Time To Get a WWatch - Game Thread

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Truenamer said:
Well, I mostly haven't been pushing you very hard because I'm not convinced that you're a wolf. If I had to decide in this moment, I'm still leaning towards you not being one.
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You're correct.

Just based on previous experience, I'd expect the "actually Nate could be a wolf" turn by now. Granted, you made that exact turn yesterday (I was in your towns and you got pressure about that because I was fairly consensus POE at the time, and then you reconsidered and voted me later on in the phase). But then after your own wagon took off you reconsidered me again and didn't come back to it despite pressure. So that + the lack of push on me today is the piece that doesn't fit for me in a w!True world. I mean, it CAN be. It's not like my wagon has needed your help today. But.

If that's all correct and our wagons were t/t, that changes a lot about where I would expect wolf votes to be (I would expect them to be more spread out).
 
NateTheLesser said:
You're correct.

Just based on previous experience, I'd expect the "actually Nate could be a wolf" turn by now. Granted, you made that exact turn yesterday (I was in your towns and you got pressure about that because I was fairly consensus POE at the time, and then you reconsidered and voted me later on in the phase). But then after your own wagon took off you reconsidered me again and didn't come back to it despite pressure. So that + the lack of push on me today is the piece that doesn't fit for me in a w!True world. I mean, it CAN be. It's not like my wagon has needed your help today. But.

If that's all correct and our wagons were t/t, that changes a lot about where I would expect wolf votes to be (I would expect them to be more spread out).
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I know people can't just take my word for this, but yeah, it would be easy and low-risk to be chanting outside of your house with a pitchfork and torch right now
 
potentialsheltervet said:
I don't know what to do with Nate or Santy's claims so... I guess I'll process that as time goes on.
However is no one willing to consider Santy counter claimed to try and get Nate yoten and is not town? I'm unclear on why Santy is still being village read without further scrutiny.
I mean, I greatly enjoyed the banana back and forth but still trying to be critical.
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To give this more than just a joke quote, I don't see the wolf motivation in Santy's claim. "This isn't going very well for Nate, I should claim a very similar thing"
I think he really thought he had a gotcha that I had role information that only April should have had from his POV.
 
Truenamer said:
I know people can't just take my word for this, but yeah, it would be easy and low-risk to be chanting outside of your house with a pitchfork and torch right now
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(I mean, the obvious tinfoil: You look good by being against a misyeet, and you haven't had pressure at all today so you wouldn't really need to come out swinging. That's why to me the part that looks better for you is yesterday when you were under pressure)
 
NateTheLesser said:
Not totally happy with the ordering of my reads list, but I'm mostly just struggling to figure out a worldview that makes sense. I'm pretty accustomed to being in the hot seat, but usually I have a better idea of where to push instead. Need to sleep on it.

My game state read coming into the day was that if True is a wolf I'd expect to be pushed hard, and if we're both town I'd expect a more "stick with the POE" agenda (I guess this could also apply to Clem since he was also a major wagon). And it feels more like the first than the second. With the major caveat that True himself hasn't been pushing me at all. Pieces don't fit.
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Could you clarify how pushing you versus pushing the POE is different?
 
Animal Midwife said:
Could you clarify how pushing you versus pushing the POE is different?
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To put it a different way, True/me were the consensus bottom POE at the end of yesterday (Clem too, but I don't think he's really in that slot anymore after EOD). So, if True is a wolf I would expect teammate(s) to focus on getting me yeeted instead of him today. If he's not a wolf, we're both perfectly fine pushes today and the POE can be more open.
 
my thoughts last night were that nate's posting felt wooden and subsequent posts haven't really moved me from that position

don't get why he took so long to reveal on that claim when it's proven to be a bit of a timewaster with his reads not developing much at all
 
I dont know if I will be able to put much work today, apologies in advance. But I have a important exam in some hour that I def should've studied more for . I will be near EoD I think

