CHOOSE YOUR OWWN III - Game Thread

[WildZoo]

---

Members do not see this ad.

Everyone else is floating in various parts of my neutrals or below.

🥺

 

[WildZoo]

I have a theory about Wonder, making the goo claim to draw heat off Chaos and put more focus on Lumi. Combined with the Judas claim, I could see this being a plan hatched in Wolf chat. Overall I need to see more from Wonder.

Oh I like this

 

[supershorty]

I have a theory about Wonder, making the goo claim to draw heat off Chaos and put more focus on Lumi. Combined with the Judas claim, I could see this being a plan hatched in Wolf chat. Overall I need to see more from Wonder.

I'm intrigued by this. So in this theory, you think Wonder could be w/w with Chaos - but what do you think of the goo claim, then? A lie? Used for ability instead? Something else?

 

[supershorty]

"I'm going to go to bed," she said optimistically, ages ago.

 

[Zenge142]

Oh I like this

Like, in my mind Wonder’s only real contribution was giving village a good alternative to Chaos, at a time when the Judas claim would have made village willing to look for somewhere else to vote.

 

[alissa14]

Hands Lawpy a towel

Am I supposed to imagine this the way I’m imagining this

 

[WildZoo]

My only reservation is that I am pretty sure I always think she's wolfing lol

I might be understating this a bit. She gets misvoted, and early, a lot when she plays. I know I've participated in this multiple times. I have shot her incorrectly at least once when I was a vig. So it's really hard for me to feel confident in pushing her early.

 

[Zenge142]

I'm intrigued by this. So in this theory, you think Wonder could be w/w with Chaos - but what do you think of the goo claim, then? A lie? Used for ability instead? Something else?

W/W.

Potentially a outright lie or more likely used for ability. I would expect Wonder to know outright that Lumi was lying about about the goo.

And maybe Chaos felt safe picking it for the fake claim, knowing his packmate had it in their roles.

 

[supershorty]

Eh, I'll try this and see how it feels.

Contingency yeet Wonder

 

[supershorty]

Like, in my mind Wonder’s only real contribution was giving village a good alternative to Chaos, at a time when the Judas claim would have made village willing to look for somewhere else to vote.

W/W.

Potentially a outright lie or more likely used for ability. I would expect Wonder to know outright that Lumi was lying about about the goo.

And maybe Chaos felt safe picking it for the fake claim, knowing his packmate had it in their roles.

I'm interested to hear @LuminousLag's thoughts on this whenever they come back.

 

[WildZoo]

posts just to see if shorty is still awake

 

[supershorty]

posts just to see if shorty is still awake

I’m brushing my teeth hi

 

[WildZoo]

I’m brushing my teeth hi

Hello

 

[Zenge142]

posts just to see if shorty is still awake

Can you talk me through your genny vote?

 

[WildZoo]

Can you talk me through your genny vote?

Here is my 1am summary/paraphrase

genny: fluff post fluff post fluff post, one content post that is just an offhand disagreement with someone about one of alley's posts. No follow up.

Dubz: hmm. *Vote genny*

genny: lots of very funny posts. Makes Dubz laugh. Content still minimal. When chaos is already leading (I think?), says some prophetic stuff about how he could have a great one shot scum role or something. Joins as #6 on the vote, I think.

Dubz: hmmm. *Says a lot of things that end up being wrong BUT THE LOGIC WAS SOUND* and then mentions scum might like voting for chaos

genny: "If they vote for chaos that would be bussing"

Dubz: what, game is multiball, unless you're in a big pack

genny: I want to vote you now

Dubz: Why

genny: *exits*

 

[supershorty]

W/W.

Potentially a outright lie or more likely used for ability. I would expect Wonder to know outright that Lumi was lying about about the goo.

And maybe Chaos felt safe picking it for the fake claim, knowing his packmate had it in their roles.

Okay but wait
Because I like your theory and think most of it makes sense, but Chaos’ response to Lumi’s counterclaim doesn’t make a ton of sense if he knew that Lumi was lying, which he would in this scenario.

 

[supershorty]

Okay but wait
Because I like your theory and think most of it makes sense, but Chaos’ response to Lumi’s counterclaim doesn’t make a ton of sense if he knew that Lumi was lying, which he would in this scenario.

Like, why would he just roll over with the “well, frick” instead of pushing harder that Lumi was lying? He’d know they wouldn’t flip as the goo, and a good portion of the thread was clearly willing to vote there. That would have probably had a better outcome than what happened.

