2020-2021 Waitlist Support Thread

Discover Your Odds of Getting into Medical School
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Meowster007 said:
I am just asking xD I really don't know like I understand the logic but I am trying to figure out as a system how this works!
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Now my newly upgraded neurotic brain came up with two logics
1) schools did under-accept (compared to previous cycles), to the point where they are fully expecting to utilize waitlist more. -> this will probably be true for low tier and some mid tier schools especially since it’s impossible for schools to know an applicant’s cycle results so admissions probably know that applicants will drop their schools eventually

2) schools did not under accept enough, which will lead to having more applicants with just one acceptance. This may freeze the expected waitlist movement if many applicants do not have multiple options to choose from.

i don’t think we will know until some sort of data gets published in the future. What I’m thinking is that rule 1&2 are both somewhat true and at this point, we just gotta PRAY that the schools that we are waitlisted at will have a significant waitlist movement
 
Julatteluver said:
Now my newly upgraded neurotic brain came up with two logics
1) schools did under-accept (compared to previous cycles), to the point where they are fully expecting to utilize waitlist more. -> this will probably be true for low tier and some mid tier schools especially since it’s impossible for schools to know an applicant’s cycle results so admissions probably know that applicants will drop their schools eventually

2) schools did not under accept enough, which will lead to having more applicants with just one acceptance. This may freeze the expected waitlist movement if many applicants do not have multiple options to choose from.

i don’t think we will know until some sort of data gets published in the future. What I’m thinking is that rule 1&2 are both somewhat true and at this point, we just gotta PRAY that the schools that we are waitlisted at will have a significant waitlist movement
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See I was thinking all of #2... didn't think too much about #1 soooo I hope #1 comes in clutch! (more so than 2)
 
benzodiazepinacolada said:
I guess I’m confused now... wouldn’t the need to narrow down acceptances to one lead to some students coming off the WL due to people rescinding their A? Like of course there will be more A’s withdrawn over the next couple weeks in May [in total], but in terms of a single-day movement, April 30 (and May 1st or the following day) would be the biggest fallout in terms of immediate movement d/t the deadline.
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Not necessarily.

On 4/30, people have to select one school as PTE. They are SUPPOSED to withdraw from the other schools, but many people don't bother. They expect the schools to figure it out when they see they were not selected as PTE.

Some schools, upon seeing this, unilaterally rescind their As, and that's that. Other schools take the time to communicate with the candidate, reminding them of the deadline, and ask them what they are doing. This could take days to play out.

In addition, depending on their process, most schools do not have a list of candidates prepared to immediately call off the WL. Some schools meet to make decisions. Others try to match calls to the profile of who withdrew, etc. This takes time.

Could take a day, could take a few days. It would actually be pretty extraordinary if the movement caused by the 4/30 PTE deadline actually occurred on 4/30. It could be that weekend. It could also be the following week, or even the week after. As was said before, it will probably be in waves, starting soon after 4/30, but not necessarily on that day.
 
Meowster007 said:
See I was thinking all of #2... didn't think too much about #1 soooo I hope #1 comes in clutch! (more so than 2)
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I think 1) logic has to play a role since many highly wanted applicants received a ton of IIs and there was no financial burden since everything was virtual. I guess one thing is that we have no idea how many star applicants there are. Depending on that number, the influence of 1) logic will be determined
 
Julatteluver said:
Now my newly upgraded neurotic brain came up with two logics
1) schools did under-accept (compared to previous cycles), to the point where they are fully expecting to utilize waitlist more. -> this will probably be true for low tier and some mid tier schools especially since it’s impossible for schools to know an applicant’s cycle results so admissions probably know that applicants will drop their schools eventually

2) schools did not under accept enough, which will lead to having more applicants with just one acceptance. This may freeze the expected waitlist movement if many applicants do not have multiple options to choose from.

i don’t think we will know until some sort of data gets published in the future. What I’m thinking is that rule 1&2 are both somewhat true and at this point, we just gotta PRAY that the schools that we are waitlisted at will have a significant waitlist movement
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See the thing that I’m thinking is about how last cycle the general WL movement seemed to be “normal” compared to the lower WL movement the cycle where the CYMS tool was unveiled. So med schools had to have fixed something in this process to see relatively the same movement as before the cycle with the new rules..
 
benzodiazepinacolada said:
See the thing that I’m thinking is about how last cycle the general WL movement seemed to be “normal” compared to the lower WL movement the cycle where the CYMS tool was unveiled. So med schools had to have fixed something in this process to see relatively the same movement as before the cycle with the new rules..
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The thing is, nothing about this cycle was normal and I don’t think there was much med schools could do to embrace the impact of COVID. But I think the general idea is that schools are expecting more movement right?....? Right....? 😳
 
NoEyeEyeGuy said:
i still think these guys running this process are Professionals, and they've probably accounted for variables we do not even know that exist. therefore i think movement will be basically the same.
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Yes I agree but at the same time all we can do is ✨hope✨ (Ofc send your LOIs if you guys can then hope)
 
Also, I beg everyone not to be discouraged by the relative lack of movement so far. Please keep in mind that virtually all schools over accept. At this point in the cycle, they really need to have open seats to be comfortable making calls off the WL. So, depending on the school, they need quite a few people to drop As before they start pulling from the WL.

