I can't tell you anything about your chances (in fact, you should open a "What are my chances" thread rather than ask the same question in multiple school-specific threads), but the thing is, it's not only about the numbers. There is a lot of "numbers talk" on SDN simply because numbers are easy to compare. Unless you have terribly low stats (which you don't), you may have a chance at most schools if you have good ECs and LORs and a good personal story which you can tell really well.
Also, the vast majority of schools (except for Vandy and UC schools, as far as I know) don't screen for secondaries, they send them to everybody. You can find this information in MSAR or on school web sites. Pre-secondary screening is actually is good thing, as it saves you secondary fees, which are substantially higher than primary fees.