 

[WildZoo]

@Viscernable @Lawpy @potentialsheltervet

Current POE?

 

[supershorty]

I’m trying to think of a scenario where that would make sense for a w/w Chaos/Wonder to do in the game state as it was, but I don’t see much of a downside at all for Chaos to just bury Lumi if he knew for sure they were lying.

 

[supershorty]

Contingency unyeet Wonder

I need to think about this more when it’s not past my bedtime.

 

[WildZoo]

That "Well, frick" was such a pure reaction

 

[Zenge142]

Okay but wait
Because I like your theory and think most of it makes sense, but Chaos’ response to Lumi’s counterclaim doesn’t make a ton of sense if he knew that Lumi was lying, which he would in this scenario.

I’ve thought about that. It’s not a deal breaker. I mean Chaos can’t exactly say “you’re lying, my packmate is the goo!” And with Wonder having not posted yet, the best choice would be to pivot to the Judas claim and fill Wolf Chat with alarm bells for Wonder about how to handle it, which is what Wonder’s first post was.

Like, why would he just roll over with the “well, frick” instead of pushing harder that Lumi was lying? He’d know they wouldn’t flip as the goo, and a good portion of the thread was clearly willing to vote there. That would have probably had a better outcome than what happened.

Eh. That’s pretty speculative about what a player would choose to do in the moment, with hindsight being 20/20. If the tin foil is true, it’s hard to know what exactly went through his head. Maybe he thought he got Wonder’s choice wrong for the fake claim or something? Maybe just knowing he was lying and being called out on it made him post an initial gut reaction instead of thinking it through? Who knows.

It’s definitely a point worth considering against the theory for sure. It’s not an air tight tin foil. But I think there’s possible explanations.

 

[supershorty]

I’ve thought about that. It’s not a deal breaker. I mean Chaos can’t exactly say “you’re lying, my packmate is the goo!” And with Wonder having not posted yet, the best choice would be to pivot to the Judas claim and fill Wolf Chat with alarm bells for Wonder about how to handle it, which is what Wonder’s first post was.

No, but if a packmate had that card anyway, why not just stick to his own claim and then they just swap claims for the remainder of the game? Why wouldn’t he just double down on him being the goo since he’d know for sure that Lumi wasn’t, and then coordinate claims with Wonder whenever she came on?

 

[supershorty]

Wonder hadn’t posted at all when that went down, IIRC, so it’s not like he’d have to worry about contradicting her.

 

[supershorty]

I keep trying to make an argument to myself that something like that could happen for distancing/to make Wonder look better, but it’s overridden by my not seeing a downside to Chaos just burying Lumi in this scenario.

 

[WildZoo]

unless Lumi is also packmate

 

[Zenge142]

and then they just swap claims for the remainder of the game?

Both of Chaos’s non discarded roles were scum though.

Why wouldn’t he just double down on him being the goo since he’d know for sure that Lumi wasn’t, and then coordinate claims with Wonder whenever she came on?

It’s a question. But it think it falls into a category of questions that are basically saying

“I would have done it this way. Why didn’t you do it the way I would have?”

And short of asking him what his through process was, we aren’t going to get an answer.

I’m saying just because you can come up with a more game theory optimal strategy of how he should have played in that situation, doesn’t mean it’s how he would have or possibly did handle it.

It’s the same reason why behavioral economics is a more reliable model of the real world instead of neoclassical economics. People don’t always make the “game theory optimal”, or most logical play.

 

[WildZoo]

It would satisfy my question of why Chaos would feel safe going with the goo claim, along with making sense of his statement about not thinking anyone would pick it (didn't make a ton of sense at the time since he knew it could have been used for aff instead of ability). If he had a knee jerk "Well, frick" reaction to Lumi's claim, he would then have had to figure out how to explain why he lied.

The part that gets messy is like...why did chaos claim it instead of leaving it for Wonder to claim herself? Why make that move in the first place?

 

[WildZoo]

Dammit my pinky hit post

 

[Zenge142]

I keep trying to make an argument to myself that something like that could happen for distancing/to make Wonder look better, but it’s overridden by my not seeing a downside to Chaos just burying Lumi in this scenario.

I think it’s pretty hard to assume it would play out in Chaos’s favor.