If Nate is a wolf I still think EoD1 needa to be rechecked ugh
 
s
JaggedJimmyJay said:
~ I don't really follow what PSV is doing anymore, and I don't think I town read them.
~ AM and Sporty seem town.
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i agree with the impression of AM and sporty

i think psv is more suspicious if nate is a wolf given posting today
 
Day 2: What Time Is It? PARTY TIME! Vote Tally

JJJ (1) - PSV
Empire (1) - April
PSV (1) - AM
Nate (4) - JJJ, Clem, Santy, Empire
Sporty (1) - Nate

8/10
Winning: @NateTheLesser
Missing: @SportPonies @Truenamer
Deadline: 10pm EDT/9pm CDT/8pm MDT/7pm fantasyland TODAY (~10.5 hours)

highschoolmusical-whattime.gif
 
Santygrass
Animal Midwife
SportPonies

JaggedJimmyJay
Clem J
Truenamer

potentialsheltervet
Aprilthearab

NateTheLesser


this is my gut feeling sort of the players in the game with little thought put into it. it has the potential to be not very good but i'm throwing it out more as a rough expression of my feelings at this moment in time rather

anyone below the top level i could see the case for them being a wolf. i'm paranoid of JJJ simply becaue he hasn't had a moment where he seemed like obvious town to me. but our perspectives are lining up so consistently that on net balance i feel as though he is more likely to be a villager.

w/r/t april, in contrast toward my posting about her last night...at some point, the persistent unyielding push against me starts to become less credible and i especially felt like she didn't really have a good response when confronted with the dissonance in her assessment of my reads. the attempt to deflect to santy felt a bit nefarious in how it was presented and i'm wary of it since i felt the way santy outed was very towny

i could still easily be wrong on those but i felt it was useful to put it on paper, metaphorically speaking
 
(also after sleeping on it santy's response to my pressure was good and while i was skeptical of his line of reasoning on jjj it fits with a v!santy thought process. i was just slightly paranoid of a w/w connection between them. i liked santy's responses significantly better than nate's)
 
Empire said:
Santygrass
Animal Midwife
SportPonies

JaggedJimmyJay
Clem J
Truenamer

potentialsheltervet
Aprilthearab

NateTheLesser


this is my gut feeling sort of the players in the game with little thought put into it. it has the potential to be not very good but i'm throwing it out more as a rough expression of my feelings at this moment in time rather

anyone below the top level i could see the case for them being a wolf. i'm paranoid of JJJ simply becaue he hasn't had a moment where he seemed like obvious town to me. but our perspectives are lining up so consistently that on net balance i feel as though he is more likely to be a villager.

w/r/t april, in contrast toward my posting about her last night...at some point, the persistent unyielding push against me starts to become less credible and i especially felt like she didn't really have a good response when confronted with the dissonance in her assessment of my reads. the attempt to deflect to santy felt a bit nefarious in how it was presented and i'm wary of it since i felt the way santy outed was very towny

i could still easily be wrong on those but i felt it was useful to put it on paper, metaphorically speaking
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I don't hate this, aside from maybe swapping Nate and Clem and moving PSV higher.

She's been a lil off her game today but I still don't think this is PSW.
 
Truenamer said:
I don't hate this, aside from maybe swapping Nate and Clem and moving PSV higher.

She's been a lil off her game today but I still don't think this is PSW.
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yeah i'm very muddled on psv because the thought process feels villagery i just get skeptical of it given view of the gamestate
 
Empire said:
yeah i'm very muddled on psv because the thought process feels villagery i just get skeptical of it given view of the gamestate
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She can be very... off the wall, in some of her thoughts and analysis pathways.

But she's much better than me at identifying wolves, so I sure as heck can't judge.
 
Truenamer said:
Uh

I have reason to believe that time increments may matter for some PRs.

This one isn't mine but, still.
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Also as I was ruminating this was also something that I thought was a town point today. Not sure a wolf has a reason to offer soft role info like this..
 
