WWho Let the Dogs Out? - Game Thread

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When did the thread say they conversed last nigh I must have missed that

It's stated by Jimble/Skilary to AMSAR on here as:

Why? I literally haven’t posted and you are already lynching me? Am I just your new favorite lynch candidate? Oh, and you are welcome for last night, but whatever.

Which seemed to imply the two interacted last night
 
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That could mean anything lol

I must've gotten misled because these posts came in the midst of other discussions about night results, PMs and interpretations based on what said on PMs, so seeing a statement like: "Oh, and you are welcome for last night, but whatever." led me to think that something happened last night and the two discussed.
 
And I'm not sure why Skim is all worked up at AM.

If you acted on her last night, Jil, which it sounds like you did, then she wouldn't know it was you unless you told her today...and when you did, she unlynched you. I'm not sure why that is weird? And if she was wolfy, she wouldn't have known you had a role until you put it on the thread, so it wouldn't have played into a kill decision until tonight.
 
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Your basis for lynching me though is that I'm different from past games. I don't know what you're asking me to defend from.
I was speaking in general of past games, you were talking about specifics in past games that have nothing to do with why I’m lynching you now.
Why did you feel the need to let MPM know this?
I’m dead anyway, and I just wanted to put it out there that it wasn’t me.
I'm referring to whatever night conversation the two had based on Jimble/Skilary's comments mentioned on here. I just think that if the two had conversed last night, there would be a reason behind AMSAR's initial vote.
We did not talk, we are in different groups.
And I'm not sure why Skim is all worked up at AM.

If you acted on her last night, Jil, which it sounds like you did, then she wouldn't know it was you unless you told her today...and when you did, she unlynched you. I'm not sure why that is weird? And if she was wolfy, she wouldn't have known you had a role until you put it on the thread, so it wouldn't have played into a kill decision until tonight.
At no point did I say My lynch vote for her was related to me acting on her. My lynch vote for her is because when I asked her why she was voting for me, she said she had no reason. I don’t believe that is true, and the only reason to lie about it would be because she had wolfy reasons.
 
Day 1 Still Hungry Lunch Tally

Pippy Puppy (1) - Coopah
SportsPuppies (1) - stagg
Mel (2)- Capri, Crayola
Grebes (1)- Lawper (Pawpy)
MJ (1)- Pippy puppy
Matty ice (1)- Grebes
AMSAR (1)- Skimble
Skimble (1)- MJ

9/26 voting. FEED ME VOTES!!!

@Melchizedek you’re in the lead... for now.


do I smell waffle batter?
 
She's literally dying tonight.
If she’s already dying tonight though, why not just lynch her? This early on you’re more likely to lynch a villager than a wolf. So lynching skim would just mean losing one villager, not potentially two.

She said she was dying end of day I believe? So unless someone has an ability that can be used during the day (it’s been a while since I played, but I don’t remember Day abilities being common) that could save her, it seems to make more sense to lynch her.
 
She's literally dying tonight.
I never buy the "I'm dying tonight" gambit because I've used that BS to stay alive one more cycle as a wolf more times than I can count. If she is dying tonight and flips village on lynch it still works out for us since it spares us the very likely chance that we'd just kill a villager with a shot in the dark day one lynch and she's claiming she would die anyway. We get more info tonight and have doubled our info toward getting a wolf tomorrow. Or I'm right and we get a wolf. It's win/win/win
 
If she’s already dying tonight though, why not just lynch her? This early on you’re more likely to lynch a villager than a wolf. So lynching skim would just mean losing one villager, not potentially two.

She said she was dying end of day I believe? So unless someone has an ability that can be used during the day (it’s been a while since I played, but I don’t remember Day abilities being common) that could save her, it seems to make more sense to lynch her.

We're trying to lynch wolves though. Let's aim for one wolf and one village down if we can.
 
If she’s already dying tonight though, why not just lynch her? This early on you’re more likely to lynch a villager than a wolf. So lynching skim would just mean losing one villager, not potentially two.

She said she was dying end of day I believe? So unless someone has an ability that can be used during the day (it’s been a while since I played, but I don’t remember Day abilities being common) that could save her, it seems to make more sense to lynch her.
But if everyone just lynches skim, you lose all the info from a lynch. Like vote changes, waffles, interactions. Isn’t that like wasting a day?

Idk maybe what you propose is a better strategy and I’m just inexperienced and crazy.
 
We're trying to lynch wolves though. Let's aim for one wolf and one village down if we can.
Obviously we’re trying to lynch a wolf. But like MJ just said, we’re more likely to lose another villager in this lynch.

No one seems to have any real evidence and is just throwing shade at each other. Why not just have one villager die instead of two?
 
