The AMCAS āTraffic Rulesā document says:
āBy March 15 of the matriculation year, [medical schools must] issue a number of acceptance offers at least equal to the expected number of students in its first-year entering class.ā
So by the end of the next 17 days, they have to have sent out a minimum of 190 acceptances to equal their expected class size.
I couldnāt guess how many acceptances theyāve already sent out since a lot of folks donāt post on these forums or CycleTrack so we donāt have enough data to form a hypothesis unless we hear more from Downstate directly.
Itās possible theyāre cutting it close to the wire given their recent statements about having been delayed, so there could still be a large chunk of acceptances left to issue in the next 17 days, but itās also possible that weāre mostly bound for the waitlist (at best) since we havenāt heard anything yetā itās hard to sayā¦
Weāll see though! As everyone says, itās not over till itās over.