More importantly, keep in mind that the vast majority of people with As have less than 4, so dropping to 3 by 4/15 just does not create a ton of movement like dropping to 1 on 4/30 will. Also, as people learn more and more about the CYMS system, they are starting to clue into the fact that there is zero consequence to not dropping to 3 by 4/15, so I think fewer people are actually doing so as compared to the past 2 years. There are no published stats to back this up, but I think it's a reasonable explanation for the little movement we are seeing so far, which I do NOT think is a leading indicator for anything going forward.
 
benzodiazepinacolada said:
@KnightDoc, thanks for your help. You offer the perfect balance of optimism and realism which is...okay depending on the day and the particular mood that I’m in hahaha. For real though, thank you.
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Totally my pleasure!!! 🙂 As you know, I have no skin in this game (the past two years have been dry runs for my upcoming cycle), so I have the gift of objectivity. I don't envy you, and fully realize how exhausting and nerve wracking this must be, but, based on my observations the past two cycles, I honestly believe things are going to work out for most of you. A LOT of people, at many schools, are accepted off the WL every year.
 
When schools release their total accepted vs total matriculated, does that total accepted amount include acceptances offered to people previously on the WL?
 
paul30 said:
When schools release their total accepted vs total matriculated, does that total accepted amount include acceptances offered to people previously on the WL?
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Curious- where do you find total accepted vs total matriculated?
 
Meowster007 said:
Okay so we are depending on A's to be withdrawn, and there are less A's handed out... does that mean this cycle will have limited WL mvmt or will the chains get rolling like usual but we just waiting on those specific peeps with multiple A's?
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You are always waiting on people with multiple As to create any WL movement. ;-)
 
Julatteluver said:
I think 1) logic has to play a role since many highly wanted applicants received a ton of IIs and there was no financial burden since everything was virtual. I guess one thing is that we have no idea how many star applicants there are. Depending on that number, the influence of 1) logic will be determined
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Not sure if you mean ‘Highly Wanted’=‘Highly Competitive’?
If so, say there are probably 3% highly competitive applicants which is smaller than the T20 Matriculant total; so this year say 1800 vs 3000....
Now of those 3%/1800 each one probably applied to 16ish of the T20 schools in various combinations. It is quite likely that each of the T20 schools will try to get the most of the highly competitive applicants as possible. Assume they have some ability to discern within these 1800 applications, they earth say will go after the same top half or 900-1800 candidates providing Acceptances which leads to a further gap from the total needed across all T20 schools. However, it isn’t until they look at the PTE results on May 1 that the collective T20 actually know the shortfall for their class (and AMCAS can actually measure how manny unique PTE As remain at the collective T20 giving a number that I’ve estimated to be between 900-1800. The Wait list will then begin the whole cascade. First still jockeying for the remaining And next set of highly competitive appocantions, including applicants changing their minds within the T20, and then progressing beyond.
 
proudofmykids said:
Not sure if you mean ‘Highly Wanted’=‘Highly Competitive’?
If so, say there are probably 3% highly competitive applicants which is smaller than the T20 Matriculant total; so this year say 1800 vs 3000....
Now of those 3%/1800 each one probably applied to 16ish of the T20 schools in various combinations. It is quite likely that each of the T20 schools will try to get the most of the highly competitive applicants as possible. Assume they have some ability to discern within these 1800 applications, they earth say will go after the same top half or 900-1800 candidates providing Acceptances which leads to a further gap from the total needed across all T20 schools. However, it isn’t until they look at the PTE results on May 1 that the collective T20 actually know the shortfall for their class (and AMCAS can actually measure how manny unique PTE As remain at the collective T20 giving a number that I’ve estimated to be between 900-1800. The Wait list will then begin the whole cascade. First still jockeying for the remaining And next set of highly competitive appocantions, including applicants changing their minds within the T20, and then progressing beyond.
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Sorry, I guess I was unclear. I meant highly wanted as in applicants who received 5+ IIs with multiple acceptances now (not considering school ranks). My thought process was that since nobody needed to travel for interviews, people could attend all the interviews that they wouldn’t have done if interviews were not virtual. So I guess highly competitive people can be a part of the ‘highly wanted’ applicants, but they are not the same group when I mentioned it.
 
