
15. @Coopah

NPC: @Mad Jack

Dead: @Animal Midwife (Vanillager)
Dead: @youngkal (Wolf)
Dead: @MixedAnimals77 (Vanillager)
Dead: @Stella Mudd (Vanillager)
 
WildZoo said:
@PippyPony and @LetItSnow, what are your reads on cray right now?
Click to expand...
I dunno.

I mean, I kinda know. But uggghhh I am about to go to bed so I don't know if I have the energy for that fight right now.

Tl;Dr: I feel like she's been even more erratic than usual.

Details:
Her actual reads have felt ok, but her votes have not matched up well. Has swung pretty widely on a lot of her reads, while kind of following others' logic more than usual.

I am sketched by the selective edge to the teaching: didn't she say she was going to help Stella? But most of her instruction posts have been aimed at Lawper and she largely ignored Stella until tonight.

I'm probably still netting village on her but it's a very, very, very slight lean.
 
I'm relying on you guys a bit because you've wolfed with her 😛
My previous inclination has been to kind of ignore her since she would probably get herself night killed or lynched anyway. Obviously that didn't work well for the game that shall not be named, but I'm not sure if I've swung too far the other direction.

Idk, will probably vote there. Too many red flags to ignore for me if no one is going to yell at me and tell me I'm being dumb.
 
WildZoo said:
I'm relying on you guys a bit because you've wolfed with her 😛
My previous inclination has been to kind of ignore her since she would probably get herself night killed or lynched anyway. Obviously that didn't work well for the game that shall not be named, but I'm not sure if I've swung too far the other direction.

Idk, will probably vote there. Too many red flags to ignore for me if no one is going to yell at me and tell me I'm being dumb.
Click to expand...
Nope, don't think you're being dumb. This is a legit concern of mine as well; she is now on my general list of people who should be lynched before end game.

Just am not ready to move there yet, I don't think.
 
Coopah said:
Are you seriously lynching her because you don't like her play style? Hello? You throw a fit everytime someone tries to lynch you because you act like cray!
Click to expand...

Like many, I go by if the behavior seems within that person's norm or makes sense for that person given the circumstances and what we know in the game. Is it logical for WW, is it logical for their style of play? (the latter doesn't always match the former, ultimately people play by their own rules, not what we pontificate frequently, is what "makes sense" as general WW strategy). And a big one, does the response, even if weird, seem genuine?

I understand some of what it is about my play that seems wolfy. I've tried, and think I have, improved somewhat. But some of it is just me and isn't likely to go away, sadly.
In someone that hasn't proven that's just the *special* sort of headcase they are, I have to wonder if they are for real.

It's wofly if it isn't genuine.
 
Crayola227 said:
Like many, I go by if the behavior seems within that person's norm or makes sense for that person given the circumstances and what we know in the game. Is it logical for WW, is it logical for their style of play? (the latter doesn't always match the former, ultimately people play by their own rules, not what we pontificate frequently, is what "makes sense" as general WW strategy). And a big one, does the response, even if weird, seem genuine?

I understand some of what it is about my play that seems wolfy. I've tried, and think I have, improved somewhat. But some of it is just me and isn't likely to go away, sadly.
In someone that hasn't proven that's just the *special* sort of headcase they are, I have to wonder if they are for real.

It's wofly if it isn't genuine.
Click to expand...
So does that mean you don't think Ny is genuine? Because literally everyone has said she is. WHAT IS THE PROBLEM HERE?
 
Lest you forget, @WildZoo -- you are still on that "lynch before end game" list as well.

Thought it was kinda weird you stayed off of youngkal yesterday and I'm still seeing a lot of mechanics posts from you.

You & cray are probably in the same spot in my list now that I think about it: very very slight village as of now, but lynch in a couple turns if additional wolves have not been found.
 
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