You know what, I see your point now aabb. I thought plenty of people were getting rejected pre- and post-interview but now that I look closely at the thread, not 1 person has posted a post-interview rejection. Lots of pre-interview rejections and rejections without indicators. What this means is that the wait list might be the entire 7-8% of the applicant pool they interviewed. Lets look to this information then, from
Eduers.com:
Fall 2007 Admissions Statistics
Total admissions data 9890 applied, 817 interviewed, 539 were accepted, 178 enrolled
In-state admissions data 1110 applied, 218 interviewed, 187 were accepted, 77 enrolled
Out-state admissions data 8780 applied, 599 interviewed, 352 were accepted, 101 enrolled
Women admissions data 4891 applied, 403 interviewed, 294 were accepted, 82 enrolled
Minor admissions data 4252 applied, 351 interviewed, 231 were accepted, 69 enrolled
International admissions data 71 applied, 0 interviewed, 0 were accepted, 0 enrolled
According to this data (yes 2007 was a while ago, but its all I've got), if you're in-state, you've got a 187 / 218 = 85.8% chance of getting in after interview, including the waitlist. Likewise, if you're out of state (like me), you've got a 352 / 599 = 58.8% chance.
Now, thats before they dished out the first acceptances, which I am assuming are exactly the number of spots available in the class. For approximate numbers, we can just take the 77 for spots given to in-state and the 101 for spots given to out of state and subtract them from the equation since they are already gone. This means there are 110 spots left for in-staters and 141 in-staters left on the wait list, so 110 / 141 = 78.0% chance of acceptance. Likewise, there are 251 spots left for out-of-staters and 498 out-of-staters left on the wait list, so 251 / 498 = 50.4% chance of acceptance.
So, there you have it. Sorry if I bored you
😴. Assuming some things (which are probably not correct to assume) and manipulating some numbers (which may indeed be the wrong numbers), we see that if you're on the wait list right now if you're in-state you have a 78% chance of coming off and if you're out-of-state you have a 50.4% chance of coming off. That's a realistic chance if I ever saw one.
Please, someone poke some holes in this or I'll likely consider it true.