When you say rejected by a tweet, are you saying that they didn't follow up with e-mails after announcing by tweet that all IIs had gone out? I find that hard to believe, given how they go out of their way to be transparent and communicative.
Unfortunately, the numbers suggest you are probably right. It has nothing to do with being a UM alum. If there are only around one or two dozen IIs left to go, and literally hundreds or thousands of people who still haven't heard, the odds are terrible.
OTOH, they were never that great to begin with, with around 500 IIs going out with over 9K applications. Your odds were always better as a UM alum (around 15% as opposed to around 5%), but still.
Since they have had several R waves, you have to assume you are being actively considered if you haven't already been rejected, even though, you are again correct insofar as they have surely made their decisions by now. The only reason everyone doesn't know is because they are sticking to a schedule, and because they will wait until the very end to let everyone know if case they need to fill in any last minute cancellations.
