According to MSAR and data from previous years, it seems that if you are granted an interview here then you have a pretty good chance of getting in. Last year, 458 people were interviewed for a class of 129. Not even factoring in the fact that between 1.5 - 2x the number of seats are accepted, 129/458 is 30%. Therefore, we know that at BARE MINIMUM (and this is a very conservative value) the number of interviewees accepted is at least 30%. I do not know whether they over-accept or just waitlist everyone who surpasses max capacity, but MSAR reports that on average 25-35% of the incoming class is accepted from the waitlist - meaning that at absolute bare minimum 32 people are accepted off of the waitlist. Considering that we know 129/458 are accepted, that means 329 are either waitlisted or rejected. In the worst case scenario for waitlisters, where all 329 are waitlisted, then that means you have a 9% chance of being pulled off the waitlist.
So according to my calculations, here are my worst (and I repeat, worst) case scenario results:
about 1/3 interviewees will be accepted on interview day, and about 1/10 waitlisters will be pulled off the waitlist.
Does anyone have any data to chime in? any critiques on my analysis? I'm just trying to figure out our chances