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if only 8-10 spots are available, then after HP, even group 1 people have no chance?
if only 8-10 spots are available, then after HP, even group 1 people have no chance?
Tough for me to do, because Yale is my DREAM School, but UCSF is better in every way hands down..... Its just that I grew up dreaming of yale...
Anyway, I withdraw : njcaldwell (Group 1)
[/quote]**PLEASE UPDATE if you know your tier**
High priority waitlist
Nyx1622 (3/24)
Regular waitlist
Group 1
ehegi (5/31)
rapidprotocol
MadSong
dantt (03/26)
Group 2
Andando (03/26)
ltrain (03/24)
creative11 (3/23)
babel (3/24)
palmStreet (5/30 - solid/upper half)
cucumber (5/30)
CrimsOnMama (5/30)
somerandomename (5/30)
jiayou
Gabujabu
Group 3
JohnnyDrama (3/26 - [high])
uclaRM (5/31) [high]
lolagene (03/26) high
orangescape (3/24)
FujiApple (3/26)
4paw (3/26, dated 3/23)
Group ?
gonviper (03/24)
docjg17 (03/24)
CubanDoc (3/26)
Yehosh (3/26)
i'm the map (3/26)
esdp85(3/24)
Homer Simpson (3/24)
LaDAndouna (3/26)
WhyIsThisSoHard (3/26)
Zellybelly (3/27)
jdm34721 (3/23)
TheAsianBullet (3/23)
Allie1984 (3/28)
444 (3/23)
Prizzi (3/25)
eekonomics (3/25)
e12345r (3/23)
Withdraw from waitlist (indicate which tier)
fotografia (4/09, tier unknown, not HP)
guoj
cgscribe (group 2)
njcaldwell (3/29, group 1)
nidigo (gr 3)
Acceptance from waitlist (indicate which tier)
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Tough for me to do, because Yale is my DREAM School, but UCSF is better in every way hands down..... Its just that I grew up dreaming of yale...
Anyway, I withdraw : njcaldwell (Group 1)
hey guys,
I read several of previous year's Yale waitlist threads and have some notes that you all might find helpful.
Post from 2004 that provides the bounds for waitlist movement
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no, i didn't ask. he did elaborate on the numbers of the past two years:
entering 2003: 17 matriculating students from waitlist. lowest # ever in history of YSM. extended "partially" into second tier.
entering 2002: 49 matriculating students from waitlist. highest # ever in history of YSM. extended "deep" into third tier.
RS never mentioned a highly secretive super tier 1. for a class of 100, it seems highly variable and unpredictable. let's hope the years alternate so we can get in =)
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Summary of previous years
Taking these two years as the bounds. It looks like that everyone on group 1 is safe and top of group 2 has a decent shot. If movement picks up in the next two weeks as it did in 2005, group 3 has a shot as well. In 2005 there was almost no movement up until May 15th and then some slow movement and then in early June there was steady movement resulting in all of groups 1 and 2 getting offers and some of group 3 by the end of thte summer.
Last Year
This time last year they finished high waitlisters and were into group 1. By mid june they had started taking people off group 2. I don't know about group 3 because the posts stopped in mid July, but I read on this thread that they got to group 3 by the end of the summer.
Major points:
high waitlisters & goup 1 - your pretty much in. All that needs to happen is some time to pass. Precedent says you guys will get in.
group 2 - there will be some group 2 movement. If it's a good year, all of group 2. If it's a bad year only the top part.
group 3 - now this is group is the unknown group. Based on how it's going now, it doesn't look probable. Then again, I read through several of the past year's threads, which provides precedent for sudden, fast movement at the end of June, which would give you all a chance.
What to look for in the coming weeks
What you can do
- There needs to be movement in group 1 by mid June. If there is not and most of group 1 does not have offers by the end of the June it will be hard for all of group 2 to have a shot. This is the key. If not then I only expect that Silverman will get through part of group 2 by the end of the summer. If we get group 2 movement by the end of June then group 3 has a good shot.
Disclaimer: This is all speculative. These approximations were made after reading 2004,2005, and 2006 Yale waitlist threads.
- As soon as the first group 1 and/or 2 person gets off the waitlist PLEASE POST. This will give us a guide to know if the rest have a chance
Good point.
However, looking at data from US News & World Reports for 2006 there were approx. 240 offers made. They extended into group 3 and started out with 176 intial offers of acceptance (64 total offers made to waitlisters). The 176 numbers comes from an article in the Yale's student newspaper. The link to this article I think is in the Yale 2007 coutdown thread. Do a search and you should find it.