I never buy the "I'm dying tonight" gambit because I've used that BS to stay alive one more cycle as a wolf more times than I can count. If she is dying tonight and flips village on lynch it still works out for us since it spares us the very likely chance that we'd just kill a villager with a shot in the dark day one lynch and she's claiming she would die anyway. We get more info tonight and have doubled our info toward getting a wolf tomorrow. Or I'm right and we get a wolf. It's win/win/win
But it’s not like skim just came up with it, it was something multiple people gleaned from the way the write up was written. If skim was lying I would expect the villager that is described in it to speak up...
 
I never buy the "I'm dying tonight" gambit because I've used that BS to stay alive one more cycle as a wolf more times than I can count. If she is dying tonight and flips village on lynch it still works out for us since it spares us the very likely chance that we'd just kill a villager with a shot in the dark day one lynch and she's claiming she would die anyway. We get more info tonight and have doubled our info toward getting a wolf tomorrow. Or I'm right and we get a wolf. It's win/win/win

That raise the chances of us maybe hitting a villager to absolutely hitting one imo. I assume you're voting for her though because you're suspicious which, while I disagree, is a valid opinion.
 
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Obviously we’re trying to lynch a wolf. But like MJ just said, we’re more likely to lose another villager in this lynch.

No one seems to have any real evidence and is just throwing shade at each other. Why not just have one villager die instead of two?

I can think of two recent games where I straight up lynched a wolf D1 and had greater success in the following days. I swear the longer it take for us to lynch a wolf the most random the reasoning gets. I don't believe two villagers have to die.
 
I'm inclined to side with Caiter and MJ. Does anyone else have experience with folks who have claimed they were going to die the following night?
 
That raise the chances of us maybe hitting a villager to absolutely hitting one imo. I assume you're voting for her though because you're suspicious which, while I disagree, is a valid opinion.
I'm voting because I'm suspicious but I'm also saying that based on what we have gathered nothing of value will be lost since we are killing a dead person. If we miss (most likely scenario) and she dies at end of day, we are down two villagers. If we kill her, we are down one villager. Simple math if you're playing conservatively.
 
I never buy the "I'm dying tonight" gambit because I've used that BS to stay alive one more cycle as a wolf more times than I can count. If she is dying tonight and flips village on lynch it still works out for us since it spares us the very likely chance that we'd just kill a villager with a shot in the dark day one lynch and she's claiming she would die anyway. We get more info tonight and have doubled our info toward getting a wolf tomorrow. Or I'm right and we get a wolf. It's win/win/win
Not sure I agree with that. If Skim’s lying, we can just lynch her tomorrow.
 
Day 1 Still Hungry Lunch Tally

Pippy Puppy (1) - Coopah
SportsPuppies (1) - stagg
Mel (2)- Capri, Crayola
Grebes (0)-
MJ (1)- Pippy puppy
Matty ice (1)- Grebes
AMSAR (1)- Skimble
Skimble (1)- MJ
Muttmanager (1)- Lawper

9/26 voting. FEED ME VOTES!!!

@Melchizedek you’re in the lead... for now.


do I smell waffle batter?
 
The stats appear to be against that logic:
" Post #2 (ISO) » Mon May 07, 2012 9:35 am

Let's take your classic newbie setup, as an example.
7 town
2 scum

Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but lynch every day from then, and scum also kills every night.
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum. (25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum. (33% chance of hitting scum)

Now let's say town lynch D1:
D2: 5 town, 2 scum. (28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum. (40% chance of hitting scum)

As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone D1. There's some rule about that, it's in the wiki somewhere.
This is just from a statistical PoV, but lynching D1 is almost always better."
No-Lynch D1: A bad move? • Mafiascum.net
 
That raise the chances of us maybe hitting a villager to absolutely hitting one imo. I assume you're voting for her though because you're suspicious which, while I disagree, is a valid opinion.
But you’re already going to be more likely to hit a villager. It’s not a maybe, it’s the most likely option here.
 
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The stats appear to be against that logic:
" Post #2 (ISO) » Mon May 07, 2012 9:35 am

Let's take your classic newbie setup, as an example.
7 town
2 scum

Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but lynch every day from then, and scum also kills every night.
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum. (25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum. (33% chance of hitting scum)

Now let's say town lynch D1:
D2: 5 town, 2 scum. (28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum. (40% chance of hitting scum)

As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone D1. There's some rule about that, it's in the wiki somewhere.
This is just from a statistical PoV, but lynching D1 is almost always better."
No-Lynch D1: A bad move? • Mafiascum.net
That math applied to one character not being killed, it's a totally different scenario. It also completely neglects information gained via night cycles and analysis. The village should always lynch, but lynch wisely. I believe this to be the wisest choice, feel free to disagree.
 
IMO anyone who votes for Skim today is looking for an easy way to coast through today's lynch and make it more difficult to analyze their vote on D1 moving forward. We have to have village deaths to learn things, idk why today is any different.