Scientifically Silly WW Game Thread

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Animal Midwife said:
In case it was missed in the mutterings of last night, there will be no voting until everyone claims. Discussion in general is still allowed and encouraged.
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Sooooo

Not to be a buzzkill when shenanigans are on the table, but is this still a good idea? I'm kind of thinking maybe it is not cost effective enough anymore
 
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PippyPony said:
Sooooo

Not to be a buzzkill when shenanigans are on the table, but is this still a good idea? I'm kind of thinking maybe it is not cost effective enough anymore
Click to expand...

I think it's an excellent idea still.
 
PippyPony said:
Can you explain your reasoning?

And can you also explain why you are sad about Cheezit dying? (Other than the obvious. I mean from a strategic standpoint.)
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We're forever at the point that one wrong vote will end the game, so it's not worth any risky read gambits imo. Having everything on the table will reduce the chances of that happening.

I'm sad because he was part of my plan and died.
 
Animal Midwife said:
We're forever at the point that one wrong vote will end the game, so it's not worth any risky read gambits imo. Having everything on the table will reduce the chances of that happening.

I'm sad because he was part of my plan and died.
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Yes, I understand that it is lylo.

Why do you think we would be relying only on reads?

And what do you mean he was part of the plan? Is it not more useful that he is a confirmed PR?
 
I'm going to be at orientation today but am planning on still checking in intermittently. If you need me please tag me
 
PippyPony said:
Yes, I understand that it is lylo.

Why do you think we would be relying only on reads?

And what do you mean he was part of the plan? Is it not more useful that he is a confirmed PR?
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Because people tend to do that.

I mean he was part of the plan. It's great that he is a confirmed PR, but he's also dead, unfortunately.
 
PippyPony said:
:confused:

Why are you acting like there is no info? I feel like you are stuck on this, and I don't really know what to make of it
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Where's the info then? I'm not stuck on anything. I'm merely making it easier for us to solve this.
 
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PippyPony said:
Not my place to say, I don't think. And imo, this is getting more anti-village the more it gets pushed at this point in time.
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Actually, it's the most pro-village action possible.
 
Animal Midwife said:
Except that it has saved many villages before that had slim chances of success before. Don't you want to see f3?
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I don't know what f3 is

Look, I'm not saying this is never a good option. Just that at this particular point in the cycle, my feeling is that it is statistically not the smartest thing to do. Maybe I'm being dumb, but that's just how I feel about it.

But outside of me disagreeing with you, the fact that you won't even acknowledge other possible opinions is making me side-eye you a bit. While simultaneously making me feel better about you, because I don't see you doing STL-type crap as a wolf. More Cheezit's style than yours. But also weirded out, because why are you being obtuse all of a sudden. So basically, like...staaahp with the weird.
 
Regardless, I'm going to be driving for the next 3 hours-ish, and this time am going to try to be a little better with the road safety stuff. Don't miss me too much ;)
 
PippyPony said:
I don't know what f3 is

Look, I'm not saying this is never a good option. Just that at this particular point in the cycle, my feeling is that it is statistically not the smartest thing to do. Maybe I'm being dumb, but that's just how I feel about it.

But outside of me disagreeing with you, the fact that you won't even acknowledge other possible opinions is making me side-eye you a bit. While simultaneously making me feel better about you, because I don't see you doing STL-type crap as a wolf. More Cheezit's style than yours. But also weirded out, because why are you being obtuse all of a sudden. So basically, like...staaahp with the weird.
Click to expand...

f3 is final 3 (two villagers and a wolf).

I'm sorry, but massclaiming is the one of the only ways to win at this point. Then the game can be mechanically locked. Why shouldn't it happen?

PippyPony said:
Regardless, I'm going to be driving for the next 3 hours-ish, and this time am going to try to be a little better with the road safety stuff. Don't miss me too much ;)
Click to expand...

I miss you already...
 
Also, can I just say how much I appreciate how the most recent lylos have been on a Monday when I'm more inactive. Like wtf?
 
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I do not like the mass claiming idea at all. I feel we are still just as likely to lynch a villager vs not claiming. And if we do lynch a wolf, any PRs left will be exposed and likely killed overnight leaving us in the same situation tomorrow.

I have been reading AM village all game, but this is making me side eye her kinda hard. Unlike pip, I do think AM is capable of pulling this kind of move on lylo as a wolf. I don’t feel it’s ever appropriate to put PRs unless absolutely necessary.

I’ve seen this suggested in other games, and it’s always been rejected by veteran players. Where is DVMD when I need her?
 
Skimble said:
I do not like the mass claiming idea at all. I feel we are still just as likely to lynch a villager vs not claiming. And if we do lynch a wolf, any PRs left will be exposed and likely killed overnight leaving us in the same situation tomorrow.

I have been reading AM village all game, but this is making me side eye her kinda hard. Unlike pip, I do think AM is capable of pulling this kind of move on lylo as a wolf. I don’t feel it’s ever appropriate to put PRs unless absolutely necessary.

I’ve seen this suggested in other games, and it’s always been rejected by veteran players. Where is DVMD when I need her?
Click to expand...

