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7summers said:
UCSF Is very specific in who they invite to complete secondaries. They will not send them to you if they don’t think you have a chance of an II. Do it 100%
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Yes UCSF screens before secondary, but I would keep the hope of II down. Even as is, if you read this thread, UCSF sent over 5000 secondaries for 500 IIs. Combine with this late? Of course if you have a skill that they are in need of. Bottomline, if you have the money, go for it. Just like any other med school, if you get an II - good, if not - move on.
 
7summers said:
UCSF Is very specific in who they invite to complete secondaries. They will not send them to you if they don’t think you have a chance of an II. Do it 100%
Click to expand...
ricetomed said:
Yes UCSF screens before secondary, but I would keep the hope of II down. Even as is, if you read this thread, UCSF sent over 5000 secondaries for 500 IIs. Combine with this late? Of course if you have a skill that they are in need of. Bottomline, if you have the money, go for it. Just like any other med school, if you get an II - good, if not - move on.
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but since their secondary is just two very simple optional questions, this makes me wonder what ruins your chance of an II after the secondary?? what do y'all think
 
drscorpio said:
but since their secondary is just two very simple optional questions, this makes me wonder what ruins your chance of an II after the secondary?? what do y'all think
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That’s a good point. In my interview I think they explained it as people who have no chance will not get a secondary (Hours and metrics?) so I guess that’s nice in that they won’t take ur money and then automatically Reject you the next day.

maybe they wait to deep dive into the app once ur complete. So everything is considered before extending the II but not as in depth for a secondary.
 
drscorpio said:
but since their secondary is just two very simple optional questions, this makes me wonder what ruins your chance of an II after the secondary?? what do y'all think
Click to expand...
Well, they must be doing a lot more screening after the secondary to get from 5000 to 500.
 
WeakThought said:
Just got a secondary and sent in my primary in late September. Does this mean someone looked over my app and liked what they saw? Should I fill it out at this point in November?
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Yes definitely! You still have a great chance for II. It probably took more time for admissions to screen primary bc you submitted it in late September.
 
Any rejections or interviews for mid September complete dates?🙂
 
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hey everyone, just wanted to get an opinion on something. if we haven't received a secondary at this point in time, is it safe to say it's a silent R? thanks, and congrats for those who did get II/acceptances!
 
calipremed_33 said:
hey everyone, just wanted to get an opinion on something. if we haven't received a secondary at this point in time, is it safe to say it's a silent R? thanks, and congrats for those who did get II/acceptances!
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I'd say the probability of an A has decreased from the overall ~4% to less than 1%.
 
calipremed_33 said:
hey everyone, just wanted to get an opinion on something. if we haven't received a secondary at this point in time, is it safe to say it's a silent R? thanks, and congrats for those who did get II/acceptances!
Click to expand...
I didn’t get a secondary for a different UC and I’m counting it as an R
 
calipremed_33 said:
hey everyone, just wanted to get an opinion on something. if we haven't received a secondary at this point in time, is it safe to say it's a silent R? thanks, and congrats for those who did get II/acceptances!
Click to expand...
I wouldn't totally give up hope until you get the R, especially if you submitted your primary late. Don't listen to the dude who said that your chances are now less than one percent- I have no idea where they came up with that statistic but there's no way of actually knowing that. For what it's worth, I heard from the admissions office that they're running very behind in reviewing primaries.
 
^ I agree. Don’t count yourself out, there are way too many factors that we don’t even know about that affects their review process. All you can really do is have faith that there’s a seat waiting for you at the end of all this that is perfect for you! You got this fam
 
pears&peaches said:
I wouldn't totally give up hope until you get the R, especially if you submitted your primary late. Don't listen to the dude who said that your chances are now less than one percent- I have no idea where they came up with that statistic but there's no way of actually knowing that. For what it's worth, I heard from the admissions office that they're running very behind in reviewing primaries.
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I'm just trying to be realistic. In a normal year they give out fewer than 300 As with close to 8k apps. This year, they probably got over 10k apps if schools like UMich and Vanderbilt increases are indicative. That's less than 3% pre-II.

Now, I'm assuming they already gave out half of their II's (and assuming a uniform probability), which brings it down to 1.5%. Assuming you get the secondary in now, they'll take some time to review it and the number of II's left will go down, so the probability changes to less than 1%. This is purely going off of numbers, not to mention that not getting a secondary at this time is alarming.

I'm not saying you should give up hope, but without any other info, you have to go off of numbers. 1% sounds low, but not when you consider that pre-II is already low. Using prior information and new evidence is part of Bayesian decision theory which is used often in science.

My data might not be the most accurate, but the principles are. With every event, your probability changes. If you get a secondary the probability changes (300 acceptances/5000 secondaries sent). If you get an invite, it further changes (300/500). With every invite that is sent out, your probability changes.
 
medemac said:

Ecological fallacy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Group statistics =/= individual

Apply if you think you are a good fit.
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Yes because doctors never use aggregate group statistics to evaluate individual chances. If you've ever heard your doctor say, "smoking increases your chances of cancer..." they're definitely going off of aggregate data.

In Bayesian statistics, probability is treated as a personal belief that changes with information, so we're not making any concrete conclusions on the individual but just modeling our 'opinion' of the chances based on previous (aggregate data).
 
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On the portal, where you select the program you want to apply for, I only have "MD/PRIME" selected. After I submitted, I wasn't sure if I had the option to select both MD and MD/PRIME. Does anyone have both selected? Will they not consider me for MD until after they consider for PRIME? Thanks!
 
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