In 2005 there were 220 total acceptances (US News & World Reports...I've had the rankings for the past 3 years and remember the numbers for Yale because, like everyone here, it's my dream school😀). I believe I heard RS say at my interview that on an average year they try to make "150 or so" initial offers. If we take this "150 or so" to be the median number of intial acceptances each year and apply it to the data known for 2005 we can say that approx. 60 to 70 waitlisters received offers in 2005 (220 total minus 150 initial). In 2005 they extended into group 3. Now, of course I have NO WAY of knowing if in 2005 they made "150 or so" offers because (1) this is extremely vague and (2) what's to say they didn't deviate far from the median that year and make 100 initial offers or 200. This is the weak point in my analysis. This "60 to 70 offers to waitlisters" does fit with the data that we do know for 2006 with regards to the fact that both in 2005 and 2006 RS got to the top part of group 3 with 60 or so offers made to waitlisters. So, the moral here is that (a) 60 waitlist offers are needed for RS to get to group 3 and (b) the number of intial acceptances most likely will not greatly affect waitlisters chance because in 2005 vs. 2006 there were more initial acceptances in 2006 resulting in greater number of total offers made (240). Again, the reason that I am using the 150 or so number is because RS said it and the total number of waitlist offers in 2005 using the median number is approx. equal to the number of waitlist offers in 2006.
Again, this is speculation based on numbers from US News & World reports, RS own words during my interview, and information from threads on SDN. I think the analysis I did earliear is better because it uses hard numbers. Here I had to rely on approx. numbers without standard deviation data, making the conclusions less reliable.
Good point.
However, looking at data from US News & World Reports for 2006 there were approx. 240 offers made. They extended into group 3 and started out with 176 intial offers of acceptance (64 total offers made to waitlisters). The 176 numbers comes from an article in the Yale's student newspaper. The link to this article I think is in the Yale 2007 coutdown thread. Do a search and you should find it.
In 2005 there were 220 total acceptances (US News & World Reports...I've had the rankings for the past 3 years and remember the numbers for Yale because, like everyone here, it's my dream school😀). I believe I heard RS say at my interview that on an average year they try to make "150 or so" initial offers. If we take this "150 or so" to be the median number of intial acceptances each year and apply it to the data known for 2005 we can say that approx. 60 to 70 waitlisters received offers in 2005 (220 total minus 150 initial). In 2005 they extended into group 3. Now, of course I have NO WAY of knowing if in 2005 they made "150 or so" offers because (1) this is extremely vague and (2) what's to say they didn't deviate far from the median that year and make 100 initial offers or 200. This is the weak point in my analysis. This "60 to 70 offers to waitlisters" does fit with the data that we do know for 2006 with regards to the fact that both in 2005 and 2006 RS got to the top part of group 3 with 60 or so offers made to waitlisters. So, the moral here is that (a) 60 waitlist offers are needed for RS to get to group 3 and (b) the number of intial acceptances most likely will not greatly affect waitlisters chance because in 2005 vs. 2006 there were more initial acceptances in 2006 resulting in greater number of total offers made (240). Again, the reason that I am using the 150 or so number is because RS said it and the total number of waitlist offers in 2005 using the median number is approx. equal to the number of waitlist offers in 2006.
Again, this is speculation based on numbers from US News & World reports, RS own words during my interview, and information from threads on SDN. I think the analysis I did earliear is better because it uses hard numbers. Here I had to rely on approx. numbers without standard deviation data, making the conclusions less reliable.
This is prob too early, but any news today?
PS
Hey all,
In the process of trying to determine who my yale mstp classmates will be, i came across a tidbit of information: a friend of a friend was very recently let off the waitlist regular-MD at yale and has until monday to decide. so the list IS moving.
all
Tx for the info! Do you know what group your friend's friend was in and if he/she is accepting?
Great to hear the waitlist is moving! I'm betting it's high waitlister or top of group 1. Either way it's great news!!
doesnt above average mean that few people are accepted? maybe I heard RS wrong. Id better get this straight 😳
nope, but i can ask later
Anyone talk to RS today?
Apparently he's not available today. First-time callers can speak to the assistant director, Barbara Watts, but she doesn't have any new information. (And no, I'm not a psycho-caller -- I was told to call back this week 😉)