Back to Basics WW: A Cycling Edition - Game Thread

[capri1722]

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Although I do find it interesting that it seems she popped back up out of nowhere just in time for some night actions

🤣

 

[PippyPony]

Had I gotten on earlier I wanted to ask Pips what it was about Raf's vote that made her suspect Dolphin. I don't totally understand voting analysis, but the only case I could make was why would Raf choose to bring PCC down with her instead of Dolphin or Weim? Possible answer being that one or both of them were wolves. That's also one of the reasons I chose to lynch Weim, even though I realized after I posted that it really didn't make any difference.

I'm half asleep, but --

Basically, was looking at the day 3 runners-up and where raf could have chosen to go with her vote, as well as what led up to that point. It appeared she could have chosen weim or dolphin instead of PBC. Dolphin was on the board before weim and PBC (I think) and raf had already voted for weim prior to that day, so I felt like it was maybe less likely that weim was the wolf option that raf was trying to avoid having lynched alongside her.

Sorry if that's not that clear, can maybe do the english better tomorrow.

 

[capri1722]

I'm half asleep, but --

Basically, was looking at the day 3 runners-up and where raf could have chosen to go with her vote, as well as what led up to that point. It appeared she could have chosen weim or dolphin instead of PBC. Dolphin was on the board before weim and PBC (I think) and raf had already voted for weim prior to that day, so I felt like it was maybe less likely that weim was the wolf option that raf was trying to avoid having lynched alongside her.

Sorry if that's not that clear, can maybe do the english better tomorrow.

No worries on clarity; your reasoning matches up with what I suspected.

But since I'm rereading anyway (the one night I have enough free time to actually put effort into this game), there were two contingency votes (AM for me and me for Weim) so Weim was on the board before either Dolph, PCC, or Raf, but Dolph received the first non-contingency lynch vote of the day, from Sporty.

 

[WildZoo]

N4

@Karabiner13 and Dubz could see the Homer Public Library in the distance, and thank goodness, because Dubz was in dire need of a rest stop. Karabou rolled her eyes a bit...she had told her manator to train further in advance for the ride, but some things never change. The sight of the rest stop motivated them to pedal faster, and others followed their lead, though still the energy from the group was oddly low. @Skimble and her buddy rode together as always, cheering each other on. Someone called Skim's name, and while she was only distracted for a moment, she didn't see the pot hole coming up in the road. Her front tire slammed into it, sending her flipping over the handlebars. She took out at least 5 other riders with her, and her buddy stopped to see if she was alright. Skim waved her off and the other riders continued on their way...

Dead is @Skimble - Ride Buddy - Town Mason

It is now Day 5. 8 players remain.

Cyclists
2. @johnnaboo
3. @PippyPony
5. @Animal Midwife
12. @genny
14. @SportPonies
15. @WeimMama
16. @allieh8607
17. @capri1722

First Aid Tent
7. @Stagg737 - vanilla townie
11. @SnowshoeDog143- vanilla townie
8. @cheathac - vanilla townie
9. @bryndiana.jones - town bodyguard
4. @raf2769 - mafia goon
1. @PrincessButterCup / @Crayola227 - vanilla townie
13. @katashark - vanilla townie
10. @dolphin106258 - vanilla townie
6. @Skimble - town mason


Oh and by the way...it is LyLo

 

[capri1722]

Oh and since I'm rereading...

Why? That doesn’t seem terribly conducive as something you said was a pressure vote and gave no other reason for

What?

Didn’t you say you’re keeping your vote on MJ/Capri until she’s dead? Your vote started as a pressure vote to get MJ to talk and I don’t remember you giving any indication you had a reason besides that. So why keep your vote there until dead?

Is there a reason I shouldn't vote for her?

It seems like a strange choice to keep on a pressure vote that long with no reason behind it.

Do you have feels for anyone else?

Yes. I mentioned them yesterday.

File under reasons I think AM is lynchable, but lynchable doesn't necessarily = wolfy, especially during lylo. You have other feels and continue to tunnel on a pressure vote? Noting for later in case I change my mind.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Had I gotten on earlier I wanted to ask Pips what it was about Raf's vote that made her suspect Dolphin. I don't totally understand voting analysis, but the only case I could make was why would Raf choose to bring PCC down with her instead of Dolphin or Weim? Possible answer being that one or both of them were wolves. That's also one of the reasons I chose to lynch Weim, even though I realized after I posted that it really didn't make any difference.