Can you tell me why you think the likelihood of lynching a villager is the same? And why exactly is that a bad thing if the risk is the same but with greater reward?

It's going to be lylo tomorrow if successful regardless, so that's kinda what we're going for.

What do you consider necessary if not a lynch-or-lose situation where one vote can lead to wolves instantly hammering?
 
I’m not going to pretend to understand all the ins and outs of everyone claiming being a newer player. However how is it not at least a decent idea? There is a real possibility we lynch another villager and the game’s over anyways. So I feel there can/should be some discussion over it but idk why anyone would be outright opposed to it. Unless you’re a wolf obviously. But again, take my opinion with a grain of salt bc I’m sure more veteran players may have different thoughts or perspectives about it.
 
Hokay. So looking at the list of possible combos, here are the potential set ups at the beginning of the game:

"In total, there are 9 possible setups:
  • A1: Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker vs. Town Cop, Town Neapolitan, 5x Town Vanilla
  • A2: Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker vs. Town Jailkeeper, Town Doctor, 5x Town Vanilla
  • A3: Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker vs. Town Doctor, Town Cop, 5x Town Vanilla
  • B1: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Cop, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla
  • B2: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla
  • B3: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Doctor, Town Neapolitan, 5x Town Vanilla
  • C1: Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon vs. Town Cop, 6x Town Vanilla
  • C2: Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon vs. Town Jailkeeper, 6x Town Vanilla
  • C3: Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon vs. Town Doctor, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla"

Woofs did us all a favor last night by getting panicky and killing Cheezit, because tracker only appears in 3 of these 9 setups! Huzzah.

So, our list of possible role sets has been reduced by 2/3. Ooooops wolfies, may have wanted to think that one through a bit more.

Here are the remaining viable setups:
  • B1: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Cop, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla
  • B2: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla
  • C3: Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon vs. Town Doctor, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla

We good so far? (I am going to be doing this in stages because my carpal tunnel stuff is incredibly ouch today, so apologies for being slow :hungover:)
 
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PippyPony said:
Hokay. So looking at the list of possible combos, here are the potential set ups at the beginning of the game:

"In total, there are 9 possible setups:
  • A1: Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker vs. Town Cop, Town Neapolitan, 5x Town Vanilla
  • A2: Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker vs. Town Jailkeeper, Town Doctor, 5x Town Vanilla
  • A3: Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker vs. Town Doctor, Town Cop, 5x Town Vanilla
  • B1: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Cop, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla
  • B2: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla
  • B3: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Doctor, Town Neapolitan, 5x Town Vanilla
  • C1: Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon vs. Town Cop, 6x Town Vanilla
  • C2: Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon vs. Town Jailkeeper, 6x Town Vanilla
  • C3: Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon vs. Town Doctor, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla"

Woofs did us all a favor last night by getting panicky and killing Cheezit, because tracker only appears in 3 of these 9 setups! Huzzah.

So, our list of possible role sets has been reduced by 2/3. Ooooops wolfies, may have wanted to think that one through a bit more.

Here are the remaining viable setups:
  • B1: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Cop, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla
  • B2: Mafia Goon, Mafia Rolecop vs. Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla
  • C3: Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon vs. Town Doctor, Town Tracker, 5x Town Vanilla

We good so far? (I am going to be doing this in stages because my carpal tunnel stuff is incredibly ouch today, so apologies for being slow :hungover:)
Click to expand...

To be fair, any PR kill that wasn't neapolitan (impossible) or seer would have still narrowed it down to three options.
 
Reviewing the info that we currently have...

We have had 3 vanillagers die, and 1 village PR, leaving 5 living players. That means that regardless of the actual setups at work here, the 3 remaining setups can be further simplified to the following 2:

2 wolves (1 vanilla, 1 rolecop) vs. 3 villagers (1 power role, 2x vanillagers)

OR

2 wolves (2 vanilla) vs. 3 villagers (1 power role, 2x vanillagers)

We also know that Mel tracked SkimbleJil and presumably saw her visiting Coffeebean, because of the following posts:

Melchizedek said:
Unlynch AM
Lynch Coffee?

~Reasons~

Unless Skimble comes on thread and says otherwise.
Click to expand...

And Coffeebean survived the night visit to be lynched the next day.

This means that Skil is someone who is capable of visiting another player at night. So, she is either a village power role, or a wolf rolecop.

Everyone still on the same page about actual facts?
 
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Another interesting tidbit of information is this post from Cheezit:

Melchizedek said:
Ayo, really not thinking Skim is a good lynch
Click to expand...

Looks like he also did some math, and figured out that it was statistically more likely for Skil to be a village power role than a wolf role cop. What a good little med student. Narrowing down his differentials already.

And all 3 of those potential village PRs (affiliation seer, jailer, protector) are quite valuable to still have in play at end game. I would argue that protector is the best out of the 3, but maybe that's just me.
 
PippyPony said:
Another interesting tidbit of information is this post from Cheezit:



Looks like he also did some math, and figured out that it was statistically more likely for Skil to be a village power role than a wolf role cop. What a good little med student. Narrowing down his differentials already.

