Introduction and Methodology
I've been neurotically digging through past threads to figure out when the next round of prematches will be in a bid to soothe my soul with certainty. Sharing my work here so it's not 100% useless.
(Disclaimer: I don't know how to count, so 𝛿days = ±1 day)
Results
Last cycle (EY 2022), per SDN's sample, UTSW released pre-matches on:
- Oct 15th (Friday), and then after 10±1 business days,
- Nov 1st (Monday), and then after 14±1 business days,
- Nov 19th (Friday), and then (assuming a 3-day break for Thanksgiving) after 13±1 business days,
- Dec 13th (Monday), and then (assuming admissions is off-duty between Dec 24th and Jan 1st) after 21±1 business days,
- Jan 19th (Wednesday).
Supplemental Data. In the anomalous pandemic year of EY 2021, per SDN's sample, UTSW released pre-matches on Oct 16th (Friday), Nov 11th (Wednesday), and Dec 17th (Thursday). Relying on this less because of its more anomalous nature.
Discussion
We have 2 Wednesdays on which UTSW has released prematches (Supplemental Data), and we have an average of ~12±1 business days between the first few prematches of EY 2022, so Wednesday Nov 2nd is a possibility (12±1 business days away from Oct 17th).
Yet, we also have an alternating Fri/Mon/Fri/Mon pattern in EY 2022 spanning Prematch Dates #1-4. So, this year, given that prematch batch #1 was on Monday Oct 17th 2022, one could guess that the next batch of prematches may come out on Friday Nov 4th (14±1 business days away from Oct 17th).
Yet yet, our most recent data point about the space between Prematch Date #1 and Prematch Date #2 is 10±1 business days away from Oct 17th. So Monday Oct 31st is also a possibility (10±1 business days away from Oct 17th).
Yet yet ✨yet✨, our most recent data point of the date of Prematch Date #2 is Tuesday November 1st, so that's also a possibility (11±1 business days away from Oct 17th).
TL;DR—predicting the actions of an admissions committee is a futile effort. They've already swayed from last year's precedent re: # of interview invitation dates. I wasted an hour of my life trying to do actuarial science without data and I'm trying to cope with that. Back to making renaissance-style AI art! 😊