WildZoo's WWildZoo- Game Thread

Veterinary Science Graduate Programs from U. of I.
This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
SummerTheLynx said:
**********lynch jolary*********** since if she can avoid talking, then she gets to skate by as a wolf. As a reward for intentionally ignoring us all last game, she will have me up her arse this game 🙂.
Click to expand...
I was actually legit busy the last game. Only one time did I purposefully avoid talking on thread so that we could set up the lynch vote in our favor.

I also somehow didn't see the first tag for this game and didn't know the game thread had been posted! And I went to bet at 9 last night because I was so tired.
LyraGardenia said:
Didn't @Jilary have that as her avatar for a while? If you mean the actual name of the cheetah, I have no idea. :laugh:
Click to expand...
I've had 2 cheetahs as avatars, both animated gifs, so not the pic caia currently has posted.

Speaking of animated gifs, anyone know how to make one from a video? I want to use Larry, the worlds most seductive otter!!
 
I don't like all the votes on Ny. I feel some of them are just retaliation from last game, and what are the chances she was RNG'd to a wolf role two games in a row? I know it happens, but it's pretty rare. I also know she can be hard to read, but I'd like to give her a chance before everyone bandwagons on her.
 
Jilary said:
I don't like all the votes on Ny. I feel some of them are just retaliation from last game, and what are the chances she was RNG'd to a wolf role two games in a row? I know it happens, but it's pretty rare. I also know she can be hard to read, but I'd like to give her a chance before everyone bandwagons on her.
Click to expand...

Actually, last game was ny's second time in a row. I just want her to talk early is all.
 
Animal Midwife said:
I think she's got the same chance as anyone else.
Click to expand...
Have you taken a statistics class? The chance of rolling a 2 on a 6 sided die is 1 in 6. The chance of rolling a 2 two times in a row is 1 in 36, the chances of rolling a 2 three times in a row is 1 in 216! But for each individual roll, the chance is still 1 in 6. So you see when you take three games in a row into consideration, the chances of being a wolf three times in a row is definitely possible, but becomes increasingly less likely.
 
Jilary said:
Have you taken a statistics class? The chance of rolling a 2 on a 6 sided die is 1 in 6. The chance of rolling a 2 two times in a row is 1 in 36, the chances of rolling a 2 three times in a row is 1 in 216! But for each individual roll, the chance is still 1 in 6. So you see when you take three games in a row into consideration, the chances of being a wolf three times in a row is definitely possible, but becomes increasingly less likely.
Click to expand...
And obviously the stats on a ww game are a lot more complicated than rolling dice, but I thought this was the best way of explaining the concept.
 
Jilary said:
Have you taken a statistics class? The chance of rolling a 2 on a 6 sided die is 1 in 6. The chance of rolling a 2 two times in a row is 1 in 36, the chances of rolling a 2 three times in a row is 1 in 216! But for each individual roll, the chance is still 1 in 6. So you see when you take three games in a row into consideration, the chances of being a wolf three times in a row is definitely possible, but becomes increasingly less likely.
Click to expand...

Jilary said:
And obviously the stats on a ww game are a lot more complicated than rolling dice, but I thought this was the best way of explaining the concept.
Click to expand...

I get what you're saying, but WW isn't a constant like a die is. I don't think we can use statistics unless we know these particulars mods reroll if someone's been a wolf a lot.
 
Animal Midwife said:
I get what you're saying, but WW isn't a constant like a die is. I don't think we can use statistics unless we know these particulars mods reroll if someone's been a wolf a lot.
Click to expand...
I did say ww is a lot more complicated and a mod re-rolling if someone has been a wolf a lot would just decrease the chances, making it even less likely. I don't know if these particular mods would re-roll or not, but still I think the chances are very low that Ny is a wolf three games in a row.

I know it's definitely possible, but I have a feeling lynching her right now will just result in lynching a villager.
 
Jilary said:
Have you taken a statistics class? The chance of rolling a 2 on a 6 sided die is 1 in 6. The chance of rolling a 2 two times in a row is 1 in 36, the chances of rolling a 2 three times in a row is 1 in 216! But for each individual roll, the chance is still 1 in 6. So you see when you take three games in a row into consideration, the chances of being a wolf three times in a row is definitely possible, but becomes increasingly less likely.
Click to expand...
You are starting to go into my territory now 😉. You are taking three completely independent events and trying to place a statistical analysis that involves influence (or confluence) from previous events. That's just not how statistics works in this case
 
Day 1 Why Are There Statistics in My Game Thread Lynch Tally

lotf (4) - ski, raf, shelter, ny
coopah (1) - genny
pippy (1) - lotf
AM (1) - coopah
ny (3) - AM, pippy, LIS
FS (1) - lupes
ski (1) - finn
jilary (2) - STL, nohika
genny (1) - strider
strider (2) - hazel, jilary
nohika (1) - cheat
raf (1) - lyra

It's too bad, I was hoping we were going for the 12 way tie 🙁
19/24 votes
Deadline: 11pm EST (~13 hours)
 
Jilary said:
I did say ww is a lot more complicated and a mod re-rolling if someone has been a wolf a lot would just decrease the chances, making it even less likely. I don't know if these particular mods would re-roll or not, but still I think the chances are very low that Ny is a wolf three games in a row.

I know it's definitely possible, but I have a feeling lynching her right now will just result in lynching a villager.
Click to expand...

Well, considering she's only posted two sentences, I really don't have any strong village feels yet. Regardless, she still has 13 hours to defend.
 
Jilary said:
I did say ww is a lot more complicated and a mod re-rolling if someone has been a wolf a lot would just decrease the chances, making it even less likely. I don't know if these particular mods would re-roll or not, but still I think the chances are very low that Ny is a wolf three games in a row.