Julatteluver said:
Sorry, I guess I was unclear. I meant highly wanted as in applicants who received 5+ IIs with multiple acceptances now (not considering school ranks). My thought process was that since nobody needed to travel for interviews, people could attend all the interviews that they wouldn’t have done if interviews were not virtual. So I guess highly competitive people can be a part of the ‘highly wanted’ applicants, but they are not the same group when I mentioned it.
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as you go down the ranking list, there is likely less overlap of common schools due to the bell curve widening for total applicants at some highly-wanted level, so unique applicants are likely a higher percentage of total matriculant cumulative spots. At these schools, trickle-down openings are also often caused by trickle-up movement.
 
gonnif said:
save you from what? your own fear, uncertainty, and doubt? from the logic and speculation can make any possible scenario seem possible if you you think long enough, hard enough, and neurotically enough about it? In the "old" traffic rules, I wouldnt have expected waitlist movement until mid-May then a two smaller waves in June and finally dribbles in July. There can be WL acceptances up until classes start as there are always a few planned matriculants either thru personal, health, or administrative reasons, who sudden cant attend. Schools will fill every seat even if that means calling someone on a Friday to start class Monday. So for some of you, this cycle may last until August.

OK so you want to know what I think is going to happen? Ask me next Fall when I read the the after cycle reports from AMCAS. Until then it is all speculation that means "drek," which is an archaic technical term.
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Thanks- I wanted to know your thoughts mainly when I asked for help. I appreciate the response.
 
Earthworm Slim said:
I believe so, yes.
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This^^^^. When the cycle is over, there are only two outcomes, A and R. WLs that become As are counted as such. Otherwise, the outcome is R.

Notice, there is no WL number reported as an outcome anywhere, because it's not an actual outcome! The WL is nothing more than a list from which people receive As this time of year. An A received now from a WL is counted exactly the same as an A received last October when schools report numbers at the end of the cycle.
 
can anyone here help critque my letter of intent? i'd be happy to return the favor!
 
Anyone know the general consensus about the “strategy” for 1 A and 1 WL? Is it better to not PTE in order to get off the WL or is it recommended to show the school that you have an acceptance? Seems most people think it doesn’t change anything regardless but I just wanted to confirm with you all 🙂
 
bluecar06 said:
Anyone know the general consensus about the “strategy” for 1 A and 1 WL? Is it better to not PTE in order to get off the WL or is it recommended to show the school that you have an acceptance? Seems most people think it doesn’t change anything regardless but I just wanted to confirm with you all 🙂
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By the time the WL school can see you're PTEd after April 30th, your singular A would likely require you to PTE to not have your A rescinded. There's no strategy here.
 
armaragon said:
The worst part is knowing that if you get off the waitlist, it would be one of the best and incredible days of your life., but with the knowledge that you very well may not get off any waitlists and will never get that email/call...
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Which is why I wish med schools would let us know some sort of probability of getting in to their waitlisted applicants 🥲Although I understand the complex nature of the waitlist pool, having to wait for extra 2-3 months not knowing the odds of getting in is just mind boggling
 
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ChemEtoMD23 said:
I’ve also been wondering whether there’s any advantage to not selecting PTE if one is hoping to get off other WLs.

I’m not sure about other schools, but my one A doesn’t require students to PTE by April 30. The only requirement (besides dropping down to one A on April 30) is to CTE by May 31.
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I've given this some thought, and honestly just cannot believe that it would matter this early in the WL cycle. I can see how, a few weeks before classes begin, it might be easier for a school to call someone who has not PTEd anywhere, with the expectation that they will drop everything and come running, as opposed to having to give them time to make a decision, and then possibly wash, rinse and repeat while the clock is ticking.

In May, though, I would think, if anything, being PTE somewhere makes you appear more attractive than holding zero As. That said, it's totally your call and I don't think it would make a difference one way or the other. Believe me, a ton of people, all over the country, are going to be PTE somewhere on 4/30 while waiting for a call from a preferred school. Many of them will receive such calls in the following weeks. They will not be passed over because they are PTE at a school.
 
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I thought I would join in the misery now that I've heard back from all my II's. 4 MD Interviews --> 4 WLs. One is High Priority List, one school advertises a lot of WL movement...but I'll believe it when I see it. Good luck everyone!
 
Mre1123 said:
I thought I would join in the misery now that I've heard back from all my II's. 4 MD Interviews --> 4 WLs. One is High Priority List, one school advertises a lot of WL movement...but I'll believe it when I see it. Good luck everyone!
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I am right there with you: 3 total WLs, 1 being HPWL (whatever that entails), no As. Just grateful for the opportunities and living on a prayer.
 
ChemEtoMD23 said:
I’ve also been wondering whether there’s any advantage to not selecting PTE if one is hoping to get off other WLs.

I’m not sure about other schools, but my one A doesn’t require students to PTE by April 30. The only requirement (besides dropping down to one A on April 30) is to CTE by May 31.
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Hi, just to clarify, at this school you'd still be required to drop all other As on April 30th, but aren't required to use the PTE tool? So essentially the same action of commitment required but you don't have to broadcast it to other schools by using PTE?
 
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