StardeWW Valley - GAME THREAD

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SportPonies said:
Wanna talk about the time Dubz was visiting me and she was wolf and I was village?

I don’t.
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Good because I don't want to talk about the time I was visiting you and you were wolf and I was village either!
 
So we have 10 hours until end of day.

Hunting priority:
1. Cult Leader
2. Wolf (we believe there's only one left)
3. Cultists

For the sake of sanity we need to assume that the cultists will not be able to propagate after we take out the leader. If they can, I don't think the game is winnable at this point.

My understanding is that the cult leader will have been engaged in proper wolf hunting; it is purely to their advantage to get rid of the wolves (and to have the town focused on wolves).
 
I'm very tired but @SportPonies this is me reminding myself to explain later why I think you sound like a villager locked in a tunnel, why me arguing with Bob makes me feel like this is village violence, and why that makes me want to look away from you and Dubz as scum factions. It is a distraction that will lose village the game. You're arguing like an uninformed majority. @Truenamer might want to look in and weigh in since I don't think he's a cult member yet and I know he is not a wolf.
 
Maybe we can combine that with the AM POE analysis from yesterday to make a more informed vote
 
7 players left.

Minimum 1 wolf and 1 Cult Leader. Maximum 2 wolves, 1 CL, and 2 Cultists. This feels unlikely but we need to keep it in mind (though the "we" becomes pretty small.)

I'm village, and my PR is unfortunately not helpful in regards to the Cult.

Of the remaining 6 players I currently feel best about

1. Stoat
2. Sporty
3. Dubz

For largely vibes/discussion/feels reasons, along with some reading into AM's last day (I am currently assuming she spent at least her last day as a cultist). I really wish I had better reasoning here but I've got nothing hard to work with.

4. I feel best about PSV after that trio but I don't have good reasoning for it (or if I did I've now forgotten). I believe her that she isn't a wolf but there is no reason she can't be cult.

5. Genny isn't a wolf. She could absolutely be a cultist. I really wish she'd post more. I know she's busy but there's been near radio-silence since the (what I felt to be) huge and dramatic revelation that there's been a hidden cult this entire game. The fact that that didn't shake her play up in any way doesn't make me feel great about her.

6. Barkley is my bet for wolf, which ironically means I don't think we should yeet her tonight. If we can catch the Cult Leader (and hopefully she or whoever else is the wolf eats a cultist) then awoo-hunting can be back on the menu tomorrow.

But my reads have been god-awful this game so what do I know 😀
 
I think I'm going to end up on PSV or genny tonight but I'd appreciate help and direction.
 
Truenamer said:
I think I'm going to end up on PSV or genny tonight but I'd appreciate help and direction.
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I would not exclude Barkley from being a cultist and I would not exclude Dubz from being a wolf, but for the purposes of today, I like your green people collection. They are also my green people collection, swapping in you for me.
 
Truenamer said:
7 players left.

Minimum 1 wolf and 1 Cult Leader. Maximum 2 wolves, 1 CL, and 2 Cultists. This feels unlikely but we need to keep it in mind (though the "we" becomes pretty small.)

I'm village, and my PR is unfortunately not helpful in regards to the Cult.

Of the remaining 6 players I currently feel best about

1. Stoat
2. Sporty
3. Dubz

For largely vibes/discussion/feels reasons, along with some reading into AM's last day (I am currently assuming she spent at least her last day as a cultist). I really wish I had better reasoning here but I've got nothing hard to work with.

4. I feel best about PSV after that trio but I don't have good reasoning for it (or if I did I've now forgotten). I believe her that she isn't a wolf but there is no reason she can't be cult.

5. Genny isn't a wolf. She could absolutely be a cultist. I really wish she'd post more. I know she's busy but there's been near radio-silence since the (what I felt to be) huge and dramatic revelation that there's been a hidden cult this entire game. The fact that that didn't shake her play up in any way doesn't make me feel great about her.

6. Barkley is my bet for wolf, which ironically means I don't think we should yeet her tonight. If we can catch the Cult Leader (and hopefully she or whoever else is the wolf eats a cultist) then awoo-hunting can be back on the menu tomorrow.

But my reads have been god-awful this game so what do I know 😀
Click to expand...
I'm basically vibing with this list which I guess you already know based on the POEs I posted earlier. I want to read back over PSV's posts today but idk if I'll have time.
 
What Came First? - D4 Tally

il_1588xN.2164767724_qies.jpg


Barky ()
genny (2) - PSV, stouty
Dubz ()
PSV (1) - DubZ


3/7 voting
@genny , you are winning.
Missing: @genny @Truenamer @SportPonies @Barkley13

Vote closes at 9pm EST (8pm CST/6pm fantasyland) on Wednesday, 2/9 (~7.75 hours)
 
Extremely jealous of cultists, they have it the easiest right now. Just have to yeet anyone other than a cultist, doesn't need to be the wolf (though of course that's best for them).
 
SportPonies said:
So I guess…. What’s the argument against PSV here? And is it any different than the minimal argument against stoat?

