Nor'east Ski WWeekend (Basics) - Game Thread

[Animal Midwife]

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Lynch Mel because I'm not feeling coffee

lol

 

[Animal Midwife]

I feel like I owe the dead looking into their posts and investigating (I feel like no one did this when I died and it made me sad)

Right so:
- mutts suggested we visit this mountain -> could this mean she was trying to shoot someone and it backfired somehow?
- the tossing aside bit has me at least a little assured this won't happen again...

Another thought I have is maybe the wolves also utilized bark's power to jail mutts. It's hard to say because mutts claimed jailing around 5 PM and barks wasn't back on after this. However, Barks was suspicious of mutts. She voted to Lynch her yesterday. If I was a jailer who jailed someone when 2 NKs occurred, I don't think I would be as suspicious of them like she was.

It also makes me sus of Mel that she voted to Lynch him and then ended up dead. But I am not sure if that is what the wolves want me to think or if Mel is actually a wolf.

Who's she is the bolded? And I always look into the dead's posts.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Unlynch coffee
Lynch Mel

Anyone wanna switch to coffee with me?

@SportPonies
Yo can we get an actual read, you've been voting based on tone analysis and I'd like something more concrete out of you.

It was like one or two posts before that. Same one as my initial vote.

Alright, I also have some more spicy analysis for you

Last night, I asked if anyone wanted to switch to coffee with me (I didn't want to make a tie). Dubs, Mel, Sporty, and SOV were all online and not voting for coffee and no one agreed to switch.

What I also find very interesting is that Sporty has been repeatedly voting for coffee over and over, but as soon as capri starts to be suspicious of her, she switches her vote and doesn't consider lynching coffee. This strikes me as very weird. Mel voted to Lynch sporty and sporty voted to Lynch Mel. Wondering if w/w to save coffee? I am not sure what to make of it... a sporty, Mel, coffee pack. Hm...Thoughts??

 

[Animal Midwife]

a sporty, Mel, coffee pack. Hm...Thoughts??

no

 

[Mad Jack]

Alright, I also have some more spicy analysis for you

Last night, I asked if anyone wanted to switch to coffee with me (I didn't want to make a tie). Dubs, Mel, Sporty, and SOV were all online and not voting for coffee and no one agreed to switch.

What I also find very interesting is that Sporty has been repeatedly voting for coffee over and over, but as soon as capri starts to be suspicious of her, she switches her vote and doesn't consider lynching coffee. This strikes me as very weird. Mel voted to Lynch sporty and sporty voted to Lynch Mel. Wondering if w/w to save coffee? I am not sure what to make of it... a sporty, Mel, coffee pack. Hm...Thoughts??

I say we kill them all but sporty last

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Who's she is the bolded? And I always look into the dead's posts.

She is barks.
Barks was suspicious of mutts and voted to Lynch her, the same day that mutts said she was jailed the night prior. If she was jailed, barks would've known she couldn't have done either of the 2 NKs. Obviously doesn't mean she could've cleared her, but it would be pretty low probability to jail the one wolf not doing a kill.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

no

Right so you ever going to post what you think or just shoot other people's ideas down?

You've been slowly raising on my wolf-dar and I think others have expressed similar feelings also.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

I say we kill them all but sporty last

Sounds good.

but you mean Lynch... right?

 

[MSUcvmHOPE]

lynch Mel

Honestly this keeps bothering me. She posted this ~10 mins after her post about not having ISOed yet, then is killed almost right after.

This wouldn't be as concerning if there was ANY context in this post. But to throw just a Lynch and then be shot feels exceptionally important to me.
Especially if we are able to utilize the context of the write up.

Could be nothing. Or everything.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Honestly this keeps bothering me. She posted this ~10 mins after her post about not having ISOed yet, then is killed almost right after.

This wouldn't be as concerning if there was ANY context in this post. But to throw just a Lynch and then be shot feels exceptionally important to me.
Especially if we are able to utilize the context of the write up.

Could be nothing. Or everything.

I'm inclined to agree

 

[Dinashadow]

Honestly this keeps bothering me. She posted this ~10 mins after her post about not having ISOed yet, then is killed almost right after.