Chaos claims Goo.
Lumi claims Goo.
Chaos says Lumi is lying.
Who does village believe?
From my perspective, without a compelling reason not to, I’m more inclined to believe Lumi, because why on earth would a wolf!Lumi counter claim Chaos there? If Lumi was wrong and Chaos was right, then Wolf!Lumi guaranteed themselves a D2 yeet.

So if village, following that logic, is more inclined to believe Lumi over Chaos, then Chaos fighting Lumi, even knowing Lumi is lying, doesn’t end well for Chaos.

 

[WildZoo]

I am going to bed now before my other fingers start rebelling

 

[WildZoo]

The part that gets messy is like...why did chaos claim it instead of leaving it for Wonder to claim herself? Why make that move in the first place

He claimed to use it for aff too so it wouldn't even come with the benefit of discouraging night actions.

Okay now I'm going to bed

 

[Zenge142]

The part that gets messy is like...why did chaos claim it instead of leaving it for Wonder to claim herself? Why make that move in the first place?

We’re talking about the Chaos who claimed to seer Bob and then bussed him into the ground.

I wouldn’t put it past him to snag a teammate’s ability pick, when his teammate hadn’t even shown up to post yet.

 

[WildZoo]

We’re talking about the Chaos who claimed to seer Bob and then bussed him into the ground.

I wouldn’t put it past him to snag a teammate’s ability pick, when his teammate hadn’t even shown up to post yet.

That was after Bob was already under suspicion though. It seemed wild and crazy at the time, but really he was getting ahead of a vote that he thought was happening anyway.

 

[Zenge142]

That was after Bob was already under suspicion though. It seemed wild and crazy at the time, but really he was getting ahead of a vote that he thought was happening anyway.

Fair but still, in this case we’re talking about what’s safe to fake claim, and taking Wonder’s Goo to claim on thread might be something he would see as fair game?

 

[WildZoo]

Fair but still, in this case we’re talking about what’s safe to fake claim, and taking Wonder’s Goo to claim on thread might be something he would see as fair game?

I just have a hard time wrapping my head around him doing that and leaving her to have to figure out a fake claim too. Why force both wolves to lie when you don't have to?

The bussing in OWWlympics was a high risk tactic but reward was also high. They had already lost pippy and were likely to be voted out in quick succession themselves. He got himself from there to cleared by burying Bob.

I just don't see the same high reward here unless the plan was always for Wonder to counterclaim and therefore try to clear one of them. Which is possible but feels like 3 steps beyond what he did in OWWlympics.

 

[WildZoo]

I'm just getting stuck on whether this scenario is probable, even if it is theoretically possible. It answers some of my questions but then raises more.

And now I can't stop thinking about it lol

 

[WildZoo]

It's also predicated on Wonder actually deciding to be wolf black goo which is in and of itself a hard pill to swallow unless her wolf ability option would have literally tanked village somehow.

 

[WildZoo]

The only wolf roles I can see that would have been awful enough to maybe decide to choose wolf black goo over village aff with the wolf ability would be Miller and gravedigger. Which, if the poor thing got village Miller, black goo, and one of those as her cards...wow that is some terrible luck lol

 

[Lawpy]

One partially unfused Lawpy is here

 

[supershorty]

I think it’s pretty hard to assume it would play out in Chaos’s favor.

Chaos claims Goo.
Lumi claims Goo.
Chaos says Lumi is lying.
Who does village believe?
From my perspective, without a compelling reason not to, I’m more inclined to believe Lumi, because why on earth would a wolf!Lumi counter claim Chaos there? If Lumi was wrong and Chaos was right, then Wolf!Lumi guaranteed themselves a D2 yeet.

So if village, following that logic, is more inclined to believe Lumi over Chaos, then Chaos fighting Lumi, even knowing Lumi is lying, doesn’t end well for Chaos.

I agree with this, but I want to look at some timing stuff once I’m at my computer. Because the thing is, with your second paragraph, that while I agree with you and it’s very much factoring into my read of Lumi, the thread as a whole has been gunning for them, I think partially because their tone and approach was offputting to people.

I mean, look at alley and some of the others, who are pretty much refusing to even consider the (IMO more likely) possibility of a town 5D chess move there. alley doesn’t even want to entertain the notion of it, she just wants to bury them because “lying bad.” Without thinking about that if Lumi’s claims are true, it’s a move that makes sense for a decent town PR to make to buy themselves more time to use it.