@Empire what moved you from thinking Nate's claim was an unlikely mafia move to placing him as your top suspect?
 
I believe in most hypothetical 12-player setups, a correct 4-player POE should be game-winning. I sort of think I have a POE:

Nate, True, PSV, April

I say "sort of", because I'm not completely comfortable with Empire just from a gamestate perspective. I wouldn't quite call him a difference check, but I think he's close to that for both Nate and April (maybe PSV too). He may fit in there as an alternate to one or the other.
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
I believe in most hypothetical 12-player setups, a correct 4-player POE should be game-winning. I sort of think I have a POE:

Nate, True, PSV, April

I say "sort of", because I'm not completely comfortable with Empire just from a gamestate perspective. I wouldn't quite call him a difference check, but I think he's close to that for both Nate and April (maybe PSV too). He may fit in there as an alternate to one or the other.
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Isn’t a correct 4 player POE game-winning at game start prior to any village deaths?
 
SportPonies said:
I guess maybe April and AM are the two SDNers I’m least comfortable with right now, but really I don’t know anything at all.
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I'd appreciate hearing your doubts about AM (if you already shared, let me know and I'll find it).
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
@Empire what moved you from thinking Nate's claim was an unlikely mafia move to placing him as your top suspect?
Click to expand...
i believe i elaborated on this - while the claim itself comes across as unlikely, what has he done since then? he didn't even out reads until i prodded him to do so and there hasn't been a lot of expounding on those. he's offered some village reads but seems hesitant to accuse anyone. he he took up a third of the day phase rolling out his claim when he could have spent time actually looking to sort people.

he feels stiff. he doesn't feel like i expect a villager on the chopping block to behave - normally when a villager is going down they'll have all sort of ideas and theories they're throwing out, they'll swing wildly, they'll accuse someone. i don't get that sense from nate right now.
 
i recognize that the game feels challenging and no one quite seems like an obvious wolf, but - usually in my experience the village mindset is get paranoid in such situations and go down the rabbit hole trying to find some reason for someone to be a wolf. i think a wolf in his position would be much less willing to make an accusation.
 
Animal Midwife said:
@Aprilthearab What would you say the turning point was for feeling better about Nate? Also, did you get anything from the Shots game?
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I think he started sounding better mid or late D1 when he switched from wolfy popins to actual contributive content and has stayed that way since then

I didn't actually go back and look at the shots game, I just wanted to know how many people were in it to get a point of reference for number of wolves in a game this size. I know there's been some paranoia around the possibility of three wolves in this game but I think that would be hard to balance and two is more likely. It feels like we've all had trouble agreeing on one or two wolfy vibes let alone three and two makes most sense and would explain the difficulty we've run into
 
Aprilthearab said:
I think he started sounding better mid or late D1 when he switched from wolfy popins to actual contributive content and has stayed that way since then

I didn't actually go back and look at the shots game, I just wanted to know how many people were in it to get a point of reference for number of wolves in a game this size. I know there's been some paranoia around the possibility of three wolves in this game but I think that would be hard to balance and two is more likely. It feels like we've all had trouble agreeing on one or two wolfy vibes let alone three and two makes most sense and would explain the difficulty we've run into
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Both 2 and 3 are pretty resonable numbers, but I agree that it's good to look for two and go from there if the game hasn't ended yet.
 
SportPonies said:
I haven’t shared and the issue is that my doubts are just generalized spookiness because I never completely trust her
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Okee dokee.

I kind of have a sense of general spookiness about both you and AM, just given the brevity of your posts and the fact that I have no history with either of you. At some point though I think that I decided that it was more of a wacky spoopy skeleton displayed on the porch for passing trick-or-treaters kind of spooky and less of an actual menace to be feared kind of spooky.

For the time being I am content to call you both town and move on with my life.
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
Okee dokee.

