Take my opinion with a grain of salt bc Kaiser has been my top choice literally since they announced they were opening, but
I think things to consider are what you plan to match in to: if you want to do like ophthalmology or interventional cardiology or be a neonatal rocket neurosurgeon, then yeah, it is probably safer to go to UCSF, but I think if you want anything less competitive or middle of the road like IM or peds emergency med, then I wouldn't just point blank turn down Kaiser.
I think that Kaiser is going to do literally everything they possibly can to ensure that their class is stellar--the resources they have are unparalleled and they have a lot riding on their inaugural class. Of course every school wants you to succeed, but I think the stakes are a lot higher for them so they are going to invest an incredible amount of time and resources. Think about the faculty to student ratio--only 48 students for an entire school of full-time professors who are dedicated to teaching
us, not spread between clinical and other academic duties.
I also think it's foolish to dismiss 150k of debt as inconsequential. Debt is one of the most commonly cited reasons for physician burnout (
To prevent physician burnout and depression, tackle financial stress and
Quality of Life, Burnout, Educational Debt, and Medical Knowledge Among Internal Medicine Residents - PubMed) and it doesn't look that is going to be changing any time soon--unless we get solutions like free medical school. I am biased because I grew up in a low-middle income household, but 150k of debt doesn't just wiped out after a few years of work. That is a serious burden that can impact where and what you choose to practice, your ability to get married or start a family, and lifestyle that you can have in your late 20s/early 30s.
Lastly, remember that Kaiser didn't just pop up overnight. It does have a convoluted history (as literally all healthcare systems and hospitals do), but they are an extremely well-established system, and that will hold weight in future careers--I would be a lot more dubious if it was a free-standing med school. The faculty seems to come from well known and top tier institutions around the US--Dr. Schuster (CEO/founding dean) was the Chief of Peds at Boston'Children's, for example. I work in a large academic institution on the east coast and there is a lot of buzz about KP as a system and the med school.
Anyways. I am procrastinating. I totally respect anyone who would choose UCSF or any other school, but just my extensive thoughts!!!!