I guess if College Learners says it, it must be true. 😎
The last time I got into a back and forth like this, it involved NYU, and I ended up being right. For whatever reason, the schools don't want us to have this information, so they make it difficult to calculate.
Notice that Duke provides all sorts of charts in the linked page, but they hide the number accepted. The gotcha is that the published numbers from other sources include MD/PhD, which end up corrupting the yield numbers. MSAR has 8 out of 121 enrolled being MD/PhD, and says they interviewed 674, not 547. College Learners has 115 enrolled, and Duke itself show 108 MD enrolled.
MD/PhD is always a lot smaller than MD only, a lot more competitive to get into, and the yields tend to be a lot lower, everywhere, because all of the top programs are chasing the same very small group of applicants. As a result, numbers get skewed. NYU's 65% MD only yield appeared to be closer to 50% before its 20% MSTP yield was stripped out.
I think it's the same thing here. Duke doesn't break out how many of the 250 or so are MD/PhD to yield its 8 enrollees, but, if its number is close to NYU's, it could easily be around 50, which would leave around 200 being accepted out of the 547 MD-only Duke interviewed to yield its 108 matriculants. No way to know for sure unless Duke publishes it.
At the end of the day, you can assume whatever works for you. I happen to think the number is closer to 35%.