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The answer is that there is no answer! You are correct -- two years ago, the speculation was that fewer initial As, due to the adcoms' lack of visibility under the new rules, would lead to more WL movement. It never happened, probably because fewer initial As also led to fewer people holding multiple As, which actually led to LESS WL movement, which partially or totally offset the expected increase in WL movement caused by fewer initial As. 🙂This question was on a thread from a couple years ago when the new Traffic Rules were put out, but the question never got answered. I still see speculation regarding this topic in more recent threads. Does anyone have an answer here?
This year, the speculation is that virtual IIs led to superstars attending IIs they would have skipped in the past, which will lead to more of them holding more multiple As, which will lead to increased WL movement when they are forced to reduce to one A. Will it actually happen? Nobody knows, until it does. Or doesn't.
You can drive yourself crazy trying to reason through all the possibilities. What you can take to the bank is that, when orientation rolls around, every seat will be filled, and nobody will be sitting in more than one of them.
As long as you are on at least one WL, you are still in the game. The more WLs, the better your chances to score at least one A when it's all over.
It's easy for me to tell you to try to relax, since I didn't apply this year, but, I've been closely following this since 2019 in anticipation of applying this year. My plans changed due to COVID, but I will be applying next year, so I do kinda sorta have some idea what I am talking about. Trust me, it's been a very long year, and you are very near the finish line. You will have MUCH more visibility into your situation a mere two months from now. Between now and then you can either drive yourself crazy, or, you can try to relax.