Alright y'all, to calm some neuroticism, this is what the adcoms replied when I asked them about WL movement a while back...
"We are happy to clarify. Being assigned to Tier II means that you are currently assigned to the “top tier” of our Alternate List (as you’ll recall Tier I hasn’t been used in 5 yrs and is referred to as “Accept Full” – meaning you’d only be assigned to that tier if you were accepted, but no seats remained available). In terms of Tier II/top tier, you are in the most favorable position for receiving an offer. The likelihood of an offer is less likely on Tier3 and least likely on Tier 4. Offers are typically made from our Alt List between May and July of each year.
It is perfectly understandable that your memory from interview day is hazy! What you should remember is that last year was an anomaly in that we made zero offers from our Alt List (ie, no offers from any tier). That was the first year in our recent history that not a single offer was made. More commonly 10-20 offers are made from our Alt List each year (from Tiers II-IV, just depends on a variety of factors). Again, the likelihood of an offer is greater on Tier II and lowest on Tier IV.
We hope that this information is helpful and appreciate your continued interest in Cincinnati Medicine"