Hey! So I too am waiting on several top 20 wait lists and haven't even been accepted anywhere yet. However, I wanted to make this post.
When it comes to large sample sizes like we have in med school applications, it would be quite rare to see extremely large fluctuations in the number of people accepted year to year. So, last year for Icahn, 1046 people were interviewed, 457 were accepted, and 140 enrolled (stats from usnews and comparable to years prior if my memory serves me well). This means that 3.26x the class size was accepted overall. We have usually heard that Icahn is fairly conservative on their initial acceptances, so it would be very hard to see them accepting over 200 people initially (it would not make sense to accept way over the top, initially). This means that ~250 people will come off the wait list at some point.
Your next question is probably, "Well, what if this year is different?" To answer that question we have to ask ourselves, "What has changed this year?" If we look at trends from over the last decade we find that Icahn has hovered around its current rank (18) for a decade, so there is nothing to examine here (unlike NYU which has jumped from the mid 30s to 3 in the past decade). Yes, more people are applying to medical school and the class sizes are not getting any bigger so there will be slightly more selectivity each year (though it would be EXTREMELY unlikely that this would reduce 457 acceptances to some number like 300). In terms of financial aid, we are hearing that it is anything but phenomenal this year from Icahn, so, if anything, more people would decline the acceptance making them accept more people. Lastly, there has been talk that they are increasing the number of flexmed spots per class, though I doubt that number would skyrocket from one year to another though this may have an impact which brings the 457 number down to something around 415 (just my guess).
So, what should you takeaway from all of this? There is a very low probability that wait list movement will be any different this year than it has been for years in the past. I myself have found it very hard to keep waiting (esp. because I'm on a few top tier wait lists and haven't gotten into any school yet), but it's the only option as of now!
Best of luck to everyone!