My suspicion is that SDN is just an inaccurate representation. The FB group currently has 206 members with previous years having around 240-250. Assuming that the number of faculty/alumni remain consistent year on year and have already joined, that means that there are likely in the realm of 30-40 spots left to fill. No doubt some of those are people who have been given an offer and haven't joined the group yet and some may choose another school and leave the group, but it gives you a rough picture of the state of admissions.
Also for those curious, it's unknowable exactly what the probability of acceptance is at this point since while we know the yield is roughly 55-60% (~70% admissions of ~370 II receive acceptances for 144 seats), we don't know how that varies from waitlist vs regular admissions. However, if you make the assumption that those numbers stay consistent, we would be looking at roughly 50% +/- 5% (50% of II go to WL according to admissions so (35 spots / 0.55 yield rate) / (185 - 36 (recently admitted according to FB page) / 0.55 yield rate)).
Note: the fb group is also an inaccurate picture as well, but it's all we have to go off of 🙁