WWho Let the Dogs Out? - Game Thread

Veterinary Science Graduate Certificate from UofI
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Caiter92 said:
***lynch coop***

Sorry coop, you’ve been sketchy on thread for me and thinking it over more it’s just way too much of a coincidence dolphin died the same night you found out.
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I'd just like to clarify. There are two wolves down with a definite possibility of three more. And you think the most likely case of catching a woof is based on the fact I'm unseerable? Not just that I'm a woof, I'm an unseerable woof who has been seered and cleared and then killed the seer on the same bloody day I discovered them? Despite the fact that stagg outted there was seer info and they killed him and didn't find a seer. Also despite they got a notification of being seered, granted they didn't know it was seering at the time. Also despite the fact that it was discussed that a seer might be in my group and they knew that too.

Despite all of that, it's most likely that I'm an unseerable woof?
 
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I feel bad for liking the tinfoiling about coop. It's because I always think she's sketchy. I have her in my reads list with "seered, but so so sketchy. But also I always think she's sketchy. Send help" written next to her name haha
 
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Caiter92 said:
I’m really confused here. You were told an unseerable wolf could show up as villager and that makes you less suspicious about coop somehow?
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No. To begin with, I didn't know whether I had any right to be suspicious or not, because I was unsure whether it was a possibility. After I found out it was, I was suspicious. But thinking about it more, the odds of her being an unseerable wolf that happened to be seered and we all know about it sounds pretty low. Obviously not impossible, but I want to focus on other things atm if that makes sense.
 
Coopah said:
I'd just like to clarify. There are two wolves down with a definite possibility of three more. And you think the most likely case of catching a woof is based on the fact I'm unseerable? Not just that I'm a woof, I'm an unseerable woof who has been seered and cleared and then killed the seer on the same bloody day I discovered them? Despite the fact that stagg outted there was seer info and they killed him and didn't find a seer. Also despite they got a notification of being seered, granted they didn't know it was seering at the time. Also despite the fact that it was discussed that a seer might be in my group and they knew that too.

Despite all of that, it's most likely that I'm an unseerable woof?
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I also feel like a lot of the original crux of the unseerable wolf argument about you relied on needing to kill dolphin that night because she told you she was going to look into cray and cray was a wolf. Which we obviously now know not to be true. If you are a wolf I think it would be odd strategy since having a seer in your pocket can be very useful
 
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vetmedhead said:
I feel bad for liking the tinfoiling about coop. It's because I always think she's sketchy. I have her in my reads list with "seered, but so so sketchy. But also I always think she's sketchy. Send help" written next to her name haha
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The sad thing is it's not just you. I don't really filter my thoughts and people really don't get my sarcasm.
 
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vetmedhead said:
I also feel like a lot of the original crux of the unseerable wolf argument about you relied on needing to kill dolphin that night because she told you she was going to look into cray and cray was a wolf. Which we obviously now know not to be true. If you are a wolf I think it would be odd strategy since having a seer in your pocket can be very useful
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Thank you
 
Beagle-Brigade said:
I have no idea how ya'll find the time to go back and read whole pages, I can barely keep up!

The info on cray makes sense to me and I have no reason not to believe it as far as I can see. In the stuff following ziggy stand out to me, I like that they worked to clarify a timeline of dolphin's seering (I'm leaning seer over tracker from the info they gained and the wording of the write up). Pippys responses have made me less suspicious of her today. I'm not too hot on the reasoning of the other lynch candidates right now, I'm going to trust bark and joint the Cray lynch

Lynch Cray
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I'm going with a lynch beagles for the moment for the above post, where jumping onto a lynch with no questions asked felt a little too opportunistic to me.
 
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Coopah said:
I'd just like to clarify. There are two wolves down with a definite possibility of three more. And you think the most likely case of catching a woof is based on the fact I'm unseerable? Not just that I'm a woof, I'm an unseerable woof who has been seered and cleared and then killed the seer on the same bloody day I discovered them? Despite the fact that stagg outted there was seer info and they killed him and didn't find a seer. Also despite they got a notification of being seered, granted they didn't know it was seering at the time. Also despite the fact that it was discussed that a seer might be in my group and they knew that too.

Despite all of that, it's most likely that I'm an unseerable woof?
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I acknowledged it could just be the wolves getting lucky finding the seer. But you also found out about dolphin the same night she was killed. That’s a big coincidence. With other people throwing around the idea of an unseerable wolf before, if it was you, the time line would make sense.
 
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Coopah said:
I'd just like to clarify. There are two wolves down with a definite possibility of three more. And you think the most likely case of catching a woof is based on the fact I'm unseerable? Not just that I'm a woof, I'm an unseerable woof who has been seered and cleared and then killed the seer on the same bloody day I discovered them? Despite the fact that stagg outted there was seer info and they killed him and didn't find a seer. Also despite they got a notification of being seered, granted they didn't know it was seering at the time. Also despite the fact that it was discussed that a seer might be in my group and they knew that too.

