They said at the interview that about 1/4 of the available acceptance spaces are given out per notification date, which makes sense given that there are four dates: October 15, December 15, February 1 and March 15. I think they accept around 400 people total in order to eventually fill a class of 184 people. So I think about 100 people must get accepted per notification date.
They interview around 750 applicants each year, so if they are equally divided throughout the interview season, about 188 people are interviewed between each notification date and 100 people are offered admission. Slightly over 50% of interviewed applicants get accepted overall and out of that number, about 55% are IS and 45% are OOS, so I guess about 55 IS and 45 OOS applicants are accepted per notification wave. However, since there are thousands of OOS applicants and many fewer IS applicants, the overall percentage of OOS applicants that get accepted is very low when compared to IS applicants.
After October 15, I think it gets more complicated to predict acceptances from each pool because the people who weren't offered acceptance in the first round still remain on the list, which is organized by priority score. So if the first group happened to have particularly good applicants while the next group happened to have worse applicants, people from the first group would still be accepted at the second notification date and so on. It could also be confounded by whether they interview more in-state applicants early in the season and more out-of-state applicants later in the season.
I don't really know how to predict, because according to the admissions dean, they simply organize the list by priority score and take the desired number of people from the top of the list down. I'm not sure if there are separate IS and OOS lists or not and whether the IS/OOS factor is included in the priority score or not. If anyone has other ideas, feel free to chime in, but that's how I read it from the admissions website and what they said at the interview.
