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So I crunched some numbers, RFU offers around 759 II (I forget the exact number), and has 189 spots. Thus, chances of an immediate acceptance post II is around 1 in 4 (the admissions people told me they don't over-accept like other schools). Assuming 1/2 of the accepted people and 1/3 of the waitlisted people decide against going to RFU (which seems to be the norm for lower stat MD schools), your total chance of admittance waitlist or otherwise appears to be 1 in 2.
I would like to add that a good 25% of our class comes from the BMS program. So I would say its more like 189 minus something like 45ish people that come from that program. For all other interviewees, you're probably looking at a lower percent acceptance and for less spots because of that