I didn't realize that Michigan had a tracker on their website but just saw it on another SDN thread.
So looking at it right now it shows they have had 11,159 applicants this year with 341 interviews scheduled to date and 50 admission offers made.
MSARS shows that for the Y2024 cycle they had 9338 applicants, they interviewed 443 and had 171 matriculants.
- 1821 more applicants is a 19.5% increase in just 2 years! Crazy.
- They're already close to their total interviews back then. Assuming they also interview roughly 20% more applicants, that would mean they still have 189 more interviews to go.
- Making a wild guess of 70% yield rate, that would mean they made 244 offers back then to get their 171 matriculants. That would have been a 55% post-II -> A rate. Assuming the same 244 offers now but 530 interviews, it would drop that rate to 46%.
Anyway, I'm sure I have some math wrong somewhere but the basic idea is there is still a chance but it's harder than ever.