I kind of have a sense of general spookiness about both you and AM, just given the brevity of your posts and the fact that I have no history with either of you. At some point though I think that I decided that it was more of a wacky spoopy skeleton displayed on the porch for passing trick-or-treaters kind of spooky and less of an actual menace to be feared kind of spooky.

For the time being I am content to call you both town and move on with my life.
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you don’t want to know how many pages of this game I haven’t read so I’ll be content with being a porch skeleton.
 
12 players is a weird number, and in my hosting experience one of the hardest to balance.

In most arrangements, 9 vs. 3 is pro-mafia. In most arrangements, 10 vs. 2 is pro town. That's why one of my first questions in this game was "do we anticipate 3ps?" 9 vs. 2 vs. 1 would be a relatively simpler task from a design perspective. I grant that we've seen no immediate evidence of independents though. I also won't bring up the 8 vs. 2 vs. 2 variant that works numerically.

This post is kind of pointless, I am just thinking out loud as I consider AM and April's exchange. If I am the host I probably go with 9 vs. 3 and offset the town disadvantage with very strong roles. I think it's fine to look for two and go from there either way.
 
SportPonies said:
I feel like there’s a strong possibility of a 3P if there’s only two wolves. 16% is rather low.

Also, you know, paranoia about the fact Zenge was ticking
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I just assumed that was Zenge memeing on me for being worried about a countdown in the signups thread.
 
9:3 used to be the standard for mini games on MS until they realized their town win rates were absolutely in the tank and changed it to 10:3 . this was over a decade ago, right around when i started playing.

i've seen games of this size with 2 wolves but generally village runs light on power roles in such scenarios. i'd expect 3 wolves if the village PRs are relatively strong. i think we'll have a better idea of what's likely when we hit a point to mass claim. i assume a worst case scenario if it's potential XYLO but until that point i don't worry too much about it.
 
Empire said:
9:3 used to be the standard for mini games on MS until they realized their town win rates were absolutely in the tank and changed it to 10:3 . this was over a decade ago, right around when i started playing.

i've seen games of this size with 2 wolves but generally village runs light on power roles in such scenarios. i'd expect 3 wolves if the village PRs are relatively strong. i think we'll have a better idea of what's likely when we hit a point to mass claim. i assume a worst case scenario if it's potential XYLO but until that point i don't worry too much about it.
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So far, the village roles we've seen or been told about are not directly powerful. We have a Vanilla, a Life-for-life swapper, a Fruit Vendor, and a Fruitless Vendor. I do have a PR, as I've softed, but unfortunately it's not what I'd call "very powerful".

But, plenty of us left who might have good roles, so the 3/9 split is still possible in theory. Given how unwolfy everyone's being, I do agree that 2/10 or 2/9/1 feels more likely. Either that, or they're doing great and cackling at us in wolfchat.
 
Animal Midwife said:
Could you clarify what has you village reading her?
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Her off the wall voting patterns, reassessments of her own reads, and general assessment patterns do not feel like her wolf games. Beyond that, hate to say it, but tone is a big part of it.

Animal Midwife said:
Mess?
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Voting off wagon onto someone who's widely village read feels messy to me.

NateTheLesser said:
Also as I was ruminating this was also something that I thought was a town point today. Not sure a wolf has a reason to offer soft role info like this..
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I mean, to be straight with you, wolf-true would be nearly as bad about chattering and softing as village-true.

Aprilthearab said:
I think he started sounding better mid or late D1 when he switched from wolfy popins to actual contributive content and has stayed that way since then

I didn't actually go back and look at the shots game, I just wanted to know how many people were in it to get a point of reference for number of wolves in a game this size. I know there's been some paranoia around the possibility of three wolves in this game but I think that would be hard to balance and two is more likely. It feels like we've all had trouble agreeing on one or two wolfy vibes let alone three and two makes most sense and would explain the difficulty we've run into
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I agree with this.
 
Still don't agree with yeeting Nate. And not totally satisfied with the explanations from those voting him, but I guess we'll see.
 
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