Last year, 964 people were interviewed for a class of 216. Not even factoring in the fact that usually between 1.5 - 2x the number of seats are accepted, 216/964 is 22.4% . Therefore, we know that at bare minimum (and this is a very conservative value) the number of interviewees accepted is at least 22.4%. I do not know whether they over-accept or just waitlist everyone who surpasses max capacity, but MSAR reports that on average 100 waitlist positions are granted, and 75 of those waitlisters will be provided an offer. That means in the worst case scenario for those not accepted (where all 748 people who are not accepted are waitlisted), you have a 13% chance of getting on the waitlist if you are not accepted right away post-interview. And if you are waitlisted, then you have a 75% chance of getting pulled off.
So according to my calculations, here are the worst (and I repeat, the worst) case scenario results:
about 22.4% of interviewees are offered an acceptance right after the interview, and only 13% of those who are not accepted are waitlisted.
Again, these numbers are only true if the following assumptions are true:
1. VCU does not over-accept past the number of available seats, and gives the remaining 748 interviewees either a position on the waitlist or a rejection.
2. All 748 of those applicants are waitlisted, and none are rejected until the very end of the cycle.
Does anyone have any data to chime in? any critiques on my analysis? I'm just trying to figure out our chances 😛