How do you feel about Weim now?

 

[capri1722]

How do you feel about Weim now?

That's what the reread is for. I'm currently evaluating who I think is most village.

 

[Animal Midwife]

That's what the reread is for. I'm currently evaluating who I think is most village.

Don't forget who is most wolfy.

 

[capri1722]

Don't forget who is most wolfy.

I find working backwards is sometimes more useful.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Since this is lylo my saltiness may reach hypercholesterolemic levels, so be careful.

 

[capri1722]

So. Based on what we saw with Raf's lynch, and specifically her last second switch, I have to wonder if wolves wouldn't do a similar strategy if one of them had been one of the targets of the D1 lynch. Especially considering Sporty, Skim, Allie, and Jboo were not voting for any of the frontrunners--if one of them was a wolf, they could switch and claim it was to avoid a tie. This would clear Stagg (confirmed village), Pippy, and MJ/myself. I would throw sketch points towards Weim if PCC had flipped wolf, since Weim would have been included in the tie if not for Cray's unlynch. However, since PCC was village, this gives Weim no net points.

Next thing to analyze is Raf's lynch history. Yeah, yeah, don't trust a wolf, whatever. But keep in mind Raf didn't have a whole lot of suspicion until the day she was lynched, so she could safely accuse players she knew to be village without garnering much heat for herself. Raf's first vote on D1 was for Jboo because...

original tag didn't work for me, and I feel like a wolf would be watching more closely for the thread to go up, and therefore would be one of the first people to be on here when the game actually started.

...which, as was pointed out, is a pretty flimsy reason. Not to mention Jboo was the one to start the lynch on Raf. So I'm pretty sure she's cleared.

Next Raf vote was for Weim, which was for the tie thing. Brushing this one off as null since she was not the only one to comment on it and say it was sketchy. It would be more sketchy for Raf to ignore it or defend Weim.

could also go for a dolphin lynch, because of the timing of coming on right after lynch and being sorry that the person he/she lynched almost actually got lynched. a little too much wishy washy backtracking for me.

Another example of casting shade on a later-confirmed villager.

In general would like to hear more from weim, dolphin, genny, allie, and sporty today.

100% at least one wolf in here. It's just too big of a list to not have a wolf. And 4/5 of them are still alive, so it's mathematically certain that at least two are wolves if you think that the players I've already mentioned are village.

also how I'm feeling about sporty right now

Disagree, I actually felt like Sporty's post earlier was similar to her normal absentee voting. Feeling a bit better about her after that

This could maaaaayyyyybe clear Sporty but it's weak.

I agree with AM about the echoing, and I don't have super strong feelings towards people on the board right now.

Likewise, this could maaaaayyyyyybe incriminate AM, but it's weak. (I want to ~belieeeeeve~)
But seriously someone tell me if I'm tunneling on someone in your hard village camp or clearing someone in your hard wolf camp. I'm dense sometimes.

So I'm gonna sleep on all of this and if someone wants to add their thoughts that'd be great.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Day 1 Lynch Tally
cheat (1) - AM, Sporty
kata () - jboo
allie () - Cray
Pippy (3) - dolphin, Snowy, cheat
Stagg (3) - bryndi, Pippy, Cray, MJ, Pippy
genny () - Skim
bryndi (1) - Stagg
MJ (3) - genny, AM, allie, Weim
jboo () - raf
Snowy (1) - Pippy, Skim, Weim
Weim (2) - raf, allie, Cray
raf (1) - jboo

15/17
Missing: kata, Cray

Day 2 Lynch Tally
MJ (2) - AM, allie
bryndi () - dolphin, Skim, genny
Weim (1) - raf, Cray, PCC
cheat (4) - Pippy, bryndi, Skim, dolphin
allie (1) - Cray, kata
Cray (1) - Weim
raf (1) - jboo
dolphin (2) - Sporty, cheat
kata (1) - raf

13/15
Missing: genny, MJ

Day 3 Lynch Tally
capri (1) - AM
Weim (2) - capri, dolphin
dolphin (2) - Sporty, kata
genny (1) - allie
kata () - raf
raf (3) - jboo, Skim, Pippy
PCC (3) - genny, Weim, raf
allie (1) - PCC

13/13

Day 4 Lynch Tally
capri (2) - AM, Pippy
Pippy () - jboo
Weim (2) - Pippy, dolphin, capri
dolphin (5) - Pippy, Sporty, Weim, allie, Pippy, jboo
allie (1) - jboo, genny
genny () - allie
Sporty (1) - Skim

10/10

 

[Animal Midwife]

People in my POE are capri, Sporty, Weim and ~????~.