This wouldn't be as concerning if there was ANY context in this post. But to throw just a Lynch and then be shot feels exceptionally important to me.
Especially if we are able to utilize the context of the write up.

Could be nothing. Or everything.

I think this is a good point but can also get very WIFOM-y too.

Did mutts post any reads of Mel today? Why would she just switch?

 

[Mad Jack]

Sounds good.

but you mean Lynch... right?

I say kill when I'm enjoying the deaths

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

I think this is a good point but can also get very WIFOM-y too.

Did mutts post any reads of Mel today? Why would she just switch?

Nope, I quoted her post from last night where her top suspects were me and killer. Then today voted to Lynch Mel, AM questioned her, and then she was dead next thing...

 

[Animal Midwife]

She is barks.
Barks was suspicious of mutts and voted to Lynch her, the same day that mutts said she was jailed the night prior. If she was jailed, barks would've known she couldn't have done either of the 2 NKs. Obviously doesn't mean she could've cleared her, but it would be pretty low probability to jail the one wolf not doing a kill.

It's not low probability actually. This mindset was part of the downfall in dubz family tree. The chance of jailing anyone but the wolf performing the kill was 94.74%.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

It's not low probability actually. This mindset was part of the downfall in dubz family tree. The chance of jailing anyone but the wolf performing the kill was 94.74%.

You're not interpreting me correctly.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Right so you ever going to post what you think or just shoot other people's ideas down?

You've been slowly raising on my wolf-dar and I think others have expressed similar feelings also.

I will always shoot down ideas that lead to more mislynches that are just going to piss me off. Post-game people wonder what went wrong, but I've seen the trends. Also, I've posted what I've thought and am doing so now.

 

[MSUcvmHOPE]

Nope, I quoted her post from last night where her top suspects were me and killer. Then today voted to Lynch Mel, AM questioned her, and then she was dead next thing...

Yeah that's what's weird to me, cause she was even on the Capri Lynch so I don't know what to think of her votes. I didn't really search it but that sudden change and death is setting off red flags still though.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using SDN mobile

 

[jaboo]

*~*~*
Hey gang, it’s ya girl jbooze. All the other mods have real life things tonight so I’m closing.

I’m also just starting my glass of wine so buckle up!

Also pls no last minute waffles
*~*~*

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

I will always shoot down ideas that lead to more mislynches that are just going to piss me off. Post-game people wonder what went wrong, but I've seen the trends. Also, I've posted what I've thought and am doing so now.

So who is in coffee's wolf pack then?

 

[Animal Midwife]

You're not interpreting me correctly.

What am I misinterpreting?

 

[Animal Midwife]

So who is in coffee's wolf pack then?

Let's look at the VCA afterwords. SOV still looks great to me personally.

 

[MSUcvmHOPE]

@Animal Midwife what are your thoughts on reading into the write-up, I know early on you were hoping to find something useful in them, what are your thoughts now that we have seen a few?

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Yeah that's what's weird to me, cause she was even on the Capri Lynch so I don't know what to think of her votes. I didn't really search it but that sudden change and death is setting off red flags still though.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using SDN mobile

Yeah, I wonder if it was a "shot backfire" kind of thing, if she tried to shoot coffee or Mel. Or someone else? But that's getting really speculative

 

[Animal Midwife]

@Animal Midwife what are your thoughts on reading into the write-up, I know early on you were hoping to find something useful in them, what are your thoughts now that we have seen a few?

I've seen nothing of use to me thus far.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

@ziggyandjazzy @Animal Midwife i said what I said for a reason and did not elaborate for a reason. Choose to do with that what you will.

For now I'd still like to lynch Mel
while I think things through more

You've been thinking things through a while

 

[SportPonies]

Alright, I also have some more spicy analysis for you

Last night, I asked if anyone wanted to switch to coffee with me (I didn't want to make a tie). Dubs, Mel, Sporty, and SOV were all online and not voting for coffee and no one agreed to switch.

