This is a pretty good rule of thumb. I'd say if you're in-state, even if we happened to have an amazing year and everyone we accepted chose to matriculate, a rank number up to 10-12 is probably going to be solid no matter what. It looked like the waitlist moved a lot more last year than it did 2 years ago because a ton of people end up withdrawing while on the waitlist, so even though they were something like "#21" they were the "10th" waitlist spot offered. It's hard to say how this year is looking, but I'm sure the list will slowly move as financial aid offers come out at other schools, and scholarship offers are redistributed at our school.
We are told to tell most OOS people that we have not had to pull from the waitlist in the past several years (1 or 2 likely at most), but I know we're also looking to increase the OOS class pool size, so there's a chance maybe the #1-4 spots could have an okay shot this year too. An M1 from the current class who is OOS told me that he was taken off the alternate list, but I don't know his exact circumstance (so don't give up hope if you're really dying to come here)
Thank you so much Jennyfishy!
Definitely appreciate current students hanging around w us.
I agree: 10-12 is solid.
I'm currently ranked in top 5 within IS WL
so Really looking forward to joining you and your classmates.
fingers crossed.