 

[Animal Midwife]

I would love to see other POEs too, but I think mine is very good.

 

[jaboo]

I would love to see other POEs too, but I think mine is very good.

I’m on mobile without the search tool on this thread. What is POE again? Also because I’m lazy and forgot, NAI?

 

[Animal Midwife]

I’m on mobile without the search tool on this thread. What is POE again? Also because I’m lazy and forgot, NAI?

Process of Eilmation
Not Affiliation Indicative

 

[Animal Midwife]

i also appreciate that this is lylo is composed of people who are difficult to read

 

[PippyPony]

So. Based on what we saw with Raf's lynch, and specifically her last second switch, I have to wonder if wolves wouldn't do a similar strategy if one of them had been one of the targets of the D1 lynch. Especially considering Sporty, Skim, Allie, and Jboo were not voting for any of the frontrunners--if one of them was a wolf, they could switch and claim it was to avoid a tie. This would clear Stagg (confirmed village), Pippy, and MJ/myself.

No it does not.

Read the tie mechanics from the intro post and tell me if that theory makes sense in that context.

There's also a distinct difference in my mind between me and Stagg, who were leading all day, vs you, who showed up as a candidate basically right before close.

People in my POE are capri, Sporty, Weim and ~????~.

AM I'm going smack you if you continue to do this stuff today

i also appreciate that this is lylo is composed of people who are difficult to read

And, I don't think you get to complain about this too much. You could have been voting for other people all along, and some of these candidates may have been off the board by now, but you have chosen to lynch the same person repeatedly for the whole game.

Lynch Weim

I'm going to the beach.

 

[PippyPony]

Mason should probably claim early so that they can be cleared, btw.

 

[allieh8607]

Mason should probably claim early so that they can be cleared, btw.

It's me.

 

[Animal Midwife]

And, I don't think you get to complain about this too much. You could have been voting for other people all along, and some of these candidates may have been off the board by now, but you have chosen to lynch the same person repeatedly for the whole game.

Actually wasn't complaining. I like complex situations.

Lynch Weim

I'm going to the beach.

Can I ask why? And do you think you'll be around much today?

 

[Animal Midwife]

POE is now fully unlocked and includes capri, Sporty, Weim, and genny.

 

[PippyPony]

Can I ask why? And do you think you'll be around much today?

Because I was wrong yesterday and I don't want discussion to stall entirely.

Probably in and out, and may not be around much this evening because it's the last night of our vacation, but am planning on doing my best.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Because I was wrong yesterday and I don't want discussion to stall entirely.

Probably in and out, and may not be around much this evening because it's the last night of our vacation, but am planning on doing my best.

Okay, just wanted to know, because if you decide this who you want to lynch near EOD, we'll likely have to move there.

 

[PippyPony]

Okay, just wanted to know, because if you decide this who you want to lynch near EOD, we'll likely have to move there.

I realize how lylo works

I thought you were not opposed to discussion?

Also, I'm on the beach right now, and am obviously still here, so let's worry about me disappearing when it happens, eh? 😉

 

[Animal Midwife]

I realize how lylo works

I thought you were not opposed to discussion?

Also, I'm on the beach right now, and am obviously still here, so let's worry about me disappearing when it happens, eh? 😉

I'm not opposed, just twitchy in general.

 

[Animal Midwife]

what if my poe isn't just a poe but actually has all three wolves in it and is just a test

 

[PippyPony]

POE is now fully unlocked and includes capri, Sporty, Weim, and genny.

I'm curious where genny came from on this list -- I thought you had her as village

I had her as wolfy towards the beginning of the game, and allie claiming the mason role is kind of making me want to go back to that read

 

[PippyPony]

what if my poe isn't just a poe but actually has all three wolves in it and is just a test

Then I don't know what you mean by POE, because I assumed you meant they were your top wolf candidates

Doesn't seem like the game to run reaction tests -- no one is reacting to jack ****

 

[PippyPony]

Started out today with capri, allie, and weim as my top candidates; allie's claim is obviously not getting contested so that leaves an open spot

Tinfoily pip wonders if AM has been pushing a capri lynch for the whole game because she is a wolf, picked an easy sketch lynch on D1, and then we've all allowed her to remain stuck on it

 

[Animal Midwife]

I'm curious where genny came from on this list -- I thought you had her as village

I had her as wolfy towards the beginning of the game, and allie claiming the mason role is kind of making me want to go back to that read

No. In fact, I never shared a list of who I thought was village.

