Crayola227 said:
↑
I will point out, that the last time she was like this, I was a wolf, she was a villager, and I NK her D1 for just this kind of play. So not sure I buy this play from Kara as anything outside the norm, but if she is a villager right now, I can exactly see how she might be making wolves nervous. I think she's a bit more pointed this time. So not sure if this represents a villager menage a trois of suspicion, or if there's a wolf amongst you 3. I'm guessing the latter, will keep my eyes on you.
Thinks a wolf of these 3. Doesn't think anything out of norm w/ Kara
For crying out loud Coffee, we ALL should know by now, that I generally respond to posts as I go, right then and there. So if I'm replying to a post, 9 times out of 10, I'm replying with knowledge only of what came up to that post, and not after.
At the time I made the comment, I felt that Kara's posts were good wolf hunting. I did not agree with Mel and Moose, who essentially said "oh she was just like this when she was a wolf" I was basically disagreeing with that comment,
thus far. To support this, I referred to a past game and gave my opinion that she was playing like the time she was doing such a good job wolf hunting. Yes, the suggestion I was making was that perhaps those saying "whoa look at this gameplay from Kara, she's wolfy" when I thought it was good, was coming from wolves feeling threatened by her and wanting to discount her. At the same time, would they be that obvious in trying to discount her? Would Mel and Moose do that? I doubt if they were both wolves they would both say that at the same time. So I'm guessing one of Moose and Mel is probably villager, and not both wolves. In that case, that would suggest that one of them is telling the truth that they believe Kara's gameplay is wolfy, even though it strikes me village. So that means I maybe should reconsider Kara's gameplay as suggested by one of two players, since I am not believing they are both wolves. So I still don't think it's crazy, that out of 3 players in this particular scenario I've described, I think that they are not all wolves, at least one is villager telling the truth, likely 2 given the odds in this game of wolf:villager ratio, and that I for my own reasons doubt the whole thing had a w/w interaction buried in there, meaning that 2 were wolves. I entertained that it was 3 villagers. However, if up to 1/4 players are wolf, it might not be wise to determine 3/3 are villagers, and reasonable to think 1/3 are wolves, just by stats. I guess it's my own quirk that based on the nature of the interactions and the stats, that more than one wolf was unlikely, and thinking it was all villager might be unwise. So at the point I said that, I said that I was going to look closely at those 3 players. Yes, I was leaning village on Kara. And yes, I was starting to lean village on Mel. So I guess that means in that whole scenario I'm walking away more suspicious on Moose. But if I am trusting Cheezit, I cannot dismiss that Kara could be wolf. If Cheezit is village and picking up correctly that Kara is wolf, then similarly perhaps Moose is also village and seeing something I don't, in line with Cheezit. I don't know. I think I'm allowed to read that scenario as having a villager in it, and a wolf. And I don't know who that is. I'm trying to keep an open mind.
Is it fair that instead of breaking down my every thought as above on the Kara vs Moose vs Mel thing, that I just said hey, I'm thinking there might be a wolf and I'm going to watch?
There is no inconsistency at the time I said that. As I continued to read, my feelings on Mel and Kara continued to evolve. That's what reading the thread is supposed to do. People should try it someone instead of tunneling.
Crayola227 said:
↑
love the use of the word "wolved" over wolfed, lol, it sounds more srs bsns
also, this bit of back and forth between you and Mel feels... pockety?
and it feels like a lot of people have gotten on KL's case, but then I see moose is unlynching math for crying out loud
was Mel's NPC vote before these jokey votes for math or stats, or after?
A Nothing comment on Moose. What was the point of mentioning that for Mel?
My notes said that I noted that in addition to Moose agreeing with Mel about Kara, that somewhere she expressed her undying love for him.
So I'm more than a little annoyed that picking up something like that, is being seen as a nothing comment on Moose. People should try to tease out why people are agreeing with each other. Is it based on true belief, or is it an attempt at manipulation?
This again was an interaction that was tipping me towards thinking that of Kara, Mel, and Moose, Mel was less likely to be wolf. In terms of pocketing, I didn't see Mel pocketing Moose on thread, so I figured that it was less likely Moose was making that comment as the manipulatee, and that perhaps she was trying to manipulate him. It's possible that she's a villager and it was a true and innocent comment. But I think I'm allowed to entertain otherwise.
I'm really getting annoyed, because you know what, you may not like my giant superposts or my thinking in them, but you best believe that there is in depth reasoning behind 90% of what I do, no matter my affiliation.