What I also find very interesting is that Sporty has been repeatedly voting for coffee over and over, but as soon as capri starts to be suspicious of her, she switches her vote and doesn't consider lynching coffee. This strikes me as very weird. Mel voted to Lynch sporty and sporty voted to Lynch Mel. Wondering if w/w to save coffee? I am not sure what to make of it... a sporty, Mel, coffee pack. Hm...Thoughts??

Kind of started thinking someone would point that out.

I’m still fine seeing a coffee lynch but that’s based off my early game feels of her. I’m just happier with a Mel lynch right now because he became my strongest wolf read

Edit: also, honestly flip-flopping and trying to decide if this sounds coached

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Kind of started thinking someone would point that out.

I’m still fine seeing a coffee lynch but that’s based off my early game feels of her. I’m just happier with a Mel lynch right now because he became my strongest wolf read

Edit: also, honestly flip-flopping and trying to decide if this sounds coached

You think my post was coached?

Holy **** I was about to be like "woohoo someone thinks I have a hot take" now I am just like "wow people think I am so bad at this game that I could literally never come up with a good idea on my own"
🤔

 

[MSUcvmHOPE]

Yeah the whole timing of it is just weird to me on top of not wanting to Not look into something like a sudden death, but I don't want to be tin foiling off the rails either.

Right now I'm trying to look into Coffee and Mel, as well as see if I can put anything together through voting tallies around those two.
I'm going to look into more tomorrow morning since I have the morning off and post updated reads/feels on others at that time.

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Hmm maybe since I had a good idea now I can have a bad idea

what if the wolves took mutts ability somehow, used it to kill her because they have a wolf that can only die that way (like unlynchable)? Hmmm... much speculation

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

I wonder how much stagg is cursing at me from tot chat...

 

[Melchizedek]

ooooo like an ability thief?

Hmm maybe since I had a good idea now I can have a bad idea

what if the wolves took mutts ability somehow, used it to kill her because they have a wolf that can only die that way (like unlynchable)? Hmmm... much speculation

ooooo like an ability thief?


wait....is there an echo in here?

 

[MSUcvmHOPE]

Hmm maybe since I had a good idea now I can have a bad idea

what if the wolves took mutts ability somehow, used it to kill her because they have a wolf that can only die that way (like unlynchable)? Hmmm... much speculation

Wouldn't that mean we'd have lost then?

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

ooooo like an ability thief?


wait....is there an echo in here?

Uh I didn't know what that meant, hence me asking.

And I posted this AFTER the write up had been written and was drawing clues from there, not your post but you can still pat yourself on the back

You think they could've taken barks' ability to jail mutts?

Wouldn't that mean we'd have lost then?

aren't unlynchables lynchable after all other wolves have been lynched? not sure how mechanics work really

 

[Animal Midwife]

aren't unlynchables lynchable after all other wolves have been lynched? not sure how mechanics work really

Yes.

 

[Dinashadow]

Wouldn't that mean we'd have lost then?

I don't think mods would have made mechanics to allow something like this to happen. At least that's what I would like to think.....

 

[MSUcvmHOPE]

Yes.

Ah right. should've remembered that.

 

[PippyPony]

Day 4 Hey You, No Sledding on the Groomed Trails! Lynch Tally

Coffee? (7) - AM, Dina, zigzag, SAR, killer, dolphin, MSU
Sporty (1) - Cray
Mel (4) - Sporty, skim, coffee, MJ
mutts () -
Skim (1) - dubz
MSU (1) - SOV
SOV (1) - Mel

15/15 voting 🙂
Coffeebean, you're in the lead!

Lynch close at 10pm Eastern (25 min)

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Mutts was a little all over the place on genny but I think overall she was leaning genny village, and after genny was shot she agreed with WZ about the shot being a wolf shot. So I'm thinking she didn't use her shot which means the wolves had two shots so far. I'm inclined to think there might be one more shot to watch for...

Mutts was an "assassin" and as far as I know, assassin kills aren't restricted by day or night cycle. If not two wolf shots, do you have a theory on genny's shot and now mutts' shot?

