Thanks for linking this - I tried to find my copy and was unable.
With that said, I can't totally recall but I want to say I remember reading a lot of discussion about why there was so much variation from the 2006-2011 year and I can't remember the answer everyone came up with but I believe there were some changes instituted by the AAMC and that explains the narrowing of the spread? Regardless, as much as I want to be eternally optimistic, and this is 100% just my opinion, if things go back to how they were and ignoring last year, I'd say that alternate <20 great chance of getting in, alternate 20-40 good chance, 40-50 ok chance, 50-60 possible but not probable, 60+ pretty unlikely. But I met someone in my class right around that 60+ range so things do happen. Again, just my opinion. I don't want to be a downer, and everything I said could be totally wrong depending on how the cycle shakes out, but at the same time I think it's somewhat important to recognize the odds just so those who may not be looking at an acceptance this year can start working on getting things ready for reapplying. And I know I've said it before a few times but I applied multiple times and barely made it in on my final attempt and it's not a statement of who you are. You'll all make fantastic docs I'm sure. Getting into med school is the hard part and is a crapshoot.