I'm on the list too. Calling them is of no help, they said it varies year by year and would not give me last year's numbers. I've seen the number 60% being tossed out there, but i'm not sure how true it is. In the past 8 years no one has made it off the regular wait list. Looking at other school's waitlists, the maximum deviation has been around plus/minus 30% in the past ten years. I don't know how true that is of upstate...but if it is true of upstate, the most optimistic number would be an average of 70% getting off the waitlist, with the number varying from 40% to 100% (thereby no one getting off the normal list). So 60% does sound reasonable.
The more relevant question is how are the events of today affecting people's decision of public vs private medical schools compared to previous years. One may say the easing of the recession will promote more kids to spend the extra money for private. Or one may say the uncertainty of doctor salaries under Obama's plans for reform may discourage kids from taking out big loans, along with the current credit crunch making loans harder to get. Enough time has passed to get an idea of what this year is like, but the AAMC will not release the needed data. If only they were a government agency subject to FOIL.