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I totally agree with you, and what you are saying is consistent with what I heard from several admissions offices with respect to expected poaching from T5. You are 1,000% correct about all the underqualified people who might throw in an application, but that WILL serve to lower the overall admit rate, even though I hear what you are saying about the admit rate for those with median stats (and above) not changing. It will, however, dramatically alter the landscape for those in the bottom 25% of stats (for NYU), since the competition there will increase significantly.
I heard from several T20 schools that they do not intend to compete with NYU with respect to non-need based aid (i.e., merit money, or free tuition), and I guess it remains to be seen whether money will drive decisions away from them and towards NYU (assuming I am lucky enough to have this decision, a $250,000 difference in debt between Harvard, Penn, Columbia, Chicago, Vandy, etc. and NYU would absolutely tip the scale for me), and, if so, if that causes the other schools to rethink their position.
Either way, it's impossible for me to see how free tuition for all at a T10 school will not drive yield significantly higher, even if it does not propel NYU further up the rankings. Assuming their yield spikes, that will make it relatively more difficult in the future to score an II, since they will not have to meet as many applicants to hit a target class size. This will probably affect this year's cycle, since they already know what their yield was for the just completed cycle, even though that number is not yet available to us.
Thats a really interesting notion. If their yield goes up, they might interview less people but they also might not? Maybe it will just be harder to secure an acceptance post interview. I am interested to see how other schools respond. If a school really wants a candidate, ive heard they will match aid