 

[capri1722]

No it does not.

Read the tie mechanics from the intro post and tell me if that theory makes sense in that context.

There's also a distinct difference in my mind between me and Stagg, who were leading all day, vs you, who showed up as a candidate basically right before close.

I am aware of the tie mechanics. But if you were at risk of even maybe losing a pack member on D1, wouldn't you want to switch it to a villager and just claim you broke the tie because ties are bad for village? You could also gamble between who would die but I think the risk of a last minute vote to break a tie is less than the 33% risk that a wolf would have died in that lynch (assuming you or I were wolves).

 

[PippyPony]

No. In fact, I never shared a list of who I thought was village.

No, I know you didn't give a list (/don't typically give lists), but your interactions with her for the past couple days was actually one of the things that made me start to question the earlier feels

 

[capri1722]

No. In fact, I never shared a list of who I thought was village.

So then for clarity's sake, genny, Sporty, Weim, and I are your top wolf suspects

 

[Animal Midwife]

No, I know you didn't give a list (/don't typically give lists), but your interactions with her for the past couple days was actually one of the things that made me start to question the earlier feels

What do you mean?

So then for clarity's sake, genny, Sporty, Weim, and I are your top wolf suspects

Yes.

 

[PippyPony]

What do you mean?

Nuh uh -- you answer my original question first

 

[jaboo]

Today is packing day so I won’t be on much
Tomorrow is the 10 hr drive to Wisc so again won’t be on much
Will try to pop in when possible

Lynch Sporty

 

[PippyPony]

I am aware of the tie mechanics. But if you were at risk of even maybe losing a pack member on D1, wouldn't you want to switch it to a villager and just claim you broke the tie because ties are bad for village? You could also gamble between who would die but I think the risk of a last minute vote to break a tie is less than the 33% risk that a wolf would have died in that lynch (assuming you or I were wolves).

Sure, assuming wolves were around between the time you started gaining traction and lynch close, which I am not sure is a sound assumption

 

[Animal Midwife]

Nuh uh -- you answer my original question first

What was the original question?

 

[PippyPony]

What was the original question?

Where did your original genny feels come from?

 

[Animal Midwife]

Where did your original genny feels come from?

From her stiffness.

 

[Karabiner13]

D5 Lynch Tally

Capri (1) - am
Weim (1) - pippy
Sporty (1) - jboo

3/8

Deadline ~9 hours

 

[capri1722]

Sure, assuming wolves were around between the time you started gaining traction and lynch close, which I am not sure is a sound assumption

First lynch vote for MJ was at 10:47am. At this time Stagg was in the lead with a bunch of people at 1 lynch vote each.

Pippy ties with Stagg at 1:35pm.

MJ casts a vote at 3:43pm, disappears until the next day.

5:56pm, Snowy ties with Pippy and Stagg at 3 votes. At 7:21pm, Snowy falls back to 2 votes.

6:26pm AM adds a vote on MJ, making him/me a somewhat viable lynch candidate.

At 7:41pm Allie lynches MJ, 3 votes to Stagg's 4.

At 7:50pm Weim lynches MJ, ties with Stagg at 4 votes.

At 7:55pm Allie switches from MJ to Weim, putting Stagg back in the lead. Less than a minute later Cray switches from Stagg to Weim, creating a 4-way tie.

And then of course Cray brought it down to a 3-way tie like 3 minutes later or whatever.

So yes, the lynch train for MJ started later than the others.

In the last hour before lynch close, the following people were online (i.e. made at least one post) - Cray, Raf, Weim, Pip, Jboo, AM, Genny, Skimble, Allie

Players who did not make at least one appearance within an hour before lynch close - Stagg, Cheat, Bryndi, Dolph, Snowy, Kata, MJ, Sporty

But you're telling me not one wolf was online who would switch their vote at the last minute to save MJ/me (or you for that matter)? Absurd.

 

[SportPonies]

Frankly, I don't often see AM this insistent on things unless she has a pretty good reason. Does that make capri a wolf? Nah. Does that make AM village? Also nah. I agree with capri's statement above that AM is lynchable. I also think she's made some good points with this post:

First lynch vote for MJ was at 10:47am. At this time Stagg was in the lead with a bunch of people at 1 lynch vote each.