Of course, you can make that last sentence an argument for a scum PR as well, but then that goes back to your point of why it wouldn’t make as much sense for scum to do that. But then again, I’m a little stuck on the “why on earth would a wolf!Lumi counterclaim Chaos there” because regardless of aff, Lumi DID counterclaim Chaos there and apparently it was a lie, which makes the point of “if they were wrong, it guarantees them a D2 yeet” less strong.

I think? Am I awake enough for this?

I want to look at Lumi’s thread entrance again and see what the overall temperature was toward them relative to when the claim and counterclaim happened.

 

[Viscernable]

I'm feeling better about genny with her interactions with Dubz.

Mostly I feel worse about Dubz because it seems very unusual for her to take a strong stand on genny so early, and I don’t agree with what she’s saying about genny. I would very much expect her to give it at least another day for The Genny Way to appear with genny playing imo pretty much to her usual standards, even with more content than some games where Dubz has been like “not seeing the genny way but too early to tell”

 

[Lawpy]

I think? Am I awake enough for this?

Unclear. Hold pls

 

[Viscernable]

@Viscernable @LuminousLag Statistics lovers... This one's on you

Will statistics for treats

 

[supershorty]

Both of Chaos’s non discarded roles were scum though.

Oh, I see what you’re saying.

 

[supershorty]

Then I don’t know why shorty. Time?

I’m still perplexed by this response to my asking alissa for clarification.

 

[WildZoo]

I agree with this, but I want to look at some timing stuff once I’m at my computer. Because the thing is, with your second paragraph, that while I agree with you and it’s very much factoring into my read of Lumi, the thread as a whole has been gunning for them, I think partially because their tone and approach was offputting to people.

I mean, look at alley and some of the others, who are pretty much refusing to even consider the (IMO more likely) possibility of a town 5D chess move there. alley doesn’t even want to entertain the notion of it, she just wants to bury them because “lying bad.” Without thinking about that if Lumi’s claims are true, it’s a move that makes sense for a decent town PR to make to buy themselves more time to use it.

Of course, you can make that last sentence an argument for a scum PR as well, but then that goes back to your point of why it wouldn’t make as much sense for scum to do that. But then again, I’m a little stuck on the “why on earth would a wolf!Lumi counterclaim Chaos there” because regardless of aff, Lumi DID counterclaim Chaos there and apparently it was a lie, which makes the point of “if they were wrong, it guarantees them a D2 yeet” less strong.

I think? Am I awake enough for this?

I want to look at Lumi’s thread entrance again and see what the overall temperature was toward them relative to when the claim and counterclaim happened.

The thing is, if Lumi is telling the truth about not knowing that some of the cards were only present in the game once, they wouldn't have known they were counterclaiming chaos.

Plus they also said they hadn't read anything when they claimed the goo. So double wouldn't have known they were counterclaiming.

 

[supershorty]

The thing is, if Lumi is telling the truth about not knowing that some of the cards were only present in the game once, they wouldn't have known they were counterclaiming chaos.

Plus they also said they hadn't read anything when they claimed the goo. So double wouldn't have known they were counterclaiming.

Okay, but now I’m circled back around to not understanding Chaos’ reaction there if we’re in a world where he knew Lumi was lying.

I’ve been stuck on this train of thought all night, it’s just not clicking into place for me.

The rest of Zenge’s theory makes sense to me and would explain some of the things I had questions about, but I’m really struggling to make this part make sense in my head.

 

[WildZoo]

Mostly I feel worse about Dubz because it seems very unusual for her to take a strong stand on genny so early, and I don’t agree with what she’s saying about genny. I would very much expect her to give it at least another day for The Genny Way to appear with genny playing imo pretty much to her usual standards, even with more content than some games where Dubz has been like “not seeing the genny way but too early to tell”

Context is important. This isn't a game where she posted 5 times and was otherwise completely absent or seemed like she was behind on the thread, and so I couldn't get any sort of read yet.

 

[WildZoo]

Okay, but now I’m circled back around to not understanding Chaos’ reaction there if we’re in a world where he knew Lumi was lying.

I’ve been stuck on this train of thought all night, it’s just not clicking into place for me.

The rest of Zenge’s theory makes sense to me and would explain some of the things I had questions about, but I’m really struggling to make this part make sense in my head.

I'm struggling with different parts of it lol But I think we'll just keep going in circles. At the moment to me it feels like something that we're kind of trying to force to fit the situation, rather than it actually fitting organically. So I'm inclined to focus elsewhere, though I do still want to hear more from Wonder.