I know it's definitely possible, but I have a feeling lynching her right now will just result in lynching a villager.
Click to expand...
This while conversation makes me side eye you, because A. The math is wrong, STL is completely correct in that regard, and B. This feels like a huge distraction to get people off Ny. If you flip wolf I'll def look at Ny.
 
Coopah said:
This while conversation makes me side eye you, because A. The math is wrong, STL is completely correct in that regard, and B. This feels like a huge distraction to get people off Ny. If you flip wolf I'll def look at Ny.
Click to expand...
Why "definitely"? And regardless, if you want to see how Jil flips to inform your thoughts on someone else, why aren't you voting for Jil?
 
PippyPony said:
@Coopah now that everyone's had a good night's sleep, can you clarify why you're so strongly gung ho on lynching AM "until dead" based on a D1 vote?
Click to expand...
Lol trust me not everyone's had a good night's sleep. But I might be the only player that I know of for that to be the case. Anyways, I said I would until dead if she was voting Ny as a grudge vote, which I would still like clarification on @Animal Midwife, because I didn't think AM held to such practices (implies wolf) and it's a stupid policy to boot.
 
PippyPony said:
Why "definitely"? And regardless, if you want to see how Jil flips to inform your thoughts on someone else, why aren't you voting for Jil?
Click to expand...
Lol Pippy jumping down my throat it's def WW. I was condisering a Jilary vote, but want more from AM before I switch. Because her comment struck me as sketchy and I want an explanation if she was just joking or whatever.
 
Coopah said:
Lol Pippy jumping down my throat it's def WW.
Click to expand...
now-its-a-real-party-149272.jpg
 
SummerTheLynx said:
You are starting to go into my territory now 😉. You are taking three completely independent events and trying to place a statistical analysis that involves influence (or confluence) from previous events. That's just not how statistics works in this case
Click to expand...
I'm feeling a bit like a broken record when I say ww is considerably more complicated, but I do feel the same basic concepts applies, in that the probability that Ny is a wolf three games in a row is very low and the probability that lynching her today will result in lynching a villager is very high. I get that the actual stats would be extremely difficult to derive as we have different players and different numbers of players etc.

Coopah said:
This while conversation makes me side eye you, because A. The math is wrong, STL is completely correct in that regard, and B. This feels like a huge distraction to get people off Ny. If you flip wolf I'll def look at Ny.
Click to expand...
Not once did I say that was the actual math. It was a very simple basic example. And you are taking crazy pills if you think I would defend a fellow wolf like this D1. Plus I'm not even saying she's definitely not a wolf, I just think it's highly unlikely.
 
Jilary said:
Lynch strider

For now, since I feel like I don't know who that is, and would like them to talk so I can learn more about them and their game play style.
Click to expand...
I'm a newbie, please don't lynch before I get to play!

Hard to have much to say on a day one lynch when there's just about nothing to go on. Unless I further the statistical debate, where it all depends on what model of statistics we're using (Bayesian? not Bayesian? Once upon a time I knew about these things). I find Nyanko's play confusing on the games I've read, but as far as probability goes we're so headed for the coin-flipping scene in Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead.
 
Coopah said:
This while conversation makes me side eye you, because A. The math is wrong, STL is completely correct in that regard, and B. This feels like a huge distraction to get people off Ny. If you flip wolf I'll def look at Ny.
Click to expand...
Wait, coopah said I am completely correct on something?! Must be a wolf!
 
Did someone say stats?

If my masters in Biostatistics isn't enough, I can summon @DocEspana...

Jillary, if you were asking the odds that she would be to roll a 6 for the next 3 rolls, then your math is correct...

However, the first two 6's already came (a 1 in 36 chance). So now, to get to 3 straight 6's, you only need to roll another 6, a 1 in 6 chance. It's still less likely to happen just cause there's a 5 in 6 chance of it not happening, however, the odds are just as good as anyone else rolling a single 6.

#lynch stl#

If anyone needs an explanation why than you need to do your ww homework
 
Coopah said:
This while conversation makes me side eye you, because A. The math is wrong, STL is completely correct in that regard, and B. This feels like a huge distraction to get people off Ny. If you flip wolf I'll def look at Ny.
Click to expand...

The odds of them both being a wolf is ridiculously low, especially if they were both wolves last game. Not only that, if Ny WAS a wolf, Jil would be an idiot to defend her this early. There's no way they'd both be wolves, especially since they're both veterans. I think it's completely reasonable for her to say that the chances of her being a wolf 3 games in a row is low af, and if we are at a complete loss on who to lynch D1, it should at least be someone who is more statistically likely to flip wolf
 
I WAS NOT A WOLF IN THE GAME BEFORE THE LAST ONE in case this is going to continue to perpetuate.

and me being one in the last game has nothing to do with my odds of being village or wolf this game.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Animal Midwife
Death Nommy - Game Thread
83 84 85 86 87
Replies
4K
Views
54K
Animal Midwife
Animal Midwife
WildZoo
  • Poll Poll
Mission ImpoWWssible Game Thread
46 47 48 49 50
Replies
2K
Views
39K
Clem J
Clem J
supershorty
GGoats ThWWee: Here It GGoats Again - GAME THREAD
93 94 95 96 97
Replies
5K
Views
54K
vampyrica
vampyrica
Animal Midwife
Matrix - Game Thread
77 78 79 80 81
Replies
4K
Views
88K
samac
samac
WildZoo
  • Poll Poll
PokeWWon: A Wild Kanto Adventure - Champs Season 12 Practice Game Thread
87 88 89 90 91
Replies
5K
Views
57K
Animal Midwife
Animal Midwife
Top