MSAR says 45. Over the last 11 years, they made it over 60 three times. Last 5 years; 44, 57, 54, 62, 106. They on average the last 5 years have moved 5 or fewer spots from this date forward, putting this year to likely be at most mid fifties.
Also there is turnover in offers well before waitlist. That's how they get 230+. You can't just take offers 230+, minus spots 153, and get wait list movement. Tons of stuff happens before waitlist, which means WL movement has to be less than 77ish (depending on the + part).