And all 3 of those potential village PRs (affiliation seer, jailer, protector) are quite valuable to still have in play at end game. I would argue that protector is the best out of the 3, but maybe that's just me.
Click to expand...

Personally, I would rank powerfulness at this point in the game as protector < jailer < seer.

The seer, assuming every single one of their targets weren't killed/lynched, has clears alive at this point. The jailer can protect themselves if they stop the kill. The protector just dies if outted in any fashion. And if someone is the protector, there is no point in hiding it because wolves already know it exists and will auto kill any person portrayed as being one.
 
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Ok, onto some more subjective stuff:

- One thing that I also found interesting was that Skil was the leading candidate for much of yesterday. You would think, if she was a wolf power role, that her wolfy frand would not let that lead sit there. So, +1 subjective village point to her.

- Given that timing, plus the fact that it is more likely numbers-wise that Skil is the other village PR, I wanted to give her the opportunity to do her own revealing today before laying all of this out on the thread. Because if by chance the woofs didn't notice/didn't think through Cheezit's comments in relation to his role, and she was say, an affiliation seer, I think it would have been better to not draw so much attention to it. Which is one of the reasons why I was telling AM to shut up earlier. I also do understand her desire to keep her role quiet -- to a point.

- Howeverrrrrrr, when given the opportunity to weigh in, she
  1. Did not indicate she had seer results
  2. Posted this:
Skimble said:
I do not like the mass claiming idea at all. I feel we are still just as likely to lynch a villager vs not claiming. And if we do lynch a wolf, any PRs left will be exposed and likely killed overnight leaving us in the same situation tomorrow.

I have been reading AM village all game, but this is making me side eye her kinda hard. Unlike pip, I do think AM is capable of pulling this kind of move on lylo as a wolf. I don’t feel it’s ever appropriate to put PRs unless absolutely necessary.

I’ve seen this suggested in other games, and it’s always been rejected by veteran players. Where is DVMD when I need her?
Click to expand...

To be clear, I am not and have not been completely opposed to the role sharing thing. I was opposed to jumping the gun with it too early today, buuuuut given that I also think Jil's post reads as pretty damn sketchy, I am subtracting that +1 village point that I gave her for yesterday and don't feel too broken up about forcing her hand here.

All of this to say that I think it may be time to spill the science experiment beans
 
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Animal Midwife said:
Personally, I would rank powerfulness at this point in the game as protector < jailer < seer.

The seer, assuming every single one of their targets weren't killed/lynched, has clears alive at this point. The jailer can protect themselves if they stop the kill. The protector just dies if outted in any fashion. And if someone is the protector, there is no point in hiding it because wolves already know it exists and will auto kill any person portrayed as being one.
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I guess my take on it is that a protector would know they are village, and is therefore the only one who can maintain villager numbers. Which, if it gets to tomorrow, is useful because they can protect themselves and possibly stop a kill. Whereas jailer cannot protect themselves, and seer is squishy. So I guess I am looking more at which one can have a publicly visible impact vs individual information gathering. But I see what you're saying. Regardless -- would be good to try to keep them around, imo.
 
PippyPony said:
I guess my take on it is that a protector would know they are village, and is therefore the only one who can maintain villager numbers. Which, if it gets to tomorrow, is useful because they can protect themselves and possibly stop a kill. Whereas jailer cannot protect themselves, and seer is squishy. So I guess I am looking more at which one can have a publicly visible impact vs individual information gathering. But I see what you're saying. Regardless -- would be good to try to keep them around, imo.
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Protectors cannot always protect themselves though especially if we're following the mafiascum setup.

Can I ask why seer is squishy?
 
Animal Midwife said:
Can I ask why seer is squishy?
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Because unless seer targets are given results and there are enough living targets who can corroborate, it's basically just the word of the seer. I also kind of think of it as retroactive/soft info as opposed to proactive/hard info. Which may only make sense in my own head, and I'm not sure I can even really explain what I mean by those categorizations haha
 
PippyPony said:
Because unless seer targets are given results and there are enough living targets who can corroborate, it's basically just the word of the seer. I also kind of think of it as retroactive/soft info as opposed to proactive/hard info. Which may only make sense in my own head, and I'm not sure I can even really explain what I mean by those categorizations haha
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It's not the word of the seer in this situation though. If someone claims seer, and they aren't seer, then a counterclaim happens.

This is also assumes that people are getting results that they're targeted which I doubt.
 
Animal Midwife said:
It's not the word of the seer in this situation though. If someone claims seer, and they aren't seer, then a counterclaim happens.
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How is that not pitting two people's word against each other?

Unless you can somehow verify who the most-realest-of-real seer is, in which case you are the ability seer, and we should lynch you because that is a wolf role in these set ups ;)
 
PippyPony said:
How is that not pitting two people's word against each other?

Unless you can somehow verify who the most-realest-of-real seer is, in which case you are the ability seer, and we should lynch you because that is a wolf role in these set ups ;)
Click to expand...

I've seen it quite a bit as last resort wolf play. And there are fun ways to figure out the real one.
 
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