I'm also pointing out that while people did not like KL's joke vote, Moose made one too. And I'm pointing out things Moose is doing that may be suspicious. So then I'm wondering why people are going for KL not Moose. How is this not a fair observation? Basically, I'm describing a theory where Moose might be a wolf that is consistent with more than one point I've made about what's happened on the thread. Did I pull the trigger on Moose? No. Doesn't mean I should share my thoughts theories with the class and get input.
Crayola227 said:
↑
for once I'm completely behind Cheezit, and he feels extremely village
WHAT? Didn't she already say she thought there was a wolf between Moose/Mel/Kara and that Kara seemed within her norm... but Mel says she ISN'T in her norm.... how can she both simutaneously think Mel could be wolf and extremely village, and agree with him but simutaneously disagree with him?
Lol. It's completely normal to village read someone, and think that they may be wrong about another player. Ffs, just because you think someone is village doesn't mean all your reads have to then agree with them. This is ridiculous. This is the kind of looking for consistency to be AI that will steer people completely wrong.
Not to mention, if I think there is one wolf between Kara, Mel, and Moose, then why can I not think that wolf is Moose, and therefore Mel is just a mistaken villager? Or even entertain that it could be any other combo of villager(s) wolves(s) among the 3.
I've said over and over and over. It's not just a question of, is the conclusion someone making accurate or not. For villagers, most of the time it will NOT be. It's a question of their reasoning.
That said, what I said about Kara earlier in response to Moose and Mel, was saying that I found issue with the reasoning that so far in the game, she was ONLY consistent with her wolf meta. You will see me disagreeing and correcting people all the time. The fact this happens, doesn't always mean they're a wolf, and it doesn't always mean I think they are a wolf. Maybe. It depends.
There is nothing inconsistent about any of what I've just explained.
Crayola227 said:
↑
OK, thank you, I was flowing with AM, but this idea that she was trying to get people on WM... like, why can't I recall her making this impassioned plea that we forgo all other votes and vote WM for being quiet?
Because she was too busy being cryptic.
However, she's made a strong statement that almost sounds like... lying. I can't tell when you pressure AM enough to just come clean with her thoughts when she's a villager (seems that it happens so rarely), but I will say that it feels like she's actually more forthcoming as a wolf.
So is her earlier crypticness sign of villager AM? No, I'll say that's negated by this follow up post, like where AM finally sees fit to say something of substance, and it comes off as an outright lie.
Click to expand...
Crayola227 said:
↑
I am seriously wondering if there was some way the wolves sniffed out Barkely the village vig. Because otherwise that is just really great luck for them, and big suck for us. I wonder what wolfy abilities you usually see to balance out a vig, I can't recall.
Who was his other PM partner?
Also now we have the issue of the killerleaf ressurection.
I trust Mel. I spoke up for Kara earlier, but I'm side eyeing her.
Seriously concerned about Lupin.
AM & Moose, I have no idea except they are making me side eye. Cubs has a post besides the emoticon that made me squint.
Need to look at who was on killerleaf and BJ again, because those were lynches I did not love.
Not sure my new "method" is going to work in a game this huge, wanted to get out my current thoughts.
Click to expand...
I got bored of analyzing because I feel like the other analyses are pretty good stand alone.
I will mention the "issue of killerleaf ressurection" I don't consider an issue. Also think she has been playing long enough to know there is no way for the wolves to have "sniffed out" barkley as the vig by N1 unless Barkley did relay to PM partner, but it seems way more likely that it was just a lucky hit and I would definitely not immediately think "PM partner"
Um, I seriously don't see how you take issue that I consider KL's resurrection an issue. Maybe I'm not being clever, but Pippy has raised the point in the past that if there is a villager resurrector, they should claim the rez. Unless of course there are reasons they have not to (they have more rezzes, for example). Because sometimes they have clues as to whether or not someone came back villager or not. I think affiliation of rezzes is pertinent.
And yeah, anytime a PR dies, you absolutely should consider if anyone else was going off of analysis vs RNG in the NK pick, lol. Or even redirection. You absolutely should consider if it was a PM partner. You absolutely should consider conversely, if there was something on thread that Barkely said or did that the wolves may have caught on to. Why? Because maybe there was a w/v interaction with Barkley on thread that we could pick up on knowing what we know now, and it could lead us to a wolf. This has literally happened before in a game.
Could it all be random chance? Sure, anything can be. I still don't know why it wouldn't be a reasonable thing to discuss.
this is new
if this sounds cold, but I would want to see at least a quick "hello, busy today, goodbye." post or telling one of her PM partners "Hey I won't be on for lynch" or something.