ETA: I'm saying what if there's a x3 wolf assassin that isn't restricted by day or night. From a mod perspective, depending on if village was given some strong PR's, I could see an underpowered wolf pack with three extra kills.

Ok so thinking about it, I think it's a possibility the ability thief may have used it on mutts twice, once to kill genny, the other to kill mutts. The gun was "tossed away" or whatever this time. I think this means they don't have any more shots, likely because they killed mutts with it. They also may have used it on mutts right after she voted to lynch Mel to make Mel look bad.

 

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

OMG
GUYS
I WAS TRYING TO BE SUBTLE
Nobody picked up on my hints.

Yes, I was alone with my thoughts, thinking when was the best time to switch to a confirmed wolf, either out myself today or try to steer it tomorrow without giving away? But instead you're lynching me

VILLAGE SEER HERE
Ziggy is a wolf

Unlynch Mel
Lynch Ziggy

 

[Animal Midwife]

OMG
GUYS
I WAS TRYING TO BE SUBTLE
Nobody picked up on my hints.

Yes, I was alone with my thoughts, thinking when was the best time to switch to a confirmed wolf, either out myself today or try to steer it tomorrow without giving away?

VILLAGE SEER HERE
Ziggy is a wolf

Unlynch Mel
Lynch Ziggy

zzzzz

 

[Melchizedek]

Ok so thinking about it, I think it's a possibility the ability thief may have used it on mutts twice, once to kill genny, the other to kill mutts. The gun was "tossed away" or whatever this time. I think this means they don't have any more shots, likely because they killed mutts with it. They also may have used it on mutts right after she voted to lynch Mel to make Mel look bad.

typically if its a 1x shot and the wolves stole it and used it, it would have been used up specifically to avoid them continuously stealing it and having unlimited kills.

 

[Melchizedek]

Well ****, thats 2 for two on finding a wolf D1.

Unlynch SOV
Lynch ZJ

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

typically if its a 1x shot and the wolves stole it and used it, it would have been used up specifically to avoid them continuously stealing it and having unlimited kills.

Hm, how do you imagine the two kills happened then?

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

OMG
GUYS
I WAS TRYING TO BE SUBTLE
Nobody picked up on my hints.

Yes, I was alone with my thoughts, thinking when was the best time to switch to a confirmed wolf, either out myself today or try to steer it tomorrow without giving away? But instead you're lynching me

VILLAGE SEER HERE
Ziggy is a wolf

Unlynch Mel
Lynch Ziggy

LOL nice try

 

[Animal Midwife]

Well ****, thats 2 for two on finding a wolf D1.

Unlynch SOV
Lynch ZJ

Really Mel?

 

[MSUcvmHOPE]

OMG
GUYS
I WAS TRYING TO BE SUBTLE
Nobody picked up on my hints.

Yes, I was alone with my thoughts, thinking when was the best time to switch to a confirmed wolf, either out myself today or try to steer it tomorrow without giving away? But instead you're lynching me

VILLAGE SEER HERE
Ziggy is a wolf

Unlynch Mel
Lynch Ziggy

Over the past 3 days have you only seered Ziggs? Are there villagers you'd like to confirm?

 

[ziggyandjazzy]

Well ****, thats 2 for two on finding a wolf D1.

Unlynch SOV
Lynch ZJ

That's not a good idea

 

[PippyPony]

Day 4 Hey You, No Sledding on the Groomed Trails! Lynch Tally

Coffee? (7) - AM, Dina, zigzag, SAR, killer, dolphin, MSU
Sporty (1) - Cray
Mel (3) - Sporty, skim MJ
mutts () -
Skim (1) - dubz
MSU (1) - SOV
SOV () -
Ziggy (2) - coffee, Mel

15/15 voting 🙂
Coffeebean, you're in the lead!

Lynch close at 10pm Eastern (15 min)

 

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

Over the past 3 days have you only seered Ziggs? Are there villagers you'd like to confirm?

YES. I seered Barkley N1 and SOV N2. Why do you think I was defending him so hard yesterday?

 

[CoffeeQuestionMark]

LOL nice try

That's a great compliment coming from a wolf.