I’m welcome to hear it because I totally had the wool pulled over my eyes last game by her, but if the argument is on the same level, I’d favor voting stoat.

But you all know that 😅
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I think PSV is unlikely to be wolf but no reason that she can’t be cultist
 
Barkley13 said:
I think PSV is unlikely to be wolf but no reason that she can’t be cultist
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That is sort of the frustrating thing, there's no reason why basically any of us can't be cultists. The best clue we have are that the people in AM's last POE are less likely to be culty.
 
Truenamer said:
That is sort of the frustrating thing, there's no reason why basically any of us can't be cultists. The best clue we have are that the people in AM's last POE are less likely to be culty.
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This game has felt VERY villagey. And there's no great guide for hunting multiple factions that I've found, when I was googling for game theories that might help
 
What's the current math on how many misyeets we reasonably have? I've been at the shelter all morning and am too tired to try to figure it out.
 
Uh I legit don't even remember who all is still in the game. Stoat, true, sporty, dubz, genny, barks, me? I can attempt to make a reads list with that.
 
Let's see what we have as best and worst case scenarios here.
Worst case scenario: cult leader has been converting since N1. Cult leader and one regular cultist still in the game. Originally two wolves (I refuse to believe there were three wolves and a cult leader to start with since that just seems excessive), now one left. 4 villagers need to root out the two cultists and single wolf. Assuming cultist wincon is to convert all other players and they can convert every night, we have a single villager misyeet before the game essentially ends (for village purposes anyway).
Best case scenario: cult leader has only converted one player. Only cult leader is representing the cult. There's only one wolf. 5 villagers, 2 scum. Wolves kill one villager (or ideally the cult leader) tonight and we misyeet a villager, then there's probably 2 scum and 3 villagers left.
I'm struggling to make sense of this with my broken and sleepy brain but we're basically either at or extremely close to volo.
 
Like obviously I cannot talk you out of the tunnel you are in, and you still do not have good reasoning for it, so I'm not going to-- anti-village though that may be, you are welcome to your decisions. It is hard to not yeet you out of frustration, but your blindness to other options seems more village than a wolf trying to create a wagon. @SportPonies
 
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potentialsheltervet said:
Let's see what we have as best and worst case scenarios here.
Worst case scenario: cult leader has been converting since N1. Cult leader and one regular cultist still in the game. Originally two wolves (I refuse to believe there were three wolves and a cult leader to start with since that just seems excessive), now one left. 4 villagers need to root out the two cultists and single wolf. Assuming cultist wincon is to convert all other players and they can convert every night, we have a single villager misyeet before the game essentially ends (for village purposes anyway).
Best case scenario: cult leader has only converted one player. Only cult leader is representing the cult. There's only one wolf. 5 villagers, 2 scum. Wolves kill one villager (or ideally the cult leader) tonight and we misyeet a villager, then there's probably 2 scum and 3 villagers left.
I'm struggling to make sense of this with my broken and sleepy brain but we're basically either at or extremely close to volo.
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Depends on numbers which we don't know but math here
WildZoo said:
7 players

These are all predicated on one remaining wolf. Again, 3 wolves and a Cult Leader seems unlikely to me for a game this size, so I'm not considering it. Also leaning towards looking at worst case scenarios, of course there are others where the wolves kill the cult leader/cultist or recruitment fails or whatever.

If we misyeet, 4:1:1, risks losing a villager to wolf kill and to recruitment, making it 2:1:2 tomorrow, which is a fun situation because idk if wolf wincon necessitates getting rid of the Cult or just reaching parity with village.
If we yeet the wolf, then it would be potentially 4:2 tomorrow with successful recruitment.
If we yeet the Cult Leader, 4:1 tomorrow.
So in this scenario, we have some breathing room.

If we misyeet, a villager dies overnight, and another is recruited, 2:1:3 and cult wins
If we yeet the wolf and recruitment is successful, 3:3 and cult wins
If we yeet the Cult Leader and a villager dies overnight, 2:1:1 tomorrow or...something, idk what would happen to the Cultist
If we yeet the Cultist, a villager dies overnight, and successful recruitment, 2:1:2 tomorrow which is the same as scenario 1a

If we misyeet, Cult wins
If we yeet the wolf, Cult wins
If we yeet the Cult Leader and a villager dies overnight, 2:1:2 tomorrow, which is the same as scenario 1a.
If we yeet a Cultist, a villager dies overnight, and successful recruitment, 2:1:3, Cult wins.

Some things also depend on what happens to the Cultists if the Cult Leader dies...
I think these are correct.
Click to expand...
We either have no misyeet margin or maybe 1 if we're lucky
 
I can accept this without getting a peptic ulcer if it's because I give you cultist vibes @SportPonies but I will genuinely be offended if you think I'd wolf in such a hamhanded way
 
And yes, I am combining the bargaining and acceptance stages of rejected effort, where I am accepting that this is a dead-end conversation with someone who I think is village and who I know is not working in the village's interest.
 
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