Pippy ties with Stagg at 1:35pm.

MJ casts a vote at 3:43pm, disappears until the next day.

5:56pm, Snowy ties with Pippy and Stagg at 3 votes. At 7:21pm, Snowy falls back to 2 votes.

6:26pm AM adds a vote on MJ, making him/me a somewhat viable lynch candidate.

At 7:41pm Allie lynches MJ, 3 votes to Stagg's 4.

At 7:50pm Weim lynches MJ, ties with Stagg at 4 votes.

At 7:55pm Allie switches from MJ to Weim, putting Stagg back in the lead. Less than a minute later Cray switches from Stagg to Weim, creating a 4-way tie.

And then of course Cray brought it down to a 3-way tie like 3 minutes later or whatever.

So yes, the lynch train for MJ started later than the others.

In the last hour before lynch close, the following people were online (i.e. made at least one post) - Cray, Raf, Weim, Pip, Jboo, AM, Genny, Skimble, Allie

Players who did not make at least one appearance within an hour before lynch close - Stagg, Cheat, Bryndi, Dolph, Snowy, Kata, MJ, Sporty

But you're telling me not one wolf was online who would switch their vote at the last minute to save MJ/me (or you for that matter)? Absurd.

I also think this is a dangerous post:

Mason should probably claim early so that they can be cleared, btw.

Because if a wolf is lynched today, that exposes a cleared villager for wolves to kill tonight.

I have to drive back to school today (~4 hours depending on how driving through Chicago goes), so I'm gonna think about this more during my drive and check in once I'm unpacked. Did I miss something somewhere where people explain why Weim is wolfy? Besides the whole tie thing at the beginning of the game.

 

[PippyPony]

I also think this is a dangerous post:

Because if a wolf is lynched today, that exposes a cleared villager for wolves to kill tonight.

Um, what?

You realize today is lylo, yes?

 

[PippyPony]

It's better to have a cleared villager at this point because it narrows down the list of wolves

Which is like, kinda useful for finding said wolves

 

[allieh8607]

I also think this is a dangerous post:

Because if a wolf is lynched today, that exposes a cleared villager for wolves to kill tonight.

Meh. At this point, I'd much rather reveal it before a wolf has a chance to lie and claim it themselves lol I also have had my fair share of people thinking I was sketchy so may as well clear that up now so we can focus elsewhere.

So Skim and I had a player list going in our PM and right before she died she had narrowed it down to Capri, Sporty, and Genny. She was most likely going to vote for genny today.

 

[PippyPony]

In the last hour before lynch close, the following people were online (i.e. made at least one post) - Cray, Raf, Weim, Pip, Jboo, AM, Genny, Skimble, Allie

Players who did not make at least one appearance within an hour before lynch close - Stagg, Cheat, Bryndi, Dolph, Snowy, Kata, MJ, Sporty

But you're telling me not one wolf was online who would switch their vote at the last minute to save MJ/me (or you for that matter)? Absurd.

No, I'm saying I don't know, because I am not in wolf chat 😛

I agree with you that it would have made sense to break that tie, but I feel like what you are saying is that it's an impossibility that they would let the tie sit there. It's not an impossibility unless you are privy to what the wolves were doing.

Maybe MJ already regretted signing up and he was an early pseudo-bus. Maybe they were frozen and didn't know what to do. Maybe they didn't actually realize what was going on. Maybe they are risky wolves who intentionally decided to do something pretty stupid. Maybe you are correct and we are all village.

But the only way to know for sure what happened is if you are a wolf.

 

[capri1722]

No, I'm saying I don't know, because I am not in wolf chat 😛

I agree with you that it would have made sense to break that tie, but I feel like what you are saying is that it's an impossibility that they would let the tie sit there. It's not an impossibility unless you are privy to what the wolves were doing.

Maybe MJ already regretted signing up and he was an early pseudo-bus. Maybe they were frozen and didn't know what to do. Maybe they didn't actually realize what was going on. Maybe they are risky wolves who intentionally decided to do something pretty stupid. Maybe you are correct and we are all village.

But the only way to know for sure what happened is if you are a wolf.

Ah okay I see what you're saying. But I'd like to think the wolves are smarter than that. And not as lazy as village.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Ah okay I see what you're saying. But I'd like to think the wolves are smarter than that. And not as lazy as village.

Why are you saying the village is lazy?