Despite all of that, it's most likely that I'm an unseerable woof?
Click to expand...

vetmedhead said:
I also feel like a lot of the original crux of the unseerable wolf argument about you relied on needing to kill dolphin that night because she told you she was going to look into cray and cray was a wolf. Which we obviously now know not to be true. If you are a wolf I think it would be odd strategy since having a seer in your pocket can be very useful
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Agree with this/this makes sense to me
 
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Caiter92 said:
If it stays a 3 way tie I’ll

I acknowledged it could just be the wolves getting lucky finding the seer. But you also found out about dolphin the same night she was killed. That’s a big coincidence. With other people throwing around the idea of an unseerable wolf before, if it was you, the time line would make sense.
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Yes it's a possibility, but the odds are FAR more likely to be literally anyone else. Literally!
 
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Coopah said:
Yes it's a possibility, but the odds are FAR more likely to be literally anyone else. Literally!
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It’s really not anymore far fetched for you to be an unseerable wolf as anyone else.
 
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Caiter92 said:
I acknowledged it could just be the wolves getting lucky finding the seer. But you also found out about dolphin the same night she was killed. That’s a big coincidence. With other people throwing around the idea of an unseerable wolf before, if it was you, the time line would make sense.
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Vmh also makes an excellent point. She wanted my suggestions for who to seer. Why wouldn't I direct her away from the woof pack of that was that case? We know cray was village and that's who she was going to be seering
 
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Coopah said:
Yes it's a possibility, but the odds are FAR more likely to be literally anyone else. Literally!
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Are they though? What are the odds that they got lucky and got the seer on the same night that you found out? Not very high, actually. But sure, if you spread the probability around like “is it more likely to be me or anyone else,” then yes the odds are probably greater that anyone else is a wolf. But that’s not really how it works.
 
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Coopah said:
Vmh also makes an excellent point. She wanted my suggestions for who to seer. Why wouldn't I direct her away from the woof pack of that was that case? We know cray was village and that's who she was going to be seering
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That’s much more convincing.
 
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Matthew9Thirtyfive said:
Are they though? What are the odds that they got lucky and got the seer on the same night that you found out? Not very high, actually. But sure, if you spread the probability around like “is it more likely to be me or anyone else,” then yes the odds are probably greater that anyone else is a wolf. But that’s not really how it works.
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About as likely as as finding the seer any other day
 
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On the other hand, the longer a wolf keeps a seer in their pocket, the more likely it is that the seer will eventually get to the point that they have cleared most of the village without finding a wolf, leaving behind a smaller suspicion pool for wolves to fend off. But this doesn't usually occur until later in the game
 
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Beagle-Brigade said:
Missing: @StayingPositive2017 @Barkley13 @allieh8607 @vetmedhead @MSUcvmHOPE @capri1722
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q6g5o.jpg
 
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Matthew9Thirtyfive said:
Are they though? What are the odds that they got lucky and got the seer on the same night that you found out? Not very high, actually. But sure, if you spread the probability around like “is it more likely to be me or anyone else,” then yes the odds are probably greater that anyone else is a wolf. But that’s not really how it works.
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This is my point. It’s a huge coincidence for it to be the exact same night. It’s really not far fetched to be suspicious of coop over it.
 
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Caiter92 said:
This is my point. It’s a huge coincidence for it to be the exact same night. It’s really not far fetched to be suspicious of coop over it.
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Yeah. I’m not suspicious enough to lynch yet. But for some reason the deliberate misrepresentation of probability from someone who earlier talked about their math brain triggers me.
 
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Coopah said:
Yes it's a possibility, but the odds are FAR more likely to be literally anyone else. Literally!
Click to expand...

Coopah said:
No I'm saying the odds of me being a seered unseerable wolf vs anyone else being any version of a woof
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This argument literally makes no sense. It’s all RNG, as you pointed out earlier. You had the same chance of being an unseerable wolf as anyone else.
 
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Sorry guys, I'm not going to have time to catch up. I will as soon as I get home.

Lynch capri for earlier feels... Nothing has really changed
 
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WildZoo said:
The earlier Ziggy Stardust did make me giggle though :D
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Pretty much all of our animal are named after musicians or music lol. Ziggy Stardust or Ziggy Marley or my male cat and Jasmine or Jazzy for my female. My parents have a cat named Mingus and a dog named Louis. But my dog's race name was just shortened to Tobias lol.

Matthew9Thirtyfive said:
I still like soggy for her.
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No you don't. Shhh.
 
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Sorry was away.

vetmedhead said:
@Lawper did you ever make an updated reads list since that post on pg 27? I feel like you did but can't remember
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Yep, from Page 44:

Lawper said:
Reads so far:

Lean village: Pippy, vmh/meaty (still active and contributive and logical), Coops, barky (from dolphin's results), maybe Allie (generally good posts) and MJ (play looks similar to his village play from before)

Null: M935, ziggy (difficult to read them but M935's PMs seem more genuine), Caits (would need to look into her but not seeing much which is concerning since she's experienced)

Possibly wolf: capri and beagsy just from weird feels from their posts (capri's defense used a similar argument when she's a wolf in Reading to discredit the argument that she wasn't paralleling her vote with AM.... but she did)
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I still feel worse about capri so I'll vote there:
​